A poll commissioned by Bild showed that 14% of voters would vote for the Union - the same as for the SPD, which is represented by Chancellor Scholz.
Two more coalition pro-government parties - the Greens and the Free Democrats - would gain 12% and 4%, respectively, in a hypothetical election to the Bundestag.
At the same time, the right-wing Alternative for Germany, which also advocates ending support for Ukraine and accepting Ukrainian refugees, would score 18%.
The next elections to the Bundestag will take place in autumn 2025.
more about the party https://responsiblestatecraft.org/sarah-wagenknecht/
A more recent poll (from 2 days ago) finds that 21% stated they would either definitely (4%) or probably (17%) vote for BSW.
It is definitely one of the most interesting developments in German politics and I think it will have a net benefit, if only bc of its authentic opposition to warhorny transatlanticism that otherwise owns German politics and media.
However I can't read this party yet honestly, the sentiment towards it in Germany is a remarkable ball of contradictions. My two cents as a German, when I read the (understandable) hopes that it could be a socialist party.
Although the central founder (SW) was a socialist in her youth, I can definitely not call it a socialist party, they themselves don't. And in the recent press conference regarding their founding they also explained why, while many members come from a leftist tradition, they don't call themselves "leftist" (its important to not that left/right have different connotations in every country), their explanation was along the lines that these words have lost their meaning to the German people.
They gathered some of the best politicians you can get from the German left, their recent recruitment of Fabio De Masi is something hopeful, whose stance against finance capital is one of the staunchest (he is a union/reform-socialist, I guess that's the best you can get in Germany..)
However in their public communication there is nothing Marxist. They carry bourgeoise ideals on their banner. Since the established parties currently increasingly turn towards authoritarian measures and crackdowns against leftist groups there might be a strategic benefit in it for leftist groups though.
Their perception is dominated by other factors since the media exclusively focusses on them:
In Germany the "culture war" is a bit different than in the US, however here their position is not super appealing. They call out a lack of legislation focussing on material conditions of workers, but they draw from the culture war that this necessitates opposition to socially progressive topics and adopt somewhat of a reactionary position in some of these regards. IIRC SW called herself socially conservative.
This is one of the reasons why the parts receives more hostility from the liberals that consider themselves of the left, the other is their stance on refugee policy. While some of their members have in the past advocated for open borders it is their official position that "the numbers need to be lower", their argument is not the ethnic-popular one that the media tries to put in their mouth but that integration-efforts are past its limits to which there is probably some truth to.
Their championing of bourgeoise values and the parts of their position to gender politics that are reactionary as well as their refugee policy seems to be much of the reason for their popularity. Partly bc the media focusses on these things exclusively (and on unfounded speculations they might be "in the Kremlins pocket"). But also no other German party wants peace in Ukraine and the Palestine and that appeals to people as well. They have some credibility bc they address truisms that are swept under the rug, like that the Nordstream bombing was facilitated by the US. The husband of the central founder was literally the only politician who would talk openly and frequently about the influence of US intelligence agencies.
All this will lead to a lot of member-applications from problematic corners os German society. They have announced that they will be careful with their admissions, and I see potential for growth in a "good" direction (probably not socialist tho).
While I see that they do and say some things bc it is necessary in our political landscape and having a traditional socialist party is impossible in Germany, I can't bring myself to see them as Socialists with a practical strategy, but they are also not Nazbols. Currently (I didn't dive into it) I believe they represent a true demsoc approach and flirt with that part of the national bourgeoisie that stands to lose a lot from transatlanticism, like companies who deal with Russia and China.
I believe strategic support is the right way currently, but I doubt they can be swayed towards a Socialist evolution. How they develop will be greatly influenced by how they will deal with the incentives they operate in, like capital interests and the media stirred excitement of reactionary elements for them.
Didn't wanna cloud anyone's enthusiasm, they are good news, especially with the AfD turning more and more radical on the right AND having more and more success in the polls.
Thanks, that's a good overview of the state of things. I agree that the conditions currently don't exist for an actual Marxist party, but there does need to be an alternative vision to AfD, and this party seems like the most promising option right now. German politics is going to be interesting to watch in the coming years I suspect. There are going to be huge economic challenges resulting from the war and economic decoupling from Russia. My expectation is that the current neoliberal system will continue to discredit itself, and this will drive people out of the centre further to the right and to the left.
What's really important right now is to have a credible alternative vision to the one that AfD is peddling. It's basically a battle of narratives of how things got the way they are and how to solve these problems. The left needs to have good answers to these questions that people can get behind.
Thank you for your assessment, yogthos. For what its worth, I think you are spot on.
In Germany huge discussions have erupted on how to cut back on social spending at every corner. How to exert more pressure on the unemployed and force workers to accept less.
As Luxemburg said we'll see the capitalist class rolling back concessions, with all the consequences you laid out. And not only is Germany decoupling from Russia, but also "de-risking" from China
And the left is vastly unprepared/nonexistent, while the right is getting more and more organized.
One more concern to add: while economic opportunities are closed left and right currently I see only one being actively opened which is weapons production.
Should Germany become dependent on wartime-like production than wartime will be certain be it near or far and with US imperialists being as desperate as they are I see little resistance from them. And liberals who have gotten used to justifying wars might be tempted twice bc weapons production might keep the worst economic consequences and hence the AfD at bay
If the Left cannot find answers, there are more ways than one that lead to barbarism
Very much agree with all that. Hopefully the left can find its footing before we have a repeat of the 30s.
I hope with you, and I am trying to do my part here (so that hopefully you guys don't have to do all the work again...).
Off topic but while I have the chance: thank you comrade for your tremendous work here. But also in FP and Clojure. It was a fun realization that you are the same person;)
Just a question for you comrade, is it impossible to have a traditional socialist because of laws or just the political climate?
I'm not too well versed on German politics.
Just a question for you comrade, is it impossible to have a traditional socialist because of laws or just the political climate?
Not that guy but the constitutional court ruled back in the 50s that the german constitution is economically neutral, and as such, socialism is agreeable upon it as long as it preserved the "spirit of the constitution"
The thing is just every institution was filled to the brim with nazis and has the expected trajectory. The Verfassungsschutz, the home security equivalent, considers anything but capitalism to be against the constitution, despite that ruling
Good question, I remember being a bit insecure writing that sentence. Please don't put too much trust in that comment of mine as I still have had little praxis to challenge my analysis. Anyways, my thoughts there were a bit convoluted, not sure if it came across correctly.
What I was thinking about when I wrote it was "you can't have a traditional socialist party that successful", where I meant only electoral success and only in the short-term. Yeah I'd make out mostly political climate as the cause for that.
I didn't want to say that the pursuit of a Socialist party is not worthwhile, I think it is. Although I wonder if an obvious socialist party will be able to get off the ground or whether a "Black Panthers" approach (in terms of being not-too-obviously socialist) would be more promising.
Such estimates are always speculative without praxis to probe ones conceptions though.
There are two parties in Germany that bear the label ML (DKP and MLPD), both have next to zero visibility and are under the observation of the intelligence services. They are considered to be enemies of the German constitution (not surprisingly since that grants the right to private property). I believe they are only not banned bc their influence it negligible and a legal pursuit would bind resources and give them previously unknown visibility.
I would see both as some evidence for my claims but I have to say I am not speaking from personal experience I've had no interaction with either party (I wonder if I would admit to that online).
But yeah I personally know way more foreigners here who are Socialist than Germans. In France and Italy Socialism is way more present as a concept. We have no clue what the word means. For most of us it means nothing. And for the rest its what the the dusty, old men from the "Unrechtsstaat" GDR talked about when they wanted to steal from and control the people. its a failure of the past, not a success of the future. and speaking of it is dangerous, the economy is bad as it is.
We've had the "Radikalenerlasse", the congress for cultural freedom, the CIA building up our media and intelligence services all purging Socialist knowledge from public consciousness while at the same time our "big brother" helped us to become the so-called richest nation in Europe. The material conditions have been comparably fine for us under liberalism, people fear falling back into the GDR trap.
Germany, having been in the center of US Crosshairs of cold-war efforts has left a nasty scar on us, it will take some time and probably a worsening of the economic conditions but most of all a big educational effort from us comrades to get back.
The way I see it, the next years will both make that a necessity as it was never before but also provide previously unseen opportunities for it.
Thats kinda how I see it. Sorry for digressing comrade
No problem, thank you for the write up! Unsurprising that the state is keeping close tabs on both of those parties.
"1919 WILL COMMENCE AGAIN IF YOU TRY TO TAKE OUR GUNS AND GIVE THEM TO UKRAINE!!!"- Alex Jones if he was both German and based.
they need a catchier name for sure. quite interesting development nonetheless
For sure, really hope they grow into a principled socialist party and provide people with a viable alternative to AfD.
I find the socialist part doubtful considering that, on their website, they state they want "politics similar to those of Gorbachev".
It's wild how people admire the guy who directly created the path of immediate destruction of his own fucking country, which was then replaced by a country that those same people all hate.
idk, like are they saying they want to set Germany up to be destroyed and replaced by a wildly more right country? Just say your politics are similar to Hindenburg's then!
Tbh Most germans i know and who were alive during Gorbachev only Like him because he's Seen as the one who "allowed" the reunification of Germany.
His Politics are vastly unknown besides people spouting the Classic glasnost and Perestroika.
On the topic of the Party: i think they themselves dont really know what their direction is yet.
Look at the Formation of the AFD early on. The racist sentiments were apparent but There were still lots of confuses economists in There that genuinely believed that the Former neonazi in His Party was Just magically deradicalized by libertarian thought.
And those Nazis became the thought Leaders over time.
Essentially im saying that while the AFD was far-right from the beginning they didnt know exactly where they are going.
I Hope the Same is true for Wagenknechts Party.
We have room for a more traditional socialist Party. They may have some weird views and If they're successful they will have lots of infighting.
Maybe that leads to those weird views Like the anti-immigration View disappearing.
The left Party is positioning themselves to be a modern socdem Party (hopefully without the Freikorps), even a somewhat problematic socialist Party could be helpful.
If not and they will Just become Like they appear currently Then they will Just BE another right wing party using left-speak to attract voters.
To be clear, I was being kind of sarcastic in an attempt to make the point that people just aren't saying anything coherent when they say things like that they admire Gorbachev's politics, but I do appreciate your insights on German politics.
True, but still, kicking out the one socdem party that colaborated with the freikorps against the spartakist revolutionaries is still a win in my book.
I mean, If I can hope for the KMT to win against the DPP in Taiwan for strategic reasons, in this case I could bury the hatch with the SPD just deep enough to accept a strategic benefit would there be one.
But there isn't: The defining difference seems to be that BSW will obstruct US-led Western Imperialism through rapprochement with RU and CN and will not give weapons to IL while the SPD will do the opposite of all that
BSW aren't socdems they're somewhere between Strasserists and Nazbols. They want the welfare state, just without the odd minorities
It seems a little ultra to say they are between Strasserism and Nazbol.
IMO they are classic "Christdemokraten" minus the religious invocation, their policy is exactly that of Helmut Kohl in nearly every regard.
What is different is the media and societal context they are embedded in. Large parts of society are reactionary about immigration and the media love themselves a "red/brown" alliance, creating a feedback loop. And that they broke from the left created mechanisms of its own that play a role.
Its still concerning, but remember sending military to Mali and creating Frontex is well within the realm of socdem anti-immigration action.
I am concerned about what they say and some of the support they draw but so far their rhetoric has been qualitatively significantly different to the likes of the AfD (I think?) in that its not ethno-popular/"völkisch"
IMO what they say is well within what socdems say/do. But its not my rabbit hole, if you can educate me otherwise I definitely would want to know (German texts are fine too)
If we're in agreement they're basically socdems ecomoically I point you towards Sarah Wagenknechts fight against cancel culture and the queer friendly policies of the Left party as to where I got somewhere between Strasserists and Nazbols from.
I mean, they're not yet, but they aren't actually anything yet but a canvas to project onto. But a continued existence of this party only ends one way.
The queer.de article has a pretty good summary of how far this goes
Thanks comrade! I have some disagreement about your strong admonition. We are talking about the only party plausibly in the next Bundestag that's demanding a stop of weapons exports to ultraright genociders - thats gotta be worth something.
Be sure that I agree with you that some of her statements border a reactionary de-legitimization of gender struggles and I oppose that.
But some of what queer.de writes here I can't follow. For example: They claim Wagenknecht is shifting blame for rising inequality onto queer people and the single source they give is this quote of hers:
Open-mindedness, anti-racism and the protection of minorities are the feel-good labels used to conceal rude redistribution from the bottom to the top and give their beneficiaries a clear conscience. And they are not contradictory: marriage for all and social advancement for the few, quotas for women on supervisory boards and low wages in areas where women work in particular, state-paid anti-discrimination officers and a state-induced increase in child poverty in immigrant families.
In my opinion their interpretation is completely unfounded, to me that quote sounds like an accurate critique of pink-washing reading into it that queer people are to blame for inequality seems a bit disingenuous. It seems like the authors have a gripe with Wagenknecht. That's understandable, she never explicitly speaks out for queer people (to my knowledge) and only every decries the discourse as a "distraction", I understand being pissed at that.
But a continued existence of this party only ends one way
What way is that? I can't see that even "their continued existence" would end in some kind of purges?! I don't look at it without concern but I believe the continued existence of her party is a good thing!
A part of it is because I have finally lost faith in the only party I ever supported "die Linke". With their uselessness in opposing reactionary wars, from an anti-imperialist perspective, they have outlived themselves. Not only that they refuse to take part in leftist peace protest about Ukraine, when Israel began the hot-phase of their genocide the position of "die Linke" was terrible, I get that you have to condemn Hamas as a German party, but going on and on about them wanting to instate a Islamist dictatorship was proactively clouding the real cause for war and was playing Israels fiddle of necessitating the extermination of Hamas by all means. Eventually they were just about able to adopt a cease-fire position, against huge inner-party opposition, but AFAIK until this day they never demanded the end of weapons export to Israel. While at the same time they are demanding the gov to pressure Qatar to end their support of Palestinian resistance. Jan Korte, one of their members of parliament, is even demanding the gov to pressure egypt to open their borders to, de-facto, finally facilitate Israels plan of ethnic cleansing: https://www.fr.de/politik/linke-kritisiert-regierung-wegen-untaetigkeit-92741296.html
And on a personal level: I am involved in ceasefire protests. We contacted "die Linke" from the very beginning, they nervously refused everytime - even when we were still strategically moderate. Fuck that, if I have to have a liberal, at least I want one with a backbone and an anti-genocide stance.
As I have laid out elsewhere, Germany, and the EU as a whole, has taken a path of doubling down on war with Russia and from what I have seen these last years "die Linke" won't do shit about it, to me they are now just over the verge of being appropriated by imperialist forces. BSW, and Wagenknecht/Lafontaine in particular, are the only ones with a credible/longstanding anti-war stance and as an anti-Imperialist on that front they have more to show than any other party.
Sorry if I got a bit emotional, I used to feel connected to "die Linke" and I am disappointed.
At the Rosa Luxemburg Conference last Saturday a Member of BSW said she wants to fight the Causes of Immigration and she named fighting people Smugglers as one way to do that.
Yeah they aren't great, but if they manage to undermine the AFD I'm all here for it.
Wild to think that only 32%- mildly less than a third- of German voters, according to polls, aren't economically suicidal NAFO trolls then. Maybe it'll take the Euro going the way of the Reichsmark for the country to learn...
It takes some time to deprogram people from many decades of conditioning and propaganda.
It's also a chicken and egg problem: an alternative has to have some level of viability to attract large numbers of people, but it isn't viable unless it attracts a lot of people in the first place.
That's true to an extent, but we also see how new ideas can rapidly gain momentum. Unfortunately, we mostly see this happen with right wing ideas like MAGA in US, RN in France, and AfD in Germany, and so on. Clearly it's possible to get a lot of people mobilized if your messaging is appealing. We need to figure out is how to package communist ideas in a way that are relatable to people who are falling out of the mainstream.
I don’t know much about German politics but why is the Christian party so popular? Are they the main opposition?
Do you mean the CDU? The christian democrats? They're not so much a Christian party as they are the centrists. "Christian democracy" in Europe did have initial Christian ideology at its center but at this point it's a catch-all term for status quo supporting liberals, especially in central Europe.
Yeah I was talking about the CDU/CSU. I remember learning about Christian democracy and how they seek to uphold the nuclear family and patriarchal structure in that regard. That’s the definition I learned, but like you said, it isn’t actually how it’s done for certain parties.
The Christian democrats in Germany were just at the right place and right time at the end of the cold war to be the universal anti-communist party. They're one of those big tent type liberal (i mean conservative) parties. They've managed to remain so popular ever since because they're the favored party of German manufacturing. Like I remember the CEO of Siemens used to follow around Angela Merkel to international meetings sometimes.
I think the Christian party isn't as theocratic as something named that way would be in America, just as the social democrats aren't very impressively socdem [even as far as that goes]. They are old names that reflect the relative alignment of these parties, such as the nominally Christian party being more conservative, but they aren't a clear statement of values.
Are they the main opposition?
For the first time in upwards of a decade as the coalition between green neoliberals, social democrat neoliberals and unabashed neoliberals keeps yucking it up.
They're popular because this is a deeply, DEEPLY conservative country. If it had it's way, we would've never left the 1990s, and that is the promise the CxU delivers. Nothing ever changes.
