@carpoftruth@hexbear.net commented about a video Simplicius posted on how shitty US air defense actually is, which I encourage you to have a look at. I thought I'd post the rest of his piece as it pertains to Israel/Palestine; the Russian bits are also somewhat interesting but given the slow territorial progress it's not really as important right now.

SITREP 1/28/24: US Troops Suffer Fatalities in Strikes as Escalation Grows

From Simplicius' substack. I am generally not going to post the photos there and won't be quoting the full article.

I get tired of saying “things are heating up” but…things continue to really heat up. The first direct troop deaths have finally begun rolling in as warhawk voices in the US cry out for total war...

There seems to be some major disagreement or deliberate obfuscation on US’ part as to where the troops were hit, exactly. The above resistance statement says multiple bases were hit. Most are assuming the fatalities were in al-Tanf base in Syria—the illegal base the US uses to facilitate ISIS and train terrorists to agitate against Assad, as well as to block the all important Syria-Jordan border-route to keep Syria isolated and economically stifled. But in fact the US claims the hit was not at al-Tanf, but just over the border at a base called ‘Tower 22’ on the Jordanian side.

It’s understandable how things could get so confusing, what with so many illegal American bases strewn about like candy wrappers, and all. But in reality, this is likely an attempt to downplay and conceal US’ al-Tanf activity and give the appearance of legality by misdirecting everyone to the Jordanian base which US actually has legal permission to be in—unlike al-Tanf. But before we go on, I’d like to remind everyone of this report. I may have posted it long ago—it’s from an Iranian attack in 2021. But it is an absolute must watch. I strongly, strongly urge everyone to watch this below and see if you don’t come away with a different opinion of the ‘invincible’ US military as portrayed by Hollywood.

Not only are there no working air defenses to speak of, but the troops and generals themselves leave much to be desired. Can you even imagine these people on the frontline against Russia in Ukraine? The majors and generals in the video are brought nearly to tears by a few Iranian bottle rockets, with the base commander desperately urging his troops to abandon the base and spread out in the desert. A lot of people clinging to the old Hollywood stereotypes of American supremacy are really out of date and have no idea what the American military is currently like—nor have ever had any idea of what some of America’s most vaunted weapons truly performed like in real combat settings: [Headline from 1992: New Study Cuts Patriot Missile Success Rate To 9 Percent]

And for those who think “How could this be? The US was invincible during the Iraq War in 2003”—well, I have some news for you. There was no war, it was a total sham pysop operation, which I covered in depth here... If that wasn’t bad enough, US troops are even taking casualties on the Texas front...

Now there’s “rumors” that Israel is gathering on the Lebanese border and is getting ready to launch a huge invasion up to the Litani River, of which we wrote about here long ago. If there’s any truth to that, then we can surmise any such escalations with Iran as this new strike could potentially even be a falseflag—whether of the USS Liberty variety, or of the Pearl Harbor variety where something is “let through” on purpose. Or it could simply be Iran drawing Israel and the US into a war it wants because it knows it can win it through its vast proxies. There are many possibilities as yet. Hard to imagine, though, that Israel really wants a piece of Hezbollah given their inability to even put a dent in Hamas:

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The only thing that’s certain is election year has just begun and things are already melting down faster than anyone could imagine. To be quite honest, it’s difficult to imagine how this situation could resolve without either a total US withdrawal from the Middle East or a new major war. The problem in both scenarios:

1. If the US withdraws, it will be viewed as the mother of all failures and weaknesses for the Biden administration, akin to the Afghan withdrawal x 100. I have no idea why it should be viewed that way, when in reality it’s a giant win for Americans to disentangle their country from globalist and MIC pursuits, but that’s how it will be spun by the totally compromised media which is the enemy of humanity. Most Republican warhawks will of course agree and stoke this interpretation as well, as they’re on the MIC payroll.

2. If Biden escalates and orders major strikes on Iran itself as Lindsey Graham and others are now cheerleading for, it could lead to an escalatory cascade that would shut down the entire region by engulfing it in flames, crashing the world economy to new levels, which would be a massive shock to any establishment re-election chances this year.

Don’t even bother thinking about boots on the ground, if such a thing was possible it would take a year or more of preparation. Remember the Iraq invasion required 6 months just of transporting materiel and assets to the region, staging them, etc. But Iran wouldn’t let you stage them because it has far more sophisticated modern ballistic systems than anything Iraq had, which means large troop concentrations and armor/materiel staging areas could be hit and wiped out long before zero hour. Don’t believe me? Just watch the video at the beginning, the US army general says it himself toward the end: he states the accuracy of Iran’s ballistic missiles was shocking and they hit “pretty much everything they wanted to hit.”

So ground invasion is out—that’s not happening. The only thing they could possibly attempt is a long-spanning aerial campaign. But to even remotely scratch Iran’s capabilities would require a vast campaign lasting minimum 6-12 months and probably much longer. Remember, all of NATO mustered for 3 months against little Serbia with 6 million people and barely managed to destroy anything of worth. Iran has a 90 million population and a country probably a hundred times the size of Serbia, not to mention a far larger military. How long do you think it would take NATO to even put a dent in that from only an aerial campaign?

In short: it would take years, and during those years, Iran would shut down every major maritime and economic chokepoint in the region, crashing the global economy. If you thought a few ships being hit now was bad, wait til you see the nominal Iranian forces rather than Houthis hitting everything in sight—it won’t be pretty. And I’ve beaten the point before about how difficult it would be to even find targets in the decentralized vastness of Iran, just like in Yemen.

Here’s a photo of a secret Yemeni launch site as an example. These can be strewn by the hundreds or thousands throughout the deserts, and no amount of advanced “ISTAR” will locate them.

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And as of this writing, rumor has it there are some assets en route:

At least 6 U.S. Air Force KC-135 Aerial-Refueling Tankers, most from March Air Reserve Base in Southern California, are heading Northeast across the United States and preparing to Transit the Atlantic towards the U.K. and Europe. I wonder what kind of Aircraft they are Refueling?

So there is potential for some escalations, though it could merely be precaution as always. I think US will continue looking for a diplomatic solution, as it knows how indigestible both of the options above really are. It will continue looking for ways to de-escalate, perhaps even advancing the talks of withdrawal from the region so as to signal to Iran that it’s backing out, though perhaps dragging their feet in the process to make the ‘pull out’ as drawn out as possible and more symbolic in nature.

The US looks weaker than ever so of course a token strike of a kind is possible, to signal some impotent brawn to its now demoralized partners. But this won’t accomplish anything and will only put US troops in the region in increasing danger. The truth is, the entire current framework looks highly orchestrated between the resistance axis, particularly of Russia, Iran, and perhaps China. The reason is that just as Russia tied up the Empire in Ukraine, Iran began its strangulation maneuver in the Mid East, and look how ‘elegantly’ it’s all working out: Europe is being entirely cut off from cheap energy while Russia and BRICS gain not only some of the most powerful energy producers but also the countries responsible for the most important maritime chokepoints; i.e. Egypt and the Suez/Red Sea; Ethiopia and the Red Sea; Iran and Saudi Arabia for the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, etc.