Considering the current pace of the offensive though, it may take maybe even more than a year, so there’s still dark says ahead for both the Ukrainian and the Russian-speaking people of that country.

Yeah, I was originally thinking about 6 months or so (so, 3-4 more months) to get the entire Donbass, though I've seen some ideas floated around that once Russia gets a few breakthroughs in the front, and Ukraine is sufficiently weakened, then they can start rolling up Ukraine's forces all the way to the Dniper river. So that would presumably shorten the operation and that we're just in the slow phase before the pressure is too much and it all crumples at "once" (still weeks to months).

But if Russia decides to take more, I could see this taking a year or longer. Especially depending on how much weaponry Ukraine is stockpiling in their cities and fortifications away from the front (more safe), versus taking it to the front (less safe). Of course, all the weaponry in the world won't help you without enough men to use it.

And of course you have to wonder if all this ugly shit could have been avoided if the negotiations weren’t used as an excuse for grandstanding from Ukraine, or if this would have been the result anyway. Hell, or simply if Ukraine had actually done something about the Neo-Nazi influence in the country and continued the pre-2004 neutral foreign policy.

Yeah. Though speculating on alternative realities is basically non-falsifiable whatever you predict so, for me at least, it's only interesting as a theoretical exercise, not to pass judgement on what you think Ukraine and Russia would have done in a parallel universe. Though I'm very confident in saying that the wrong side won the Cold War if you care about things like the betterment and stability of humanity.