I know this is an impossible question, the future is chaos, but we can at least identify and discuss some key factors.

When I say "successful leftist revolution" I mean one that happens soon enough to prevent, or have non-negligible odds of preventing, the collapse of human civilization as we know it due to climate change.

In all likelihood I think we're fucked as far as climate change is concerned, but we should still try to improve our odds. There's no prize for correctly predicting that we're fucked.

  • coinflip [none/use name]
    1·
    4 years ago

    Personally, I think the odds are higher in the Trump timeline, enough so that I consider a Trump win the better outcome, but I also think the risks are higher. It's just that the risks are outweighed by the broader risks we face from climate change.

    Under Trump

    Something sure as fuck is gonna happen, but it may or may not be something we like. The left is weaker and less prepared than the right. While fascist aggression under Trump would probably galvanize a subset of everyday people into action, and the ranks of the left would probably swell, it might be too little too late.

    However, and for me this is the key point: if the police lose legitimacy under Trump, then a lot of things become possible. The left can act outside the law without the entire public condemning it immediately, and the state will have to temper its retaliation to avoid further public backlash. I can imagine success this way.

    Under Biden

    I think lib support for protests and riots would dry up completely. Lib support is a weird thing, because libs themselves don't do anything, but I think their feelings still have an effect. I think a Biden 2020 timeline slows down the protests enough that they don't go anywhere.

    On the other hand, we have some breathing room to gather strength and prepare ourselves before shit hits the fan. The question is, in my mind: do we have time for the Biden route? Personally, I really fear that we don't.