I know this is an impossible question, the future is chaos, but we can at least identify and discuss some key factors.
When I say "successful leftist revolution" I mean one that happens soon enough to prevent, or have non-negligible odds of preventing, the collapse of human civilization as we know it due to climate change.
In all likelihood I think we're fucked as far as climate change is concerned, but we should still try to improve our odds. There's no prize for correctly predicting that we're fucked.
Opinion seems pretty divided here. I saw someone on this site a day or two ago saying they would vote for Trump because accelerationism. Not voting for Biden is cool but voting for Trump is completely insane.
Anyone around here deciding to vote for Trump deserves to get bullied hard. It's actively supporting fascism and hurting fellow comrades.
Yeah, he is literally about to start rounding up antifa/ BLM "terrorists." These are dangerous times.
BLM activists started dying under Obama. This shit is not new.
Biden's not going to be rounding up leftists in all likelihood. Not in the manner of disappearing people that Trump is now.
He won't show support or give people protesting anything, but there will be a difference in sending state actors to kidnap protesters like Trump/Barr are doing now.
Anyone around here deciding to vote for Biden deserves to get bullied hard. It’s actively supporting fascism and hurting fellow comrades.
Nothing wrong with that. I'd never vote for Biden. I'll probably vote green to try and get them more federal money (that'll probably be taken away anyway but whatever) and there's some important local races that actually make a difference.
PSL is polling at nowhere near the 5% threshold nationally and are missing on A LOT of ballots.
Vote third party. That's a much better display of electoral power than not voting whatsoever because it shows that you care enough to vote but that the Democrats have to actually do meaningful things to get it.
Nah, dems won't actually do meaningful things. They'll just scold you for voting third party.
Then you can laugh at them. Win-win.
But seriously, no one is suggesting we can get concessions from the Democratic party out of the goodness of their hearts, or that getting concessions out of the Democrats is a goal in itself. Ultimately, the Democratic party should die or be transformed beyond recognition. In the meantime, however, the leaders of the DNC will do what they can to hold onto power. It's not naive to say they will be willing to make concessions to hold onto power if that's absolutely necessary. Voting third party is a good way to try to move toward that situation.
It's not a huge contribution but it's also almost no effort to vote Green.
So if Biden is more accelerationist because Obama led to Trump, do you think Biden will lead to something even worse than Trump? Like a straight up Q president maybe? I could see that...
If Biden wins though, I'm not sure it will be better or worse for the left. They aren't going to let a soc Dem challenge them either way, but if Biden wins they won't have to worry about it for a while. I guess in that scenario a 2024 Dem primary isn't out of the question though so maybe I'm wrong.
every action causes a reaction. And the conservative backlash to Obama has been this increase in White Supremacist and total dismantling of civil rights legislation, including the rights to vote by Black people. If Biden wins, whether the coalition is white and Black, or young and old. Prepare for the reactionary backlash to be full-blown calls for genocide of democrats.
I think we are basically between a rock and a hard place. Neither candidate is ideal. But I can see Trump continuing to receive mounting and increase hostility from most of America and bringing a balkanization or yoke tightening so violent it leads to a backlash of resistance.
Preaching to the choir. After our long entmoot we have decided that both Trump and Biden are bad and that pretty much whatever happens will be bad.
I think almost undoubtedly Biden win.
The left right now is a real unorganized mess. Strike breaking laws and anti-"gang" laws made it nearly impossible to organize in person. The left is just now figuring out the use of social media for mobilization and meetup.
If Trump wins the quicker rapid acceleration into fascism means the left is as it is now. Worse armed, worse organized, and already a rhetorical enemy of both the right and the state.
If Biden wins (I think) it'll give at least four year window of to further organize before we have President Carlson/Cotton/Whoever.
I agree with this take. In what situation has the revolution been hastened by a fascist victory?
Cuba wasn't a fascist victory, it was decades (centuries, really) of imperial dominance. Russia also wasn't a fascist victory - the libs had just won and that paved way for the communists to carry the torch.
Batista was definitely one nasty motherfucker and so was the tsar. I don’t know of Batista being explicitly racist but the tsar blamed Jews for everything and the Black Hundreds were definitely a proto-fascist gang (like the Freikorps).
I’m reading Cuba Libre right now, it’s all about Cuba during the revolution, with many parallels to the current situation in the USA, although things have actually not gotten as bad here as they were in Cuba under Batista.
I don't know about Nicaragua but none of the rest of those were after fascist victories.
Did Japan win? As far as I remember, they lost WWII and got kicked the fuck out of the rest of Asia. And they were acting in those countries as an imperial power. Repelling a foreign empire is completely different from electing homegrown fascists. Which is my point. Nowhere did fascists gaining power advance a revolution in the same country (or at least if it has happened it's very rare for it work out that way; like I said, I don't really know much about Nicaragua's situation).
I agree with the general point of your post that were not near revolution and need to focus on working class organization, I just have a few nitpicks.
And on the other hand to that, it gives 4 more years for the far right to become brownshirts and organize.
You're right Biden won't slow this down, but the right has been hearing up for this seriously since Obama was nominated for president. There's a limit to right wing organization outside of the state apparatus in a fascist (or falling into fascism) country. Not to say they aren't useful allies of fascists, just that there's a limit to outside right wing organization.
Richard Spencer is a grifter and has been struggling for money for a long time having been deplatformed as a Nazi, he endorsed Biden to try and get into liberal circles imo. Not for any ideology, but for the money.
Yeah I completely agree, and that would seem to support that having a president that doesn't outwardly support them would be a detriment to them at least in the short term, no?
Trump probably.
Or at least it would happen quicker, if it were to happen at all. Accelerationism and all that.
The tradeoff is that, while a crisis is more likely under Trump, fascist opposition might also be more effective under Trump.
I honestly disagree. A Trump loss would make the right more dangerous and deranged than it is even now.
effective under Trump
What about the last 4 years has associated Trump with "effective"? He couldn't even invade Iran or coup Venezuela. Whereas if it was Hillary, Maduro would have been Gaddaffi'd already.
in a nutshell: fascists can get bold under Trump. Trump himself isn't the threat.
Well, people don't tend to stay with an ideology that is humiliated live, that's not how radicalization/polarization works.
Trump will not start another war. He'll just continue to escalate geopolitical tensions to extreme levels.
If he's going to start a war with anyone it'll be China. But as I said, I really don't think it'll happen.
China is the very, very last country Trump will start a war with. The US does not go to war against great powers unless directly attacked.
The future is hell either way, so fuck it:
If Biden wins the libs are going to pretend that everything is fine, including the cops and rising fascism. After all, their sanity depends on it.
When we tell them things are still shit most of them will call us the problem and make us a scapegoat, which is already happening in real time. If Kamala eventually becomes president things will get even worse for leftists.
If Trump wins fascism will obviously still rise, but single minded libs are more likely to notice and even care since they can put a face (Trump) they hate on it. However the fascism will be faster and more direct than under Democrats.
A successful revolution? Well... I doubt that'll happen without other countries helping us, which could start a war or even a world war. Sorry.
But if we're talking about the odds of just starting a revolution, then it'll be after a Trump win. The punishments will also be far harsher under his reign, especially if he doesn't follow term limits 4 years from now.
As for climate change... yeah, we're fucked either way. You want to improve your odds with that, you'll need to start saving to move somewhere that might actually benefit from the first few waves of climate change way north of the equator.
I don't think trump is going to go for the reelection after his two terms. He will choose a succesor, with whom he will campaign extensively, and it will become a party dictatorship, similar to what happened with PRI in mexico, where the election norms are observed only in name. This will let libs keep on with their life because "democracy" isn't under threat, so the GOP sponsors can continue to run the country from their country clubs.
That does sound way more practical. Plus his successor would probably end up being one of his kids. Cool monarchy shit.
You KNOW the trump nutters can't wait to vote for his family.
if anything bad happens the liberals will blame it on the republicans controlling the house or the senate or whatever the fuck happens in your shitty ass political system
I'm starting to think that Balkanization is the best hope we have for eventually creating revolutionary conditions as it would at least break the imperial stranglehold the US has over the world (and this is different from accelerationism), among other things. Say if Trump won under obviously corrupted conditions or he straight up lost but was able to somehow stay in power (and Biden is just like "aww shucks Mack I guess there's nothing I can do but give up"). It's a long shot, but if that happens I think there's at least the start of talk of secession on the west coast. I don't think it would go anywhere yet because I think capital would make the case that it would be a bad idea economically for a state to leave the union. But I think it gets the ball rolling and if Trump and the GOP then go full mask off fascism then I could see Balkanization maybe happen over the next 4-5 years.
I think they were saying that's fine because it stops American imperialism.
Nice thread some good perspectives.
Electoralism is a mental trap imo.
Electoralism I always took to mean "trying to achieve your goals through politics."
Personally, I think the odds are higher in the Trump timeline, enough so that I consider a Trump win the better outcome, but I also think the risks are higher. It's just that the risks are outweighed by the broader risks we face from climate change.
Under Trump
Something sure as fuck is gonna happen, but it may or may not be something we like. The left is weaker and less prepared than the right. While fascist aggression under Trump would probably galvanize a subset of everyday people into action, and the ranks of the left would probably swell, it might be too little too late.
However, and for me this is the key point: if the police lose legitimacy under Trump, then a lot of things become possible. The left can act outside the law without the entire public condemning it immediately, and the state will have to temper its retaliation to avoid further public backlash. I can imagine success this way.
Under Biden
I think lib support for protests and riots would dry up completely. Lib support is a weird thing, because libs themselves don't do anything, but I think their feelings still have an effect. I think a Biden 2020 timeline slows down the protests enough that they don't go anywhere.
On the other hand, we have some breathing room to gather strength and prepare ourselves before shit hits the fan. The question is, in my mind: do we have time for the Biden route? Personally, I really fear that we don't.
To put it short: Joe Biden winning devastates the left. If he wins, most libs will no longer give a shit about state violence against PoC, will no longer care about any kind of economic or healthcare reforms, and no longer care about our wars of empire happening around the globe (though they don't really care about this anyway). If he wins, we don't get to talk about M4A, $15 min wage, free college, reigning in the military-industrial complex, and so many other leftist policies for at least 8 years (maybe 16 if Harris runs after Biden, which she will).
Edit: With "talk about" I mean in a mainstream way; of course we'll keep shitposting about these issues until we're hauled off to the camps.
Why would Joe Biden winning devestate the left?? Everyone on the left knows that electoralism and the DNC suck. Bernie grew strong under obama.
Some people are so wrapped up in justifying their votes/non-votes that they ignore history.
I'm not denying that the left is in one of the best positions it's been in for years. However, I think a lot of these ideas we're championing got a lot of headway with mainstream libs because of Trump, or, rather, as a reaction against Trump and an increasingly deranged capitalist class. Will these libs still care about these issues once another corporate Dem takes office? I'm inclined to think not because history shows libs don't hold their own accountable, especially the corporate wing. I hope I'm wrong, honest.
Everyone knows ghouls feast off of decaying corpses, and there will be plenty once he nukes SS and Medicare.
I don't think either timeline changes the overall odds. Joe Biden being in office won't change our priorities. Moreover, in the list of things that will help advance socialism, 'more time' isn't very important. A revolution will happen when we organize around our material needs, and our progress towards that will not change whether or not Biden gets into office. A revolution will only happen if the left advances an actual alternative to capitalism based on addressing people's material needs.
