Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:0-1 points: just 6%!1-2 points: 22%2-3 points: 46%3-4 points: 74%4-5 points: 89%5-6 points: 98%6-7 points: 99%— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020
You'll sometimes see people say stuff like "Biden MUST with the popular vote by 3 points or he's toast". Not true; at 2-3 points, the Electoral College is a tossup, not necessarily a Trump win. OTOH, the Electoral College is not really safe for Biden unless he wins by 5+.
His second Tweet is more helpful than the first
We have the dumbest fucking system.
It's a pretty smart solution to the problem it intends to solve
hey look accommodating slavery is hard