We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.

We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).

We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.

We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.

So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.

Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?

  • captcha [any]
    ·
    3 years ago

    This all checks out. If the GOP has the slightest majority they will slam any legislation they want to through congress. I think the only reason why they wouldn't is because the congressional GOP doesn't care as much about abortion as GOP judges. Its really an outspoken subfaction of the GOP, catholics and evangelicals, that give a shit about abortion. And those factions, particularly the catholics, have been correctly applying pressure on judges to get Roe v Wade overturned. I don't know how much they have invested in congress.

    That's all loose speculation. What I can say is the GOP will probably be in the position you mentioned and if they even float the idea of doing it they will.

    There's also the question of states rights. If Dems codified Roe-v-Wade into law the GOP would over turn it on the basis of states rights. If the GOP tried a nationwide ban of abortion it theoretically could be overturned on the same basis. But I think that misses two points:

    • the GOP views abortion as murder, the federal government has the right to criminalize murder.
    • the GOP controls the courts so it'll be forever to actually overturn it.
    • JuryNullification [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      the GOP views abortion as murder, the federal government has the right to criminalize murder.

      Murder is a state level crime, not a federal crime.

      • bananon [he/him]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Abortion is now an act of treason :ancap-good:

      • captcha [any]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Murder can be a federal crime if it violates a federal law, like murder during a bank robbery. They just need a reason to make it a law. People crossing state lines to commit (what they argue is) murder would be a sufficient reason.