We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.
We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).
We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.
We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.
So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.
Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?
I think if this happened blue states would just ignore the ban, sort of like marijuana prohibition
No reason it couldn’t happen though
I think that abortion is a more salient issue than marijuana, such that a Republican-controlled federal government wouldn't let blue states just go their own way about it. Abortion is important enough that Republicans would send in federal agents to blue states to enforce a ban.
Maybe. I think that would break the country apart.
Not that it isn’t already breaking apart but that would be a speed run
Actually, now that I think about it more, they wouldn't have to send in federal agents. They could just deny Medicare reimbursement to any hospital in a blue state that continues to provide abortion in spite of the ban.
That would kill millions of elderly people if they tried it, which would also crack the country apart. It would also start an enormous fight between Republicans and pharmaceutical companies who make a ton of money off Medicare. Nationally, Medicare is around a $40 billion per year business and that's a whole lot of money to threaten. That's assuming republicans would actually have enough guts to do it and states that continued providing abortion wouldn't simply fold instantly.
I could see states like Washington, California, and New York going up in months long riots if they had abortion restrictions like in the south, much less a federal ban.
Medicare is a block grant to the states, so they would have to cut funding to the whole state, which as mentioned elsewhere, would kill millions
With the feds at war with the rest of the world we could have a repeat of 1917
The federal government could at any time choose to enforce federal marijuana law and go into legal states and shut shit down, there's just been a precedent to not do that, but they've openly considered breaking it. Jeff Sessions as AG under Trump said he wanted to. When the right thinks abortion should be treated as literal murder, I think they'd be more than willing to enforce their new federal ban on the states. States rights are a complete smokescreen anyway, and always have been; they argue for them when it serves their goals and ignore them when it doesn't.
When the right thinks abortion should be treated as literal murder, I think they’d be more than willing to enforce their new federal ban on the states.
It would be nice if a state would just say "fuck you, no" and set up the national guard (and refuse federalization) to protect people and clinics. That could be the proper beginning of America's collapse, or cause the federal government to get more cautious to avoid said collapse, which means not enforcing the ban in those states.
Too bad the libs in pro-abortion states are too spineless to do anything like that.
The Federalist Society, which is the most visible contingent or ruling class libertarian ghouls who believe in rolling back the majority of power to the states, want to undo the rights abortion, gay marriage, and interracial marriage. Then they (separate but adjacent factions) want to call a constitutional convention and undo the 14th amendment among other things. They are rapidly approaching the required states to call that convention and retain control over which resolutions pass.
More info here: https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTdtxFP2p/
Amendments can just be repealed. They did that with prohibition.
But you don't need a constitutional convention for that. The only reason for a constitutional convention would be to rewrite the whole thing.
And I don't think that would work out in their favor. The world has changed a great deal since 1783 and I think rewriting it would blow up in their faces. The first and second amendments are certainly out the door, and probably the fourth and fifth as well. The tenth would be on super shaky ground.
Democracy in Chains by Nancy MacLean does a whole rundown on Neoliberalism's origins and how Chile's new constitution following the overthrow of Allende was heavily influenced by Chicago Boys and was seen as the test run for what the Billionaires like the Kochs and their cronies want to create in the US. It's not about just repealing amendments, it's about a rewrite.
Part of the strategy has also been strengthening their hold over governorships and state senates in anticipation for such an event, which they have been pursuing for like decades at this point
Absolutely. Dark Money by Jane Mayer is a great read on the Kochtopus and how prevalent right wing propaganda is in everything we consume. Tho she kinda gives a pass to the Dems.
A constitutional convention has never been called by the states and it’s the stated goal of all these groups to simply pass amendments, which is also possible. If they rig which delegates are sent it could very much be possible to do some rough shit
There's no way the US can make interracial marriage illegal, right?
The court decision that legalized nationally is based on the right to privacy, which is an unenumerated right that made its way into legal precedent through Roe v Wade. Once Roe is overturned, Loving v Virginia is able to be challenged. It was explicitly mentioned in the leaked majority opinion on Roe
If loving v Virginia gets overturned (IIRC it has the same legal logic as roe) then interracial marriages immediately stop being recognized in like 17 states or something. I had plans to possibly move to one of those states for woek - those plans have evaporated over the past month. Way too big of a risk
I love how fast we went from
The Dems are going to decriminalize weed at a federal level!
to
The Dems are going to fail to protect abortion rights at any level
What a time to be alive.
At this point my crystal ball is just all blurred up. Could the GOP actually do this? Yeah, maybe. Could the country start to break apart over this? Yeah, also possible. Any of these outcomes wouldn't surprise me but I have no idea about what's likely anymore.
I'm of the opinion that a breakup of the US is good for the future of global communism, so I am pro that happening.
Far be it for me to assume libs have any sort of spine, but idk. I look around at the libs I know personally, and I see them genuinely worried about living in a theocracy. I see a lot of growing anger at the Religious Right and a lot of shitting on red states (I'm in a blue state). Maybe it's not materialist feeling but it is a real feeling. And I think you have a unique situation where California / the west coast could be economically viable on its own (unlike say Vermont). Thanks to the senate and EC, libs in CA already feel like they're getting the short end of the democratic stick (they're not wrong, either). At some point I could see west coast libs thinking they no longer want to be a part of the same country as conservatives and they aren't getting their fair share in the bargain. Again, not predicting that but I also wouldn't be surprised.
Libs as they currently exist don't have the spine. But after some brutality felt from an explicitly theocratic government I feel like the civility will drop considerably
The problem is that an independent California would see southern California annexed by Mexico. All they have to do is hold a UN-style plebiscite and presto. If Californians are OK with that (it would certainly be to Mexico's benefit) then go for it.
What do the people of southern California see as the benefits of joining Mexico?
Similar plebiscites have been held elsewhere, and it doesn't matter who you are, as long as you live there. UN rules. East Timor comes to mind.
If you believe abortion is murder, a system where it's legal in north carolina and illegal in south carolina is untenable.
North Carolinians wouldn't send their children to Clemson. South Carolinians wouldn't send them to Chapel hill
Moving for work or commuting across states is suddenly a very big deal and companies can't pay the premium
I'm not smart enough to know all the ways the disparity would clusterfuck a business.
Also things like business trips. Upcoming sales conference? Yeah but in what state?
I think you're right, and that we're currently living through a reactionary backlash period and we have to assume that everything we've got in the last hundred years is on the chopping block. It's only going to get worse as America continues to lose its hegemonic status and more Americans become chuds because they can't handle not being the top bully in the world anymore.
I think you are right, and I think there is realistically nothing to stop it in the short term. I also question the idea being thrown out about civil war or balkanization. If California doesn't enforce the ban, for example, what actual power does California have to stop federal agents from making them do it? Do people think the all volunteer national guard of california is going to fight the US military over abortion rights? The organized people with guns (military, police, national guard) are 90% in on supporting the far right. They will have no problem playing out their power fantasies to erase the non-desirables and take the final steps to ensure a full theocratic fascist USA.
States can stop state resources from going to enforce bans. But on the other hand it's a lot easier for a few feds to arrest a few doctors than a bunch of weed dealers.
States might be able to legalize like, in-home care and enable some kind of stealth abortion services, maybe.
I don't know about the inevitability thing though. I have heard that just with the news of Roe v Wade being probably overturned, which only has so much awareness, there's already a significant depression in intent to vote Republican. Sorry I don't have sources, im tired.
I think when hell-states start to lock women up for abortions, for fucking ectopic pregnancies, etc. it will become a much more real issue. And there's plenty of footage of fascists saying yes we want to do this in every state.
I don't know if you've been following the news but Biden has been purging those people all over the place. Out, out, out!
Biden has been purging the far right elements from the US military. You didn't hear about it? White supremacists are being identified from their social media postings and discharged. Antivaxxers already got fired. It's some good news for once.
Wow, :biden-leftist: actually doing something. This makes me pretty happy. I guess he's actually scared of a coup then, otherwise he wouldn't go to the trouble.
Technically could a national prohibition also be unconstitutional? The hardcore originalists in all the courts could place an immediate injunction on enforcement because the prohibition isn’t in the constitution. They could try to ban it at the federal level but it could be tied up in courts since it was decided that it’s a “state’s rights” issue.
The courts are all controlled by the GOP now. They'll find a way to say it's constitutional.
Obama had 8 years to fill federal judgeships. Biden is filling empty seats at a record pace. There's always a judge they can find somewhere to declare something unconstitutional.
The only reason it's currently a constitutional right is because of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. The upcoming overturn decision means the Supreme Court has decided that previous interpretation was incorrect, so the decision on abortion goes back to state legislatures.
It's already effectively banned in half the country. Texas has 6 clinics for the entire state of 28 million. Missouri has only 1.
This all checks out. If the GOP has the slightest majority they will slam any legislation they want to through congress. I think the only reason why they wouldn't is because the congressional GOP doesn't care as much about abortion as GOP judges. Its really an outspoken subfaction of the GOP, catholics and evangelicals, that give a shit about abortion. And those factions, particularly the catholics, have been correctly applying pressure on judges to get Roe v Wade overturned. I don't know how much they have invested in congress.
That's all loose speculation. What I can say is the GOP will probably be in the position you mentioned and if they even float the idea of doing it they will.
There's also the question of states rights. If Dems codified Roe-v-Wade into law the GOP would over turn it on the basis of states rights. If the GOP tried a nationwide ban of abortion it theoretically could be overturned on the same basis. But I think that misses two points:
- the GOP views abortion as murder, the federal government has the right to criminalize murder.
- the GOP controls the courts so it'll be forever to actually overturn it.
the GOP views abortion as murder, the federal government has the right to criminalize murder.
Murder is a state level crime, not a federal crime.
Murder can be a federal crime if it violates a federal law, like murder during a bank robbery. They just need a reason to make it a law. People crossing state lines to commit (what they argue is) murder would be a sufficient reason.
The federal abortion ban will never happen either, because the very constitutionalism they’re using to overturn Roe v. Wade says they can’t place a federal ban because it’s unconstitutional.
This blatant hypocrisy will not stop them. They are purely cynical actors using appeals to ideas like the constitution in order to reassert control over women's bodies that they fell they should have but lost.
You are right to be concerned, but it's not paranoia, it's their decades long publicly stated agenda, and it's important that we do something about it.
we do something about it
But what should we do though? Especially if there isn't a viable electoral strategy here?
Should we start a blue state secessionist movement? Start a network of illegalist abortifacient production & distribution?
Don't worry. Dems hold power over all 3 branches of the government. /s
You're not paranoid, this will indeed be their next goal. These motherfuckers are basically just slaver fire-eaters and have the same ultra-reacitonary mindset. It's not enough that their views get accommodated and enforced at every opportunity by their opposition, it's not enough. It will never be enough. They want to impose their will over everyone they can. So the next step will be an abortion-banning version of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850.
the libs would actually fight that with state power, in the states they have power. federal imposition of deeply unpopular laws on ""northern"" states is how the civil war started...
:thonk-cri: oh that's not actually a great sign is it
