We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.

We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).

We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.

We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.

So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.

Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?

  • star_wraith [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    Far be it for me to assume libs have any sort of spine, but idk. I look around at the libs I know personally, and I see them genuinely worried about living in a theocracy. I see a lot of growing anger at the Religious Right and a lot of shitting on red states (I'm in a blue state). Maybe it's not materialist feeling but it is a real feeling. And I think you have a unique situation where California / the west coast could be economically viable on its own (unlike say Vermont). Thanks to the senate and EC, libs in CA already feel like they're getting the short end of the democratic stick (they're not wrong, either). At some point I could see west coast libs thinking they no longer want to be a part of the same country as conservatives and they aren't getting their fair share in the bargain. Again, not predicting that but I also wouldn't be surprised.

    • CommunistBear [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      Libs as they currently exist don't have the spine. But after some brutality felt from an explicitly theocratic government I feel like the civility will drop considerably

    • Dangitbobby [none/use name]
      ·
      3 years ago

      The problem is that an independent California would see southern California annexed by Mexico. All they have to do is hold a UN-style plebiscite and presto. If Californians are OK with that (it would certainly be to Mexico's benefit) then go for it.

      • Sharon [none/use name]
        ·
        3 years ago

        What do the people of southern California see as the benefits of joining Mexico?

        • Dangitbobby [none/use name]
          ·
          3 years ago

          Similar plebiscites have been held elsewhere, and it doesn't matter who you are, as long as you live there. UN rules. East Timor comes to mind.