Honestly it depends a lot on the USA and its role in the region.
In terms of war in the short to medium term, if the USA wants to push for war, it can by explicitly supporting independence and forcing the mainland’s hand.
In the long term, we could see a US retreat from East Asia, in which case we’d see more inter-strait institutional relations, a rolling back of US influence, and a steady de facto reunification, with greater economic, political and military integration, with a nominal one coming later down the line, again potentially piecemeal. Steps towards integration would be rewarded, whereas steps against would be punished. That’s the ‘best case’ scenario.
Alternatively, again in the long term, if Taiwanese society remains hardened against reconciliation, we could see a military build up, such that the balance of power clearly falls to China. This would likely mean securing overland oil supplies from Russia and Iran (via Pakistan) to prevent a blockade at sea of crucial energy supplies. At that point, a military capitulation could be forced via a blockade on Taiwan, and demilitarisation of the island via air strikes.
In any case, based on China’s approach to its former colonies, it prefers working with existing groups and structures, so I’d expect it to remain an autonomous region for the foreseeable future.
No timeline.
Honestly it depends a lot on the USA and its role in the region.
In terms of war in the short to medium term, if the USA wants to push for war, it can by explicitly supporting independence and forcing the mainland’s hand.
In the long term, we could see a US retreat from East Asia, in which case we’d see more inter-strait institutional relations, a rolling back of US influence, and a steady de facto reunification, with greater economic, political and military integration, with a nominal one coming later down the line, again potentially piecemeal. Steps towards integration would be rewarded, whereas steps against would be punished. That’s the ‘best case’ scenario.
Alternatively, again in the long term, if Taiwanese society remains hardened against reconciliation, we could see a military build up, such that the balance of power clearly falls to China. This would likely mean securing overland oil supplies from Russia and Iran (via Pakistan) to prevent a blockade at sea of crucial energy supplies. At that point, a military capitulation could be forced via a blockade on Taiwan, and demilitarisation of the island via air strikes.
In any case, based on China’s approach to its former colonies, it prefers working with existing groups and structures, so I’d expect it to remain an autonomous region for the foreseeable future.