when the US declines to the point that Taiwan's bourgeoisie think they'll get a better deal from China

The PRC seems content with the status quo because they're convinced that Taiwan will eventually come back into the fold of their own volition. What timeline that would happen on pretty much depends on the speed at which imperial decline makes the US incapable of meaningfully stepping in to prevent that and the Taiwanese either have mass uprisings demanding to rejoin the mainland or (far more likely) the Taiwanese bourgeoisie see the writing on the wall and start doing the math on how much money they get to enjoy before China clamps down on them at some point post-reunification, possibly being a nuisance to the larger state in the same way the Hong Kong ones are.

1C2S would be pretty dope, but America isn't going to allow any sort of peaceful reunification. We will provoke a big bloody war, even if the Taiwanese themselves decide they want reunification.

Then once America starts that war, liberals will cry about the evil tankies invading the last Bastion of Democracy in Southeast Asia, and Western "leftists" will be incredibly divided over it and make up some bullshit about how both sides are wrong. ZPoster will return with a brand new mission. I will probably lose all my friends.

I don't think China wants a war, for many reasons including that it would be hard to govern a population that hates them so much. However, the West (their primary support) is already declining and will continue to decline in the future, especially with climate change. Global capitalism is headed for collapse, but China will remain relatively stable. I think Taiwan will eventually come to see the PRC as a life raft that can rescue them from the global economic and ecological breakdown, and throw in the towel out of desperation. Decades from now, of course.

Really Big Hong Kong--i.e. major concessions & autonomy for a period of time after the unification

who can say on the timeline, it depends a lot on the US. the PRC has said for a long time they're for peaceful unification, and are patient enough to wait for Taiwan to jump ship of their own accord.

of course, if the US left Taiwan and they didn't go for unification the PRC might try militarily but :yikes-1::yikes-3: that'd be a horrific campaign unless Taiwan's military capacity drastically reduces

I think war is unlikely but could happen if either Taiwan declares de jure independence or if the US starts stationing certain weapon systems in Taiwan. In those cases, violent reunification will occur and it will be incredibly tragic.

I think otherwise, reunification is likely to occur, as others have said, due to Taiwan leadership seeing the writing on the wall if the US continues to decline and China continues to rise. Especially if we reach a point where the mainland is widely perceived as having higher technology, culture and standard of living than Taiwan.

Right now, peaceful unification is a very long way off given the attitudes of young Taiwan people.

If the US collapses I doubt war will happen unless Taiwan is militarized enough to pose a challenge

At some point, if they become economically and culturally integrated enough, will it cease to be particularly relevant whether they unite under one government? For example of how that could look, see Canada and the USA as an example of neighbors who were rent apart by war, then grew together after a century or two, to the point that they act almost like a unified economic and political bloc on the world stage. Sure, Canada might occasionally defy the US on the world stage, but what real upside would there be to an invasion and annexation?

I don't really see how peaceful reunification is supposed to happen when Taiwanese have been pushed to hate mainland China for like over a century now. Military takeover is most likely probably because of US doing some shenanigans.

communist taiwan province of PRC

I'm sure China is desperate to get Taiwan under its control, but I don't think they will declare war over it. At least, not until the US is deeply, severely weakened. Which, given the state the US is in now compared to a decade ago, might not be too far from now.

No timeline.

Honestly it depends a lot on the USA and its role in the region.

In terms of war in the short to medium term, if the USA wants to push for war, it can by explicitly supporting independence and forcing the mainland’s hand.

In the long term, we could see a US retreat from East Asia, in which case we’d see more inter-strait institutional relations, a rolling back of US influence, and a steady de facto reunification, with greater economic, political and military integration, with a nominal one coming later down the line, again potentially piecemeal. Steps towards integration would be rewarded, whereas steps against would be punished. That’s the ‘best case’ scenario.

Alternatively, again in the long term, if Taiwanese society remains hardened against reconciliation, we could see a military build up, such that the balance of power clearly falls to China. This would likely mean securing overland oil supplies from Russia and Iran (via Pakistan) to prevent a blockade at sea of crucial energy supplies. At that point, a military capitulation could be forced via a blockade on Taiwan, and demilitarisation of the island via air strikes.

In any case, based on China’s approach to its former colonies, it prefers working with existing groups and structures, so I’d expect it to remain an autonomous region for the foreseeable future.

China won't make a move for Taiwan because if they do, US will force S Korea into reunification with the North on US terms, meaning China loses a buffer state and US gets to build military bases right up in China's asshole.