German gas supplies are almost full for the winter, it is doubtful come next Fall there will still be a major energy crisis in Europe - it will be brutal winter for some poorer EU countries though. When energy prices hit ~$100 a barrel for oil a lot of oil fields become viable that aren't usually pumped, and oil just hit $100 a barrel. At $150 tons of small gas and oil fracking sites become viable. Russian gas was cheap to extract, but Europe still has significant reserves of medium/high cost oil and gas fields. Europe will need to build massive amounts of LNG infrastructure over the next few years to compensate for the loss of Nord Stream 1/2. Probably the cost of 4-5x Nord Streams across the bloc.
The fundamental problem with the Western economic model is that its not enough to just have gas in reserve. Someone still needs to profit off its distribution and sale. And when the supplies are limited, that creates ample opportunity for market fuckery.
Losing the Nord Stream imports means the EU is vulnerable to both natural and artificial supply shocks. I'm just waiting with baited breath for some modern day Soros or Enron to step in, corner the market on gas in London or Brussels, and charge everyone a zillion dollars a kwh.
That's awesome for a handful of key influential players, but its going to once again knee-cap the domestic industrial economy. Which means Europe will be even more dependent on foreign imports than when this mess started.
And where does that bring you? Back to Xi. :xigma-male:
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German gas supplies are almost full for the winter, it is doubtful come next Fall there will still be a major energy crisis in Europe - it will be brutal winter for some poorer EU countries though. When energy prices hit ~$100 a barrel for oil a lot of oil fields become viable that aren't usually pumped, and oil just hit $100 a barrel. At $150 tons of small gas and oil fracking sites become viable. Russian gas was cheap to extract, but Europe still has significant reserves of medium/high cost oil and gas fields. Europe will need to build massive amounts of LNG infrastructure over the next few years to compensate for the loss of Nord Stream 1/2. Probably the cost of 4-5x Nord Streams across the bloc.
The fundamental problem with the Western economic model is that its not enough to just have gas in reserve. Someone still needs to profit off its distribution and sale. And when the supplies are limited, that creates ample opportunity for market fuckery.
Losing the Nord Stream imports means the EU is vulnerable to both natural and artificial supply shocks. I'm just waiting with baited breath for some modern day Soros or Enron to step in, corner the market on gas in London or Brussels, and charge everyone a zillion dollars a kwh.
That's awesome for a handful of key influential players, but its going to once again knee-cap the domestic industrial economy. Which means Europe will be even more dependent on foreign imports than when this mess started.
And where does that bring you? Back to Xi. :xigma-male:
If the 500 year droughts in Europe and China continue, neither economy is going to be in good shape.
About 1/3rd of the world's heavy industrial base - metals/chemicals/textiles - is built in areas dependent on hydro power.
About 25% of the world's arable land is in drought atm, and that number may increase to as high as 75% by 2050.
https://www.unccd.int/resources/publications/drought-numbers
Let's hope China and the EU come together at least to fight climate change, there is no choice anymore.
Either we fight climate change now or we do a Malthusian Collapse in another generation and the issue becomes moot.