Xi Jinping is not looking to go to war over Taiwan anytime soon
asia.nikkei.com
Little sign Chinese leader is accelerating invasion preparations

duhhhh....

oh what's that? we were right again, and liberals were easily duped by US propaganda into becoming disgusting war-mongering hawks baying for blood? no shit.

full article archive link

  • OgdenTO [he/him]
    ·
    2 years ago

    Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, which I was sure they weren't going to do, I don't trust my thoughts on things. The US said Russia was going to invade, they had better info than I did I guess, or were lucky. Now with Taiwan, I think there's no reason or chance that China will invade, but the US is saying they will. I have self doubt.

    • Mardoniush [she/her]
      ·
      2 years ago

      I think it's different in that for Ukraine, Putin absolutely wanted to invade and it was in line with factions of Russian policy, but no one thought he'd be dumb enough to do it right then, when he could have annexed the Donbas and carved Ukraine up piece by piece over a decade.

      China has Geopolitical concerns with Taiwan, but there's no benefit to invading. They've got no political base there yet and no benefit to irredentist occupation as long as the status quo is maintained. China has everything to gain from keeping Taiwan open and trading and nominally a part of China while they work on turning the KMT to pro-unification over a few decades. Also Xi doesn't need to show himself as a strongman.

      • Tankiedesantski [he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        China has Geopolitical concerns with Taiwan, but there’s no benefit to invading. They’ve got no political base there yet and no benefit to irredentist occupation as long as the status quo is maintained.

        I have an alternative take on this. While China's military and economic position vis Taiwan is only ever going to improve over time, waiting also gives the Cai regime time to try to erase existing political, social, and cultural links between Taiwan and China. There's already signs of this happening, a recent example being schools in Taiwan teaching "Taiwanese language" as opposed to "Chinese language". Even yanks only call English "American" as a joke.

        There's also an unknown number of KMT loyalists who grew up in China and consider themselves Chinese. Some even say that if Chiang Kai Shek or Sun Zhong Shan were alive today they'd both seek reunification with China. As time wears on, these people die or retire and are replaced with people with no physical or historic links to the mainland.

        Also, right now China seems to have penetrated the RoC military to an almost comical extent, so there's a bloc on the inside who would probably consider laying down arms rather than fighting fellow Chinese. Who knows if that'll still hold true in 20 years?