With it being overwhelmingly likely that Ukraine will receive Germany's Leopard tanks (whether from Germany itself or Poland), German tanks once again roll into battle against Russian forces after nearly a century.

Can the Leopard succeed against the Russian army where it failed in Syria? We'll find out soon enough.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.

January 23rd's update is here on the site and here in the comments.

January 25th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.

January 27th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.

January 28th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.

Links and Stuff

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Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can, thank you.

Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)

Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are fairly brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. The Duran, of which he co-hosts, is where the chuddery really begins to spill out.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.

https://t.me/asbmil ~ Now rebranded as Battlefield Insights, they do infrequent posts on the conflict.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of the really big pro-Russian (except when they're being pessismistic, which is often) telegram channels focussing on the war. Russian language.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Any Western media outlet that is even vaguely liberal (and quite a few conservative ones too).

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

Last week's discussion post.

  • FortifiedAttack [any]
    ·
    2 years ago

    Honestly? Assuming the war will last into 2025 (which I believe is very likely given Russia's attrition tactics), and assuming Trump doesn't kick the bucket, then I think he's guaranteed to win if he campaigns on this issue.

    Trump has several advantages here:

    • Trump's base is already pro-Russia.
    • By the time the elections roll around, more than 1.5 years away from now, American war fatigue will have increased massively. After all, the USA wasn't even able to care strongly about Covid for more than 2 years -- why should this be any different?
    • A failure to bring victory to Ukraine in over 2 years will only reflect negatively on Biden. He's constantly tripping over words and misspeaking as well. If he was seen as the senile old man in 2020, he'll be seen as that even moreso in 2024.
    • Trump can reasonably claim that he has experience in negotiating with world leaders. He managed to calm tensions with North Korea (for a while) and has talked to Putin in person, with photo evidence even.
    • Biden, on the other hand, in terms of foreign policy, only really has a bungled pullout from Afghanistan to put to his name -- apart from the current trajectory of the Ukraine war.
    • By 2024, the US economy will likely already be neck-deep in a recession, which will inevitably be blamed on Biden. Under Trump, the economy was doing much better. Whether he was the reason for this or not, the optics for Trump are much better.
    • Given that Ukraine is making Fascism cool again among libs, hardly anyone will give a fuck about January 6th.
    • I don't think people have realized yet how unelectable a campaign position of being "pro-nuclear war" will be. That's exactly how Trump is going to spin Biden's campaign.
    • The blob might even want Trump to win it. He might be the best chance for the American state, and thus NATO as a whole, to pull out of the war., and reap the rewards of subjugating Germany, and Europe as a whole. Trump will act as the fall guy, the evil orange man who brought shame upon the country (just like in his first term), and America's overall reputation is preserved. In short, libs will be able to claim that America was totally winning until the evil orange saboteur came to power.

    Really the only obstacle will be DeSantis. Assuming Trump hasn't totally lost his touch, he'll easily defeat him though -- after which the Republicans will inevitably line back up behind him, despite all misgivings.

    Now that I wrote all this down -- yeah, I'm convinced we're looking at Trump 2024 here. Make America Tame Again.

    • Stylistillusional [none/use name]
      ·
      2 years ago

      more than 1.5 years away from now, American war fatigue will have increased massively. After all, the USA wasn’t even able to care strongly about Covid for more than 2 years – why should this be any different?

      Doesn't this go against Trumps case though? People not caring will just make it easier for the government to continue support. American troops aren't even (officially) involved in Ukraine like they were/are for Iraq and Afghanistan and it's not like people particularly care about those wars.

      But in combination with a terrible economy it might work.

      The blob might even want Trump to win it. He might be the best chance for the American state, and thus NATO as a whole, to pull out of the war., and reap the rewards of subjugating Germany, and Europe as a whole. Trump will act as the fall guy, the evil orange man who brought shame upon the country (just like in his first term), and America’s overall reputation is preserved. In short, libs will be able to claim that America was totally winning until the evil orange saboteur came to power.

      I feel an underrated aspect of this war in Ukraine is that, while it is true the US is spending its weaponstocks, it also has the opportunity to ramp up defense production and set up longterm contracts with defense companies, without it being outwardly seen as escalatory towards China.

      This war has the potential to provide longterm jobs and make investors a lot of money. The amount of American financial stakeholders in Ukraine is increasing as the war goes on and Ukraine is selling of its assets.

      There might be generals, military men that they are, that understand the prospectives for Ukraine aren't positive. But the blob as a whole is in too deep to just pull back. Again, I'm reminded of Iraq and Afghanistan, for which there were also detractors amongst American generals.

      That being said, Trump winning doesn't seem unlikely. I'll definitely take it of it means an end to this war.

    • ElHexo
      ·
      5 months ago

      deleted by creator