Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
Unless the US banked on the ridiculous scenario that the sanctions could've led to the Russian bourgeois class couping Putin, i'd say the main goal of this conflict was to drive a wedge between the EU, Russia and their economic cooperation and that part has been successful from an Amerikan perspective. It's plausible to me that the US will wind down support for Ukraine and agrees to a redrawing of borders that, while making some territorial losses for Ukraine permanent, will also ensure some US bases in the remainder of the country as outposts in a new Cold War, but it won't allow a return to pre-war levels of cooperation between Germany and Russia, not after they've blown up the pipeline.
This isn't just about a confrontation with Russia, it's also about capping the growth of the EU as a potential rival in a multipolar world. A way to tell the transatlantic vassals who's boss.
I think there's definitely a chunk of the US state department and maybe even the deep-state who in their imperial delirium thought that they could genuinely set off a coup within Russia by undermining support for Putin amongst the elite, seeing him as the belt-buckle holding together a rotting carcass of oligarchs.
Which would tell you that they don't actually understand Russia very well, whether it's the average Russian or the ruling class.
At the same time I don't think the US state is insane. They'd rather trade-off some losses which might be embarassing in the short-run, if it ensures a broader success of keeping a leash on the Europeans. If they have a rump militarized state with a US puppet government and NATO military bases, then they might be happy having a defensive rump and potential launching-off point facing Russia. But would Russia or Belorussia accept that?
Thing is if Russia is not going to accept Ukraine, even a rump version, being part of NATO or remaining militarized, then the ball's in their court whether to accept that or not and instead just keep pushing for full demilitarization, maybe hoping that NATO will give up, which itself depends on how hawkish a desperate situation for Ukraine makes NATO, especially the US and the Poles.