China will beat the USA back to the moon, but 2030 is a little ambitious.

  • iridaniotter [she/her]
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    Long March 10 may be ready in 2027, Artemis 3 will be late 2025. China's not getting there first unless NASA is really unlucky. Looking forward to them both though!!!

      • iridaniotter [she/her]
        ·
        1 year ago

        A delay would not surprise me, but have they actually run into issues yet or is this just pessimism?

        • TerminalEncounter [she/her]
          ·
          1 year ago

          It also wouldn't be the first time NASA has had to delay and then scuttle another moon mission between bduget cuts and the reality of American private provisioning. Constellation was supposed to return to the Moon by 2020.

          I dunno if the US has the same juice it did as a state to organize another crewed moon mission like they did in the 60s and 70s. Maybe with the pressure of the PRC doing it they will, but it's just not the same cold war and not the same rate of profit they had.

          • StarShip [he/him]
            hexagon
            ·
            1 year ago

            I dunno if the US has the same juice it did as a state to organize

            This is it right here. The US just doesn't have the ability to organize the insane resources needed for a lunar mission, let alone Mars, anymore.

          • femicrat [she/her]
            ·
            1 year ago

            It's insane the national unity and concentration of common effort the US had to put a man on the moon in 1969. Kennedy's speech was in 1961. No freaking way the corrupt US empire could pull something like that again. The MIC had not expended to its current state, back then it looked like a tick before feeding. The gov't can allocate all the money it wants, it will simply be inhaled by the tick which will bloat to dozens of times its size to consume all available resources.

        • StarShip [he/him]
          hexagon
          ·
          1 year ago

          The Starship test was a failure that will continue to knock things back.

          • daisy
            ·
            1 year ago

            I'm not sure I'd call that test a failure. SpaceX learned a lot. And a lot of the systems worked exactly as planned.

            • The rocket and the launch mount did not collapse under the weight of a full fuel load. Fully fueled, the rocket weighed almost double that of the Saturn V (5000 tonnes vs 3000 tonnes). That's seriously impressive engineering. You have to know what you're doing to have a 5000 tonne rocket resting safely on a ring itself supported by six pylons just a few meters wide each.

            • The engine failures, likely caused by cement debris at launch bouncing upwards, did not cascade like the N1. The failed engines failed safe, and the rest operated normally and maintained course.

            • They didn't know if they needed some sort of launch water suppression system. Now they know. Lesson learned.

            • The rocket cleared the tower and flew straight on its planned course until stage separation was to happen. The guidance systems and engines' TVC seem to be working exactly as intended.

            • The heat shield tiles only started detaching well after launch. Now they know that launch vibrations are not going to be an issue for the tiles, but airflow is. Lesson learned, time to examine the tile attachment method more closely.

            • The rocket, with 1st and 2nd stages still attached to each other, did multiple cartwheels and stayed intact until ground control commanded a self-destruct. Most rockets shred themselves to pieces the moment they go broadside to the wind. If Starship could handle tumbling through the air end-over-end while attached to the booster, chances are it's going to be able to handle aerobraking just fine.

            I think this was actually a very successful test flight in terms of learning lessons. Didn't make the near-orbit they were hoping, but it got a lot farther than most other prototype rocket launches do. And now they have a gold mine of telemetry to go through.

            (Lest anyone thing this is praise of the melon, it's not. It's praise for the engineers and technicians who actually do the real work at SpaceX.)

    • kristina [she/her]
      ·
      1 year ago

      long march is just such a baller name for a rocket that brings people into space.