I'm not gonna lie to you - I thought Israel would have started shit with Hezbollah by now which would have derailed whatever megathread theme I had planned, so I didn't bother planning one.
If you want a decent couple pieces going over what Hezbollah has done to Israel, then have a look at How 'Israel' Has Lost The North and Hezbollah's Quarterly Report. It's not exactly the most professional analysis, as you'll see if you read it, but it gets the point across and relies on evidence. In essence, Hezbollah has pushed the Israelis back tens of kilometers and decimated their border infrastructure, all while unveiling anti-aircraft missiles that have forced Israel to reconsider bombing runs. They still probably have the ability to turn various towns and cities in Lebanon to rubble, but Hezbollah can do massive damage back to Israel in turn. This has gone on so long with so little meaningful opposition by Israel that border settlements are going a little haywire and tentatively declaring independence from Israel and saying they don't want IDF troops there anymore. I don't take these terribly seriously from a military standpoint but it is indicative of the Zionist settler mindset crumbling over the last 9 months.
We're now at the point where Israel kinda has to go to war against Hezbollah or the entire Zionist ideology of military deterrence and expansion via illegal settlements simply no longer functions, but that war will also lead to massive destruction for military and civilian facilities (ports, power stations, war factories, etc) which is a massive problem for Israel's continued existence. Hamas continues to function inside Gaza despite the surface occupation of significant areas, including the Gaza-Egypt border, and attrition there is leading to big materiel and psychological losses for Israel too. And Yemen has, for all intents and purposes, prevailed against America's failed attempt to thwart their blockade - with some in the army claiming it's the most intense naval battle America has faced since WW2 - and missile strikes are tentatively beginning to hit or at least threaten ships in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nukes are still lurking quietly in the background, of course, but the Resistance is perfectly aware of that and still seems confident to go ahead with operations, so I can't really do anything but shrug and say that I trust them to do what's right.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Lebanon! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
About a year ago or so I was saying that Trump would be the perfect fall guy to pull out of Ukraine with.
Trump will win the election, and early on in 2025 he'll pull all Ukraine support, instead preferring to focus on Israel and China.
Then, once Russia inevitably wins the war, all the liberals will have a perfect scapegoat to point towards, and they will all claim in unison:
"Ukraine would have won if it wasn't for that dang meddling Cheeto in the White House!!!"
They get to be smug about it, and all is well in the world.
Why would Trump end the Ukraine war? It's perfect for keeping the European vassals in line as well as for funnelling money into the MIC. Isn't the republicans as beholding to MIC influence as the democrats? Is there a better grift for republicans than Ukraine?
I think there is some kind of grift that the dems are benefiting from in Ukraine (Hunter working for Burisma, Burisma being investigated for corruption, AG doing it being specifically removed by Biden's threat to cut aid to UKR if they didn't) so the GOP is less invested in this whole project
I think Trump is arguably still considered a Washington outsider who might do things that his base supports even if it goes against other interests.
I kind of agree with you that Ukraine is the MIC’s golden goose that would be basically impossible to replicate anywhere else right now, so it’s pretty unlikely he would do anything to stop it.
deleted by creator
Yall talk as if the yanks be
Do a genocide: I sleep
Basic ass omnipresent corruption: Real shit
Which is probably on point
I think Trump is petty enough and terrified of embarrassing himself like Biden did in Afghanistan. I know it would be pulling out just like Afghanistan, but from his pov it is less a direct debacle of his leadership. He will totally still support NATO and the MIC will get its contracts as they rebuild their stores.
Voters just see "their tax money" being given away to yet another foreign state in exchange "for nothing" while "huge inflation" is starving them, so he just goes with it. It doesn't have to be more than that, as libs can't concede any of those lies. There's always more places for guns.
Oh no, don't get me wrong, he won't end it, he'll just make it harder to supply Ukraine. Whether that matters is another question.
Then, once nature takes its course and the war ends the way it has to, people will blame Trump and claim Ukraine would have won without him.
I don't think liberals care about Ukraine at all anymore.
Only one thing matters now, the US must not be embarrased again, but this is unlikely in the short term. This is not Afghanistan and Russia will not march onto Kiev and have US diplomats evacuating in a helicopter.
As long as NATO is not threated they'll just say something like oh we tried but the primitive dumb Ukrainians couldn't even figure out how to launch offensives, also most of them didn't want to fight anyway so they kind of deserve it.
Everything Trump needs to do is point out the obvious problems with Ukraine
-Extremely corrupt by EU standards before the war
-Well known to be run by the same type of oligarchs as Russia next door.
-Literal Nazis in power.
-Literaly no elections for 2+ years.
-Something something Biden's child.
Of course Trump wont punch right but at this point maybe I'm wrong here but I'm not sure there are many liberals willing to die on the Ukraine is the bastion of freedom and democracy hail Zelensky shit anymore, not in 2025+. That is more like NAFO territory even.
Perhaps the small pacifists/naive libs pushing for Israel ceasefire are also kind of tired of Ukraine war too because Ukraine doesn't have a goal and refuses to negotiate at all. Russia is smart to start putting their demands already btw.
Biden is their guy, I guess
Liberals would care about Ukraine again if they can pin it on Trump. TDS is a strong motivating force for them
I really dont think Ukraine will be able to hold on till 2025. The last funding bill barely got through and mostly it was covering stuff that was already delivered. ukrainians were asking for more stuff less than a month after the delivery. Ukraine is already looking like it is collapsing and a few more months are only going to make it worse.
Trump will start talking about how Ukraine has already lost and that they should sue for peace before election day. He is already saying that the war never should have happened.