- cross-posted to:
- ukraine_war_news@lemmygrad.ml
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine_war_news@lemmygrad.ml
Mitch McConell says the quiet part out loud.
Exact full quote from CNN:
“People think, increasingly it appears, that we shouldn’t be doing this. Well, let me start by saying we haven’t lost a single American in this war,” McConnell said. “Most of the money that we spend related to Ukraine is actually spent in the US, replenishing weapons, more modern weapons. So it’s actually employing people here and improving our own military for what may lie ahead.”
cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/4085063
It has been extremely obvious to everyone who isn't an incredulous lib (ie the ledditor refugees from lemm.ee et al) that the US doesn't actually give a shit about Ukraine and is more than happen to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. Why else would the US constantly ship overpriced wunderwaffen that the Ukrainians can barely use due to lack of training time while at the same time gobbling up Ukrainian state assets? And as we saw with how Afghanistan ended, the US will inevitably pull support, most likely because of Taiwan, and the Ukrainian war effort will collapse overnight just like Afghanistan imploded as soon as the US left the country.
The US has to fight multiple fronts against its peer adversaries as well as not-quite peer adversaries. Just recently, there's a coup in Niger with crowds of Nigeriens waving Russian flags cheering the coup leaders. While Western MSM underreport the average Nigeriens' heartfelt desire to kick out the French and overexaggerate Russia's involvement per usual, an anti-France alliance is forming in the Sahel, and Putin has launched a charm offensive courting African leaders. This is the formation of another front between the West and Russia, and the US will funnel resources away from Ukraine and towards various jihadist and separatist groups like Boko Haram in order to destabilize West Africa.
Ukraine isn't so exceptional that the US will be willing to abandon a front and lose say Taiwan for the sake of Ukraine. And from MSM reporting about the failed counteroffensive, we're close to the "US cutting their loses and leaving their allies out to dry while Hexbears repeat that quote from Kissinger" stage.
The propaganda from the west is absolutely baffling if you try to understand it through anything other than pure vibes. America claims that Putin is going to genocide every single Ukrainian and the response from the US is to send a dozen tanks in a year or so? Why not promise 200-300 tanks and promise to send them as soon they can get tankers trained on them? There's literally 2000 of them just standing there in the desert, isn't a conflict with Russia what they were built for? The west is sending just enough weapons and ammo to prolong the conflict but nowhere near enough for Ukraine to actually have a shot at winning.
That's the crux of the matter right there. And they then force Ukraine to carry out attacks with this lack of equipment and training. Knowing full well that there is minimal chance of victory. Ghoul empire.
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NATO doctrine relies heavily on airpower for any large military conflict. The NATO ground armies might be relatively small, but their combined air forces are qualitatively superior in every metric and at minimum three times larger than any potential opponent. 10k people can hold off 500k when they have a giant arsenal of precision guided weapons and complete control of the air.
That is verifiably not true. Vietnam and Korea made it very clear that you cannot win a war with air power alone. And precision weapons are effectively useless. The US can't sustain minor campaigns of shelling random cities in the Global South without running out of munitions. And short of nuclear weapons it has no capability to level cities with it's air force. The F-35 has, what, like four weapons pylons?
Add to that, the Russia air-defense systems have proven very effective, which changes the game. And the F-35 that is the lynchpin of NATO's air superiority strategy has a great deal of limitations, not the least of which is how expensive and stretched it's logistical requirements are.
NATO's air force is completely untested and reliant on extremely expensive, hard to maintain platforms with very limited tactical flexibility. It's entirely possible the F-35 fleet will defeat itself through attrition due to it's enormous maintenance requirements.
Proven effective against cold-war era planes maybe. There have been a few improvements in the past 50 years. Those same Russian air-defence systems proved themselves effectively useless against the F-117 in the Balkans, and the F-35 is miles above the F-117.
Vietnam and Korea proved that 1950s and 1970s era technology was not up to the task, not that it was not possible. The main issue with both was the lack of accuracy.
"Running out" in this case meaning dipping below normal stockpile levels.
There's been some improvements in the past 20 years too, sometimes even not only on paper.
Anyway, the biggest problem of the ex-Soviet militaries is their incompetence, not their tech. The systems employed are up to the necessary tasks and sometimes more adaptable than NATO systems, it's just that even their normal operation sometimes can't be achieved by people using them.
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Europe is wondering the exact same thing: Why are the yanks pussy-footing around? They're usually much more hawkish. The reason is that the US are shit-scared about Russia thinking the US is trying to invade by proxy or something.
Europe is sending pretty much as much as it can without compromising its own defensive abilities. Have a look at the Baltic states, sending over as large as a percentage of their GDP as the US is sending as a percentage of its military budget. It's the US which has gazillions of Abrams sitting around doing nothing but collecting dust and is not shipping them over, not Europe.
And also unlike the US, Europe is sending long-range missile systems to hit logistics etc. in the rear so that Ukraine doesn't have to gnaw through trench lines.
Homework: Go through all your geopolitical takes and get rid of the term "the west" and instead actually be precise.
Because they're using Ukrainians to grind down the Russian military, and economy, by attrition. The goal isn't to "win", the goal is to destabilize Russia. Ukrainians are just ammunition. The longer the war drags on, the more costly it is for Russia.
Russia already thinks that. That's what turned the civil war in Ukraine in to a proxy war between NATO and Russia.
Okay, so? I could match that if I flipped over my couch and counted the loose change. All of the baltics together add up to one medium-large urban area.
That would be very expensive, and I'm not even sure the US has the logistical capacity for it. Plus seeing Abrams burned out by modern ATGMs would seriously harm the US's reputation for military invincibility. And, again, they're primarily concerned that Russia loses. Ukraine winning would be a nice bonus, but it's not the chief goal.
You have a very active imagination.
Look, it's that Seppo exceptionalism again.
The US only has those Abrams because it's cheaper to produce them than shut down the production line for a couple of years and then start it up again. Realistically speaking much of what the US sends should be valued at negative monetary value as Ukraine taking it means the US doesn't have to pay to dispose of it.
Look up what was happening in Ukraine from 2014-2022. I know the media always refers to the people living there as Russian-backed separatists but they are in fact Ukrainians.
So why hasn't the US sent 200-300 tanks? Why did the US demand that Ukraine launch a counteroffensive with insufficient tanks and air support? Why is the US trickling in just enough equipment to prolong the conflict as much as possible without giving Ukraine everything it could possibly need to win. Why is US propaganda so different from the actions the US is actually taking?
Force-recruited to fight on frontlines with Mosin Nagants or, alternatively, Wagner green men.
Because they're chicken and don't understand Russia. Russia sees such hesitance as weakness and reason to continue on, as evidence that the US isn't really in it for the long run. And, I mean, they're not wrong in that regard proper commitment looks quite differently.
When did the US demand such a thing? Ukraine has plenty of reason and grit and will to decide that on their own. Oh and there's a suitable number of tanks for what Ukraine is doing (they're not stupid and don't overcommit), the issue indeed is lack of air superiority, all that fancy NATO hardware is supposed to be used with NATO doctrine which involves throwing air superiority at the enemy until the ground frontline is the enemy's whole territory. But Ukraine is making the best out of the situation and picking off positions NATO would pick off from the air with various artillery systems, both medium and long range. And they're very good at it, which shouldn't really surprise anyone as that's good ole soviet doctrine and Ukraine always was the core force in the red army anyways.
Because they're a bunch of chickens who don't understand Russia. Alternatively, with some conspiratorial thinking, they want to prolong the war -- I frankly doubt it, never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. But that's irrelevant, in any case: Because that should be reason for you to demand that more weapons be shipped, not less.
I wouldn't know I don't follow US media way too much of a partisan clown show anyway.
The US is pussyfooting because this was a fight they picked, and did not expect it to be this hard.
All the surrounding nonsense is their propaganda, and the leaders don’t actually believe any of it.
They don’t feel committed because they chose this, and won’t overcommit to a losing battle. They just need to steward the fight into a slow loss that doesn’t eat up many more resources.
Their actions are inexplicable otherwise - if they were truly afraid of Russia, they’d never have joined in the first place.
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The US obviously doesn't care but the aid is helping Ukraine keep it's independence and even if US pulled out Europe would continue it's support. Like Poland is amping up ammo production to the point where it alone can supply Ukraine with ammo. Ex-soviet countries fucking hate Russia for a good reason. Also even if Ukraine got no support it's not like they would stop fighting, they would just be slaughtered and occupied by the Russians which is the worst outcome for them considering what's going on in the occupied regions. Like for once the US military is not doing something completely morally reprehensible and is actually opposing imperialism for once, that's a good thing.
No, they really don't have a good reason
I don't know where you're from, but I think you also "hate hate Russia with a passion" and it's clouding your judgement, because you live in some alternate reality if you believe all that.
There's an old clip of Nuland where she says the US spent 5 billion dollars promoting democracy in Ukraine. There's also the famous "Fuck the EU" clip of her deciding who's going to be PM before the coup even happened. Then there's her and lots of other western politicians on stage at the Maidan. McCain famously shook hands with a Nazi leader on there.
Can you imagine what you would say if all these things were done by Russia instead of the US?
I have seen both clips. The 5 billion was over like 30 years as foreign aid which is like pretty common for the US, there are like 50 other countries that also receive aid like this. And the other one I know is when Nuland 'selected' their next leader who was the leader of the opposition who would have been in power anyways.
All those politicians showed up after it happeded as I said.
You can also verify the laws Yanukovych was trying to pass. They pretty obviously are meant to turn him into the dictator of Ukraine. I would protest that.
Well that's fine then I guess. The US "aids" pro-US political groups with billions of dollars everywhere! How nice.
There are pictures of them on the Maidan. Before the coup. News articles in the western press. What is this kindergarten? Do you have no object permanence?
Yes but what if this time the US didn't want something out of it? If the US did want something out of it there would be evidence of it, surely? Like a website for privatising Ukrainian assets? Or IMF reports explaining how half the loans were given to pay off the previous ones until Ukraine dismantled it's manufacturing industries, military capabilities, and devalued it's currency? Or, I don't know, an article like the one in the OP that quotes someone explaining the US is only involved to quell dissent about it's failing economy among it's domestic workers.
What I was saying is that no, 5 billion wasn't given to some shadowy group in Ukraine to do a coup, it was the standard foreign aid the US throws around to advance it's interests.
Also yes, politicians go around shaking hands all over the place. I though you meant they went to Ukraine to specifically support Euromaidan before it happened but any politician supporting that visited after.
Ultimately the laws that triggered the protests were very protestable. If Kaia Kallas tried to pass those here I would be taking up a pitchfork and torch right now. There is no evidence to suggest it was some group paid by the US but plenty to suggest people protested because their leader was screwing them over.
Obviously protestors have a reason for protesting and the CIA isn't handing out cash to random schmoes. They're just giving money to various groups that organize and support the protest, or they pay for positive media coverage. Groups they've been cultivating for decades. Groups that are coordinated by the US state department and will do basically what the US embassy tells them to do.
Again, imagine you had protests in Estonia, and the groups involved were long-time funded by Russia, and Russian officials made appearances at these protests to hand out cookies and shake hands, and Russian-funded media was riling up the protestors, and some of the people involved are straight up far-right fascists that hate your ethnic group. And then you hear a leaked phone call of Lavrov discussing who's going to be the new PM of Estonia, and a couple of weeks later, shooting starts (no one knows how exactly and nobody is too interested in finding out) and your old PM gets ousted without proper procedure, and the guy the Russians said they liked is in, and the far-right fascists also gets posts, and they hate you. WHAT WOULD YOU THINK?
It's quite telling that the US has triggered so many coups around the world that you can call it 'the standard foreign aid'. How the hell do you think coups come about?
Is promoting democracy foreign aid?
I've lived in cities with a much larger population than all of the Baltics. What, exactly, are three medium sized suburbs going to do against Russia?
Have an actual military instead of a meat grinder disguised as one.
Wait did you just said Baltics have actual military? Compared to... Russia? All of them combined have less that 50000 active military personnel with pretty weak armament and basically nonexisting navy and airforce (all three combined have literally zero combat airplanes).
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use your words
Why waste time say lot word when emoji do trick?
Effort < 0
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Sorry to break it down to you but if your safety DEPENDS from foreign weapon aids, you're anything but independent.
More independant than an annexed country.
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That was kind of a joke as there are like 5 countries who produce all their weapons locally.
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He said Ukraine's safety depends on foreign weapon aids
Other nations buy weapons. Ukraine only exists as long as it can continue to successfully beg for weapons.
You sure do like your goalposts...
I'm pretty sure the US at least is providing weapons in the form of a loan so they are buying their weapons too.
Also begging for weapons seems a bit more dignified than having your army steal washing machines and build the electronics of your equipment out of those.
Wait you still believe that was a real thing? It was projection. Missile and drones don't need super powerful chips and China makes anything they do need.
You must not be following the war very closely. Russia is firing dozens of missiles and hundreds of suicide drones every week and the volume keeps rising.
How do Liberals square off the fact that Russia is outproducing America and EU for war equipment with this insane washing machine myth? How many washing machines are in Russia and Ukraine anyway? Must be a lot if they're kicking NATO's ass while still relying on them for parts
Remind me, which Russian unit goes by "Збройні сили України"?
You're close to getting it, keep going.
No it cant all of nato cant support ukraine with ammo. That is nonsense.
Yes, but mainly that's because NATOs ammo production was very limited. The factories are all designed to be scaled up massively in times of need, but pre-2022, NATO was barely producing enough to maintain stockpiles.
Is it a time of need now?
Is that why the US is sending ATACMS?
Where are the fucking ATACMS?
...I know, it's of no use. Germany gave up on bullying you into shipping them so it's safe to say that that ship has sailed. The US has been pussy-footing about since the beginning of the conflict.
There's no need to kick out the French. They readily leave when uninvited.
The US is fickle, news at 11. But that won't stop the rest of Europe backing Ukraine, and then the US is probably going to chime in again as, like with Libya, it's unthinkable for the Seppos for Europe to do anything on our own so that you can keep up the illusion that we're doing what you want.
Classical American exceptionalism from the Tankie side, again.
Europe is firmly vassilszed by the U.S.
That has been the case since the end of WW2. You are free to pretend operation Gladio never happened, but it did.
Gladio? Yeah no shit the US is partly to blame for issues we have with fascists. How does that make us a vassal?
Tell you one thing if the US really is our overlord they really, really suck at controlling us, not losing trade wars against us, tons of stuff.
We blew up the Nordstream pipeline and your own leaders can’t even admit they know that in public.
If that’s not subservient behavior, I’m not sure what is.
Unlikely. Too much risk no advantage. Frankly speaking it's more likely Greta Thunberg herself dove down there and gnawed through it.
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I didn't say Russia did it. I mean it probably did but Germany isn't off the table. Unlike the US Germany actually has the stealth subs to pull it off undetected, but all in all Russia is still the more likely option I'd say. Of course, the presence of ships in that area etc. is only circumstantial evidence.
And in your analysis you're making a crucial mistake, a mistake I myself made directly before the invasion when Russian soldiers were getting itchy underwear on Ukraine's border because I thought if they're going to attack, they'd already have done it: You assume Russia is a rational actor. Or, maybe better put, that it considers the same things as rational as you do.
Blowing up NS2 from Russia's side could have the motive of a) knowing or suspecting that you don't need it any more -- though it also wouldn't be terribly hard to repair which people are constantly overlooking and b) to provide an excuse to stop deliveries. Russia was playing around back at that time with NS1 maintenance and turbines being needed which were stuck in the sanctions regime etc, allthewhile Germany was filling its gas storage and nationalising Russian gas assets on German soil. They might've thought that they need to disable NS2 so Germany wouldn't say "well if NS1 doesn't work why don't we use NS2".
As to the US threats: What was probably meant was sanctions. It's true that the US has levers it can pull to force such an issue. Those would come at a cost to the US itself but they're there and can be pulled if the cost is deemed acceptable.
And btw one thing is for sure: Germany will never again buy any (noticable) amount of Russian gas. Even if they retreat to their own borders tomorrow that ship has sailed, Germany is in full swing to replace all that fossil infrastructure with ammonia and hydrogen. NS2 is dead no matter whether it's operational or not.
Oh another thing is for sure: Ukraine is way more important to Russia, or maybe better put Putin, than some gas pipeline. Pretty much the moment Germany changed laws to legalise sending weapons into crisis territories, i.e. Ukraine, Russia knew where Germany stood, and will continue to stand. We don't tend to flop easily and they know it. As such it also might simply have been Putin being stroppy, expecting Germany really to go for that Duginesque1 division of Europe between great powers things, with Germany taking a forceful lead in Europe. He did later on comment that "siding with Ukraine was Germany's mistake of the millennium" or something to that effect. So much for Putin's rationality, he's living in a completely different world than us, thinking state relations and decisions work on fundamentally different principles than they actually do.
1 not really, Dugin never came up with that stuff he's not a theorist he just rehashes nationalist bullshit those theories actually date back to the German Empire trolling the Russians to bait them it's a long story.
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What? There was no risk and there was a ridiculous amount of money to be made. You have people in the intelligence community talking since the early 2000s how important it is to 'empower poland, to drive a wedge between germany and russia'. The Americans had been threatening to 'do something about' the pipeline for years. And when they did it, the pan European media blackout made sure there was no risk involved. You yourself is a proof of that.
Meanwhile Europe will deindustrialize while paying hand over fist for American gas. They must also continue to dismantle their welfare state and spend that money in American weapons. But european governments don't care, they are all personally invested in american investment funds shares anyway. Why else would the german foreign minister claim that the opinion of german voters are not relevant to her?
Vassals at least had a two way relationship with the King. This is borderline colonial.
What. We're not buying US gas, not in any noticeable amount, that is. First of all usage was cut drastically (the likes of BASF could switch to other energy sources), most gas we still consume comes from Norway, LNG overall is only a tiny portion and of that most is Qatar.
If the US really did it then Germany is holding tight right now for Ukraine's sake and there's going to be hell to pay after the war.
What. The only reason any amount of US hardware is on our shopping list is because Eurofighter GmbH doesn't want to give the US access to data they'd need to certify US nukes for the Typhoon because industrial espionage. F-35s are already certified, available off the shelf, and our Tornado fleet really needs replacement but really, it's just for the nukes: The EWAR Tornados are getting replaced not by F-35s, but more, freshly designed, Eurofighters. Down the line there's going to be FCAS and likely French instead of US nukes. Now it's not that I'm saying that France would be less prone to industrial espionage than the US, in fact they're notorious for it, but they already have all that data through Airbus anyway.
Poland is going on a shopping spree for quite a lot of American hardware, but that's another topic, also, focussed very much on airframes. Tanks and artillery are onshored South Korean systems (which are onshored German systems). France will never buy American because strategic autonomy, in fact they were right-out insulted when hearing Germany is going to buy F35s, but seem to have cooled down seeing that it's a stop-gap solution.
As a third party can see, the risk to the Americans really was zero. Everything to gain, nothing to possibly lose. What, are the Germans gonna rebel somehow? They'll fall over themselves to pretend the chains aren't even there.
Manichean views don't explain enough, although they do create engagement, which may be the primary goal.
A less angry explanation is that it is all of that at the same time. They want to help Ukraine's democracy, weaken a historical authoritarian enemy and feed their military–industrial complex. It's a balance of all of that in the interest of the people that elected them, like in any democracy. If something gets out of balance, yes they will probably retract their support before it hurts their country in some way, like any other country would. It's just Realpolitik.
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