Doing this kind of modelling on a presidential election is just braindead. He starts with all these priors that don't mean anything anymore, things like the incumbency advantage, and then bakes in dumb lib analysis of the electorate and the result is pretty much the same thing that every other pundet tells you.
https://hexbear.net/post/32883/comment/255304
Doing this kind of modelling on a presidential election is just braindead. He starts with all these priors that don't mean anything anymore, things like the incumbency advantage, and then bakes in dumb lib analysis of the electorate and the result is pretty much the same thing that every other pundet tells you. https://hexbear.net/post/32883/comment/255304
oh yeah agreed 100%, my point is just that it's not non-falsifiable :)