Feels pretty hopeless. He is losing in every swing state at the moment, and he seems to be running a campaign as bad as Hillary's. I really do not see how he can bounce back. Kamala is by now means a good candidate, and will be a terrible president. A "normie" repub would be winning right now, no? It really just seemed like a great opportunity for him to win and he's just fumbling the bag hard.

Am I wrong? Is there a path to victory for our boy?

I mean that would be funny, but the polls say otherwise. Trump has been running an absolutely god awful campaign.

I am not sure that mods will even see this, but it was a bit and I don't think it should have been taken down. I feel like if I was even more on the nose it would have been taken down for that reason... Am I missing something here?

  • mar_k [he/him]
    ·
    edit-2
    3 months ago

    he's definitely not losing in every swing state, most of the polls are super close to margin of error and trump's gotten several leads. 538 simulates their odds of winning the electoral college:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

    right now they give trump a 44-in-100 chance of winning. that's basically a coin toss, and it looks like his odds improved a bit in the past week

    for comparison, before 2020 election day they gave biden a 89-in-100 chance of winning and in 2016 gave trump a 30-in-100 chance