Is it pretty much over for Trump?
Removed by modFeels pretty hopeless. He is losing in every swing state at the moment, and he seems to be running a campaign as bad as Hillary's. I really do not see how he can bounce back. Kamala is by now means a good candidate, and will be a terrible president. A "normie" repub would be winning right now, no? It really just seemed like a great opportunity for him to win and he's just fumbling the bag hard.
Am I wrong? Is there a path to victory for our boy?
I mean that would be funny, but the polls say otherwise. Trump has been running an absolutely god awful campaign.
I am not sure that mods will even see this, but it was a bit and I don't think it should have been taken down. I feel like if I was even more on the nose it would have been taken down for that reason... Am I missing something here?
The difference between winning and losing for Biden was like 100,000 votes in one or two states or something ridiculous.
Hasan has said something like where Democrats need to win the popular vote by like 5% to have a slim victory in the electoral college.
It's going to be close.
Because it's always close, because our system is built that way. It's bullshit but here we are.
The difference between winning and losing for Biden was like 100,000 votes in one or two states or something ridiculous.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/sep/03/electoral-votes-swing-state-margins-explained
It's bone chilling how the population of a small city can tell 330 million people to kick rocks and somehow this is democracy manifest
He's as dry as he's ever been right now, Vance can't stop being basically the ultimate Redditor misanthrope creep at every opportunity, and I still think it's a coin toss chance that he wins anyway because the chuds are very, very loyal to the brand no matter what.
Very true. I think that fact that Trump has been president before (incumbency is now i think a negative) and that abortion is going to be probably the most animating issue driving people to vote ontop of his campaign performing really badly right now, gives the edge to Harris.
But i also don't count him out, and it will be close either way.
Regardless of how the campaign actually goes, it's going to be a coin flip. There are almost no "swing voters" left. There's virtually nothing that can make anybody switch support, and Trump is a known quantity. It's basically entirely in Kamala's court: if she can get enough folks to come out and vote for her amongst the people who don't vote, she wins. If she can't, she loses. Regardless of what Trump does his voter base is already locked in.
I agree nobody's really flipping from D to R or vice versa, but do you really think trump doesn't also have to gin up some excitement to bring out his base? his recent rizzlessness seems like it could get some of the hogs who like him to go back to not voting
But yeah. the majority of movement is on the dem side this year. Trump isn't doing himself any favors but he could still win if they fumble the PR cycle hard enough
His base isn't watching his current rizzlessness, they're consuming old Trump content or the idealized picture in their minds of Trump. Material reality is secondary to spectacle. It's the same with Kamala; she's a blank slate, an entity of pure projection.
But I remember back in 2016; the hogs were oinking excitedly, now they seem sad and and uninterested.
Yeah, this is pretty much it. There's nothing that can really damage his reputation. Nobody has anything to throw at him or say about him that will change their minds. I think it really just depends on dems turnout on voting day
This is why we need to put maximum pressure on her in regards to Gaza. If there’s anytime that democrats can actually be pushed left it’s now.
The Democrats will never be pushed to the left on Gaza. The genocide will continue unabated. The quicker folks abandon this fantasy of "pushing them left" the more time we have to construct something different, or at least contribute to the end of this godforsaken polity.
Putting pressure on dems for being reactionaries and demonstrating to the public how committed they are to being reactionary is good, actually
Agreed, but that's a very different thing than trying to "push them left" that will inevitable involve very different tactics and pressures.
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that's never going to happen, they're an explicitly genocidal party.
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you vastly overestimate how much Democrats actually want to win and govern. They do not give a shit. If anything they make far more donor money when they're the underdogs than when they're winning.
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i don't know where you've been for the past 50 years, but Democrats don't learn lessons. If they lose because a bunch of people withhold their votes over Gaza, then the Dems will simply blame the left like always. They did it in 2000, they did it in 2016, they were preemptively doing it in 2020 before they won.
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it's no use predicting anything until the October Surprise. that's when the media cycle dials itself in to the horserace framing and some event can be characterized as being decisive, being repeated over and over in the news cycle until you can almost hear the low hum of the easily swayed minds vibrating at the same frequency, inducing them to stay home or get a sticker.... that 5% of the population that sway elections in key geographic areas.
that is when it will be known which administration has been selected by capital to operate the throttle on this train racing to hell.
Capital supports both parties, so it always comes up on top. Both parties are trying to do an October surprise, the winner will be the one with a surprise that makes for better TV. No one's masterminding this shit, it's just a game show
Nah, he's cooked. Him losing after getting his ear piercing would be so fucking funny. It has to happen.
"I got assassination attempted and all I got was this lousy earring"
someone put it through AI and make it real
Betting markets are wrong all the time. removed gamblers pumped Shapiros odds to like 70-80 cents on the dollar not too long ago
I mean I would but those sites confuse the heck out of me. Predictit takes 20% of the money you make, so that's just ridiculous. And the other site its not like just placing a wager it's tricky haha maybe I'm just dumb
He's blowing it. I think this election, and probably every national election from here on out, will be won and lost on turnout. When the base is excited, they turn out.
He's definitely lost it, but even if you brought back 2016 Trump, it's all background noise now. In 2016 he said stuff that shocked most people, including republicans, today that stuff is not even as extreme as what the average republican congressperson tweets. He's been doing the same speeches for 8 years with minor changes.
He hasn't gotten less extreme, most Republicans have just taken up his rhetoric after seeing how well it worked.
Yeah this is what it really is. The average American conservative has become so mentally deep fried that Trump comes across as quaint in comparison. He no longer hits the same for them. Or at least, they've gone so ass deep into trans panic and anti-wokeness that Trump's 2016 rhetoric just isn't doing it. He doesn't cater to the same cultural grievance politics that DeSantis and Vance try to lean into. I'm remembering that one time Charlie Kirk was interviewing Trump. He was trying to get Trump to say there's a widespread conspiracy on universities to censor conservative speakers, but Trump wasn't having it. He said stuff like "No they're doing great. Everyone loves me. The speakers get a lot of listeners." Just didn't play into it at all.
Don't underestimate the ability of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They'll find some way to fuck it up.
Not really on topic but it's wild to me that libs have essentially memory holed that Joe Biden is still the president and is completely senile and doesn't do anything and everything just keeps moving along like it's normal. Kamala is basically running like she's already won and an incumbent seeking a second term and none of the people who were saying pointing out Joe's "stutter" is ableist and ageist have anything to say about how there functionally isn't a president now but there's been no appreciable change in policy.
As a tumultuous summer that hastened the end of President Biden’s political career winds to a close, he has spent the past two weeks secluded in Southern California and at a home in Rehoboth Beach, Del., that has become his refuge from the pressures of the presidency.
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He briefly addressed reporters about the hostages after attending Mass on Saturday evening, but otherwise tried to stay out of the public eye, emerging only on Wednesday and Saturday for afternoons on the beach.
Some beachgoers, thrilled to find themselves on the same stretch of sand as the president, offered waves and greetings, but Mr. Biden, wearing red patterned swim shorts, a black cap and his signature aviators, turned his blue lounge chair around to avoid the onlookers — and at least one television camera.
Totally still the president
A whole bunch of his supporters have died since 2016. They were already old and unhealthy and then COVID ran rampant. Maybe that is enough to weaken his hold. Wouldn't that be funny
he's running scared and in a similar cadence to hilldawg 2016. so he's on the down. the problem for dems is that they're trying their best to do the same thing. they're acting like they've already won and they can go ahead and turn back to neoliberalism as normal, as if brat summer will become brat autumn and the general enthusiasm over biden being out will never dissipate.
turn back to neoliberalism
i think the neoliberalism consensus is dead. usa is lurching towards a Keynesian imperialism.
They will try, but the finance bourgeoisie will eat all of their attempts to reshore/“friendshore” (I fucking hate that word). They will spend billions to do what less than 100k would do in China
could be, could be that particular interests are intractable. but, fwiw, a trade publication i receive is forecasting that harris will continue biden's regulatory regime (whether or not such a regime succeeds may be a different matter).
Every scandal, or law breaking he does makes it seem like it's the end and yet he keeps getting away with it.
Won't count him out until he's either dead or gives up running. Cause if he loses again he's gonna definitely run again
The walls have been closing in on the Trump administration for 8 years now.
Cause if he loses again he's gonna definitely run again
He'd die mid-campaign if he tried this, and I think he knows it. His second assassin would be a blood clot, and it wouldn't miss.
He wouldn't but I think he'd take the chance to have the ability to delay more charges.
it's a political witch hunt if you go after a candidate! - either him or SC
Idk about Trump's chances on this one, but I bet a Kamala victory is going to make things so fucked up after that Trump will probably have a very big advantage in the next elections, assuming there will be more elections and he won't just go full fascist coup mode
I highly doubt Trump will stick around to try to run in 2028. By then Hhs brain will be far more goo than Biden's is now.
The next Republican candidate would probably have an advantage, since the Trump supporters have a cuckoo reputation
