The BBC's live feed said an IOF brigade was leaving Gaza for the Lebanese border. Their reporting suggested that the Israelis were afraid of the plan being uncovered and detonated the bombs early, with them originally being slated to go off during an invasion. I like that potentially the Israelis committed two horrific terrorist attacks against civilians in a country they aren't at war with, even wounding an Iranian ambassador, for no advantage whatsoever. They're still facing the imminent escalation of the now-four front war they can't win and have nothing to show for it beyond more international condemnation.
Hey at least war college nerds get to jerk off to the idea of an apartheid state fighting off "barbarians on all sides". Bloodthirsty Flooper gooner motherfuckers
It’s not a Pearl Harbor level advantage, but they did deal a lot of damage. The best preemptive strike completely removes and the second best disrupts comms, they’ve done that twice. As a non-doomer preface: Pearl Harbor was much larger advantage, but the similarities also include that both attacks didn’t do shit to address the underlying advantage. Pearl Harbor attacked the ships, not the shipyards. Ships can be replaced. Callous as it sounds, there is no shortage of those moral and brave enough to replace those lost in terms of war effort and war effort alone. In no way should this be read as ignoring the irreplaceable nature of those lost within the context of community, family, society, ect. That being said a soldier is a tool and can be replaced. Unless a uniquely talented individual was lost, this a setback not a permanent wound.
we don’t, and are unlikely to (if ever) get a proper breakdown of just effective it was. Israel lies as in the Israeli nature. Hezbollah gains nothing form a press release saying “yeah, our dudes got blown up in x amount”. They also gain nothing from not downplaying it given that lies in the opposite direction are given.
There is also the angle that damaging the organizational structure damages the ability to engage in offensives. Defensive intent realized by offensive terrorism. It fits the zionazi mindset.
It disrupts communications, but that's only an advantage if Israel immediately follows up with a full assault and there's nothing else Hezbollah could adopt. If Hezbollah goes to a warehouse and buys a random crate of a different brand of pager they're suddenly safe again.
If Israel doesn't immediately invade during the couple days of chaos this buys them, all they've done is shit the bed. All of their enemies now know they can do this and they probably instantly changed up whatever tech they're using. With that goes anything else Israel has done in terms of surveilling or sabotaging that tech. A week from now their enemies will have more robust comms and fresh replacements to use them. The escalation to wholesale terrorism against random civilians risks being matched and Israeli losses are disproportionately felt/destabilising. The potential for more severe blowback seems much higher than whatever gain they could hope for outside of an immediate battlefield advantage.
To clarify: they had two waves. My line of logic is that if a third wave exists the attack comes then. The absence of an attack after the first and second either means a) this is desperation : they had a means to draw blood and took it because in absence of a means to kill causing injury is the next best b) it’s a multi stage softening
My most optimistic take, c) is that they have no follow through. Softening as a delay action. They can’t/ don’t see a path to victory as of now and see hurting the organizational structure as a means of buying time to fix that.
Edit: forgot to tie-in that every comm device is suspect rn. The one-two of making multiple comms potentially lethal harms every device. If your pager lows up, if your walkie blows up, you might not keep the other devices attached to your person. A third attack on the second backup shortly followed by invasion would maximize lack of comms. Nothing would be trusted in that temporary period.
Anti-doomer counterattack on the line of thought: they are super dedicated and I bet a ton of the resistance has a line along “my comms might kill me, their missiles too. Without the comms I am unable to coordinate the fight, so fuck it I keep the radio”.
I'm curious to see if there's a third attack. It could be a prolonged softening but I think they'd have to hit something different. By now surely every electronic device Hezbollah has is either being stored away from people, dismantled and inspected, or thrown away for fresh ones. If Israel blows up laptops or cars next it's probably going to either cause less damage or more random collateral damage. If Hezbollah finds a single odd thing in any of their devices, that attack and any subsequent ones go out the window. The next couple days are going to be such a critical period.
Agreed, to try and definitely speculate further is an act of augury. We can only hope the entrails are optimistic.
All of those either weaken hospitals or overload them. If the hospitals are overloaded, you can't heal soldiers as fast and they can't get back to the front. Overloading medical facilities is a very common strategy. For example, US military doctrine prefers shoot-to-maim over shoot-to-kill because it takes more resources to heal a person than it does to bury them.
The "scared of being discovered" was just providing cover for the civilian deaths which they wouldn't "have time" to "avoid".
Also FWIW Gallant seems to have explicitly announced the invasion. They just haven't got the forces ready to move over the border yet.
some guy in my hobby game discord said "Well if you are not clued into recent events a load of Hezbollah mfers just got cooked by pagers rigged with explosives simultaneously"
damn the brainwashing is working. US is legit fascist now
The walkie-talkie explosions were a separate event, about 24 hours after the pager explosions.
When white people (even white people that white people who love obsessing about being white loathe) do state sponsored monte Carlo terrorism against the brown people they call terrorists:
(´ ∀ ` *)
When the brown people do terrorism to the white people who do terrorism to them:
(︶︹︺)
It must be really hard keeping yourself knotted enough to support Israeli state crimes while hating the people who do smaller scale stuff back.
About 45% of the Jewish population in Israel is Mizrahi Jews. It's not simply black and white.
Mizrahi Jews constitute one of the largest Jewish ethnic divisions among Israeli Jews. Mizrahi Jews are descended from Jews in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia and parts of the Caucasus, who had lived for many generations under Muslim rule during the Middle Ages.
From Pablo Escobar's telegram
THE MOSSAD-MI6 CONNECTION
This is deliciously intriguing; it comes from a very well-informed Russian intel source.
So the story goes that the head of MI6 Richard Moore ordered his removed - in Hungary - to put explosives in the pagers in case Hezbollah got "out of control”.
But" among the English T.E. Lawrences", there were not only friends of Israel, but also enemies of Moore. They handed over the alarm code to the Mossad. So, "without hesitation, they neutralized all of Moore's agents with one blow."
This might indeed be directly linked to the Brit nest of spiders. There won’t be a smoking gun, of course. What is already happening is the whole Brit press hysterically stating this was just a tricky Mossad op - and MI6 was not involved at all.
"This is how the legend of the omnipotence of the Mossad” continues.
