I see America losing critical port cities to hurricanes and having no ability to re-build them due to failures of governance and capital flight
Worst case scenario is that Capital does SOMETHING. Even in an anarcho-Capitalist dystopia, Exxon Mobil is not just going to give up on refining, Dow Chemical is not going to stop making plastics, every corporation on Earth is not going to just give up on the idea of America having ports.
I see massive agricultural losses due to extreme weather events, drought, and fire disrupting food security as the Midwest changes radically.
Unlikely. The Midwest agriculture belt is not going to be significantly effected under any scenario with warming <=3C. Rainfall is not going to decrease significantly, the Great Lakes are just fine, and frankly, warmer temps might actually expand the growing area for a lot of staple crops in the American Midwest. China has committed to net zero by 2060, so we're pretty much guaranteed to have less than 3C of warming. All of the 2-3C warming scenarios are neutral-to-great for the American Midwest and bad for the Indian subcontinent.
I see much of the west and California becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to overexploitation of water resources, fire, and deadly heat events.
No one lives there anyway. We'll still be able to grow avocados/oranges/winter greens, so it's a moot point in the grand scheme of things (it's BAD, but not life-critical).
Every time there’s an extreme climate event there will be more and more internal refugees, and there will never be action to reverse that trend as the government becomes more and more fractured, the states become more balkanized, the weather becomes more extreme, and infrastructure breaks down further and further.
In the global South, absolutely. Things will get brutal. In the USA, no, not really. It won't be any worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. It probably won't even be that bad.
You have a much rosier view of the likely trajectory of climate change than I do. My assumption based on what we know, and the incredible rate at which we're being confronted with what we don't know, is unmitigated and unstoppable warming until the artic and the sea-floor both run out of greenhouse gasses somewhere around +8c.
Worst case scenario is that Capital does SOMETHING. Even in an anarcho-Capitalist dystopia, Exxon Mobil is not just going to give up on refining, Dow Chemical is not going to stop making plastics, every corporation on Earth is not going to just give up on the idea of America having ports.
Unlikely. The Midwest agriculture belt is not going to be significantly effected under any scenario with warming <=3C. Rainfall is not going to decrease significantly, the Great Lakes are just fine, and frankly, warmer temps might actually expand the growing area for a lot of staple crops in the American Midwest. China has committed to net zero by 2060, so we're pretty much guaranteed to have less than 3C of warming. All of the 2-3C warming scenarios are neutral-to-great for the American Midwest and bad for the Indian subcontinent.
No one lives there anyway. We'll still be able to grow avocados/oranges/winter greens, so it's a moot point in the grand scheme of things (it's BAD, but not life-critical).
In the global South, absolutely. Things will get brutal. In the USA, no, not really. It won't be any worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. It probably won't even be that bad.
You have a much rosier view of the likely trajectory of climate change than I do. My assumption based on what we know, and the incredible rate at which we're being confronted with what we don't know, is unmitigated and unstoppable warming until the artic and the sea-floor both run out of greenhouse gasses somewhere around +8c.