Pandemic or no, this is gonna be the new normal, especially with the assumed crackdown as the heat continues to boil over in the streets.
Very low chance imo.
I'm a teacher in the southwest. All our districts that I'm aware of are hemorrhaging money this year, because at the end of last Spring thousands of parents were like "Lol actually my kid's just not going to show up and I'll homeschool them," then they realized that homeschooling is hard and sent them back. This year, ask literally any teacher, a 60% class pass rate is unheard of right now.
In my estimation as someone who works closely with my admins when I can, it would take essentially the 28 Days Later pandemic to close schools again. Additionally, attendance probably varies wildly, but parents are working 40-70 hour weeks and need school as a daycare.
Imo it's a lot more likely to go fully private in some weird corrupt "public/private partnership" where a charter school just takes over a highschool indefinitely and we all pay property taxes based on what they ask for or something. I'd say we're 20-30 years from all digital being a likely reality. Major things would have to change- like Grubhub/Ubereats "be your own boss" shit would have to become the dominant way the proletariat collect income, because you can't just leave a 6-14 year old alone with a tablet and expect them to do shit.
This year, ask literally any teacher, a 60% class pass rate is unheard of right now.
What does this mean?
Ask any teacher you can find, almost no classes have >59% of the class passing.
Wait are you saying most children are going to repeat their grade next year??
If teachers/ districts didn't give a shit? That's very likely.
What will probably happen is the higher ups either in districts or state legislature will bend the rules to accommodate most people, or and/or teachers will independently bend rules to make most people pass.
