Everyone keeps saying that Biden has it in the bag, but that’s what they said last time for Hillary. I have this weird feeling he’ll somehow worm his way to victory.

  • Churnthrow123 [none/use name]
    7·
    4 years ago

    The polls are just as bad this time as they were in 2016. People made the exact same arguments to cover for them being intentionally wrong.

    Everyone in media outside of OANN wants Trump gone. They use polling to make it look like he's guaranteed to lose as a way to try to depress turnout. They do this by using insane turnout models that assume that electorate will be even more favorable to Democrats than in 2008.

    The "peaceful transition of power" bullshit is just a way to file up liberals in case Trump wins. They are just copying what the Republicans did constantly under Obama. It's "have you stopped beating your wife?" level discourse.

    If Biden was actually a sure thing with a 10 point lead, there wouldn't be so much COPE and hedging going on by the media.

      • Churnthrow123 [none/use name]
        1·
        4 years ago

        Hillary was up by +10 at this point 4 years ago. People focus on the final polls, which were adjusted to save face, and not the in-race push polls.

        • CanYouFeelItMrKrabs [any, he/him]
          1·
          4 years ago

          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

          She had a 90% chance of winning till the Comey Letter came out and she had a 70% chance of winning. She was expected to win the popular vote by like 3.6%, she won by like 2%. That's normal. You can see the predictions by date if you want