back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now

Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • notceps [he/him]
    ·
    1 day ago

    So following the whole german thing they did have a news brief today and it's about 20 minutes of them dodging the question looking extremely incompetent and getting somewhat agitated I might actually do some translations of that segment but for people who can speak german here ya go.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRl3X5nN4R4

    Translation might happen but I am busy so could also just not happen...

    Edit: Ate something doing a few comments from the start so might pick it up again at some point

    Herr Jung: Mr. Wagner, before we move on to the appointments, I’d like to address the topic of the International Criminal Court because it has been signaled as a matter of significant interest.

    Wagner: Mr. Jung, you may start.

    J: I read your press release regarding this arrest warrant, and it states that the federal government will carefully examine the domestic steps to be taken. However, this leaves open whether the federal government considers the decision of the International Criminal Court binding. Could you clarify this?

    W: I don’t need to clarify it; I can simply refer to what’s stated in the declaration.

    J: Yes, but the declaration doesn’t include what you told us here, for example, in May. Back then, you said Germany would, of course, implement all decisions of the International Criminal Court and abide by law and order. That was clear in May. Today’s statement, however, doesn’t include that, whereas other European states have explicitly said this arrest warrant will be implemented.

    W: I can still only refer to what is stated in this declaration, and that stands.

    J: Mr. Hebestreit, on the same topic, can one interpret this as the federal government doing everything to prevent a situation where an Israeli minister—such as Prime Minister Netanyahu—could be arrested in Germany? That’s how it reads.

    Hebestreit: That is an interpretation you are drawing from the text. I refer to the text itself, and that forms the basis of our actions.

    J: Perhaps I could ask again: why is it so difficult for the federal government to state—given our historical context—that while we support the International Criminal Court in this case, it would be unthinkable for us to arrest an Israeli prime minister in Germany? That would seem justifiable, wouldn’t it?

    W: I understand your point. This is precisely why we issued a declaration that addresses the two conditions we must consider. One is the importance of the International Criminal Court, which we strongly support. The other is the historical responsibility you mentioned. So, this statement should be viewed in light of these two aspects. I might even go so far as to say that I find it difficult to imagine us carrying out an arrest in Germany under these circumstances.

    Herr Wackelt?: Is Mr. Netanyahu welcome in Germany?

    H: I’m not aware of any travel plans by the Israeli Prime Minister.

    W: I wasn’t asking about travel plans; I was asking whether he is welcome.

    H: I have no current requests from the office of the Israeli Prime Minister for him to visit Germany, so I don’t need to comment further on this.

    Frau Pauli: Just briefly, did I understand correctly—it’s difficult for you to carry out an arrest on this basis? So, on...

    H: [Interrupts] No, that would be...

    P: Or on what basis could you carry out an arrest?

    H: Let me be very precise. I said it’s hard for me to imagine that, on this basis... That’s something entirely different...

    P: Yes, that’s why I’m asking for clarification. So precisely.

    H: It’s hard for me to imagine that an arrest would be carried out in Germany on this basis.

    P: But on what basis? There’s the International Criminal Court, which has issued an international arrest warrant. Germany recognizes this court, and... yes, then there’s a problem because it concerns Israel and Germany’s historical responsibility or obligation toward Israel. But this press release doesn’t provide any indication of how the federal government would act if Netanyahu were to come to Germany. And now we can all ask this question ten more times, and the answer probably won’t change, but it still isn’t an answer.

    H: I think it is, but we can certainly have different opinions on that.

    P: Sure. [Laughs while Hebestreit does a Nazi smirk]

    Frau Jäckels: You’ve had months to prepare for this scenario. Has no one in the Federal Chancellery or the Foreign Office thought about the consequences? Why does this still need to be examined now?

    [Long Pause looking at each other]

    H: I.... I don't understand the question

    J: It’s been clear for some time that this scenario could arise—that there could be arrest warrants issued for Netanyahu and Gallant. Why is this still being examined now? You could have addressed this long ago.

    H: I still don’t understand what you’re getting at.

    J: It’s a very straightforward question. You’re now saying the federal government will examine how to implement this decision. But why does this still need to be examined? You could have been preparing for this scenario for months. It’s been clear that this could happen, and even likely that it would.

    H: Well, the question is whether it was likely. But there’s no urgency here. So, let’s move on now.

    This is only like the first 10 minutes this goes on for 30 minutes I might do the rest because there's more shit there but yeah. Like "Oh there's urgency no rush how to deal with this." in the face of Genocide deeply unserious country led by unserious people.

    Edit edit: This is like 5 minutes actually out of 25 minutes but my brain is starting to leak so give me a break they say a bunch of other shit but apparently germany does not recognize the ICC. They are incredibly smug and don't think it necessary to defend the right of the ICC or human rights since Israel now thinks the ICC has no right to exist. Again all of the people up there are like smug nazis and they are all part of the SPD so take from this what you will.