On the other hand, I think that there is an elevated likelihood of the US and China entering armed conflict. Not for any rational reason, but rather because the peaceful rise of China goes against US exceptionalism and white supremacism.
It makes no sense if you look at it rationally, but wars don't always start rationally.
All the major European powers thought that WWI would be an extremely short affair and that the troops would be home by Christmas.
Hitler thought that the UK and France were not going to honor their guarantee with Poland after hanging out Czechoslovakia to dry.
Imperial Japan thought that they could just sink the US fleet and their vastly economically superior opponent would just give up.
America was literally warned by China that China would join the Korean war if US forces approached the Yalu River and that dipshit MacArthur did it anyway.
Wars aren't rational because people aren't always rational.
Well, that's not really "all the stops" then... Also the US isn't gearing up for direct conflict, it would be a proxy war under the guise of humanitarian aid to block the BRI. The unsure factor is how China will respond. If the US started aggression too close to China's boarder, I feel like most of the world except 5 eyes would support China in anti imperialist struggle.
Total conflict is indeed unlikely, but I still think there's a certain likelihood of the US shooting down a Chinese plane or sinking a Chinese ship and China lobbing a few missiles at Guam in retaliation.
Kinda like what happened with Iran at the beginning of the year.
On the other hand, I think that there is an elevated likelihood of the US and China entering armed conflict. Not for any rational reason, but rather because the peaceful rise of China goes against US exceptionalism and white supremacism.
I think that's why the US will pull out all the stops to try to get China to fracture or break apart, but won't go for all-out armed conflict.
deleted by creator
It makes no sense if you look at it rationally, but wars don't always start rationally.
All the major European powers thought that WWI would be an extremely short affair and that the troops would be home by Christmas.
Hitler thought that the UK and France were not going to honor their guarantee with Poland after hanging out Czechoslovakia to dry.
Imperial Japan thought that they could just sink the US fleet and their vastly economically superior opponent would just give up.
America was literally warned by China that China would join the Korean war if US forces approached the Yalu River and that dipshit MacArthur did it anyway.
Wars aren't rational because people aren't always rational.
deleted by creator
Well, that's not really "all the stops" then... Also the US isn't gearing up for direct conflict, it would be a proxy war under the guise of humanitarian aid to block the BRI. The unsure factor is how China will respond. If the US started aggression too close to China's boarder, I feel like most of the world except 5 eyes would support China in anti imperialist struggle.
Total conflict is indeed unlikely, but I still think there's a certain likelihood of the US shooting down a Chinese plane or sinking a Chinese ship and China lobbing a few missiles at Guam in retaliation.
Kinda like what happened with Iran at the beginning of the year.
I sure wouldn't want to be on a US carrier in the Pacific if China gets big mad