Image is of Assad and his family.

After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • gay_king_prince_charles [she/her, he/him]
    ·
    5 days ago

    Could Israel’s Netanyahu be about to agree to a Gaza ceasefire?

    Al Jazeera

    Indications that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be ready to agree to end the assault on Gaza that has killed 44,800 people – with thousands more lost under the rubble and presumed dead – could raise hopes of an end to the war.

    After meeting with Netanyahu this week, United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said he “got the sense” Netanyahu was “ready to do a deal”. Until now, Netanyahu has been seen as blocking any chances of a ceasefire.

    In September, Netanyahu’s 11th-hour objections sank a ceasefire deal that was reportedly near being signed. Documents he used to justify his decision to continue bombing Gaza were later found by Israeli authorities to have been forged.

    Since then, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for both men for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Gaza since the war began in October 2023.

    On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and expressing support for the work of UNRWA (UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees), which Israel banned from operating in Israel and the Palestinian territory.

    What would a ceasefire mean for people in Gaza? Everything, particularly for those in the north.

    Rumours that a ceasefire agreement may be close are near-constant among those trapped in the enclave, desperate for an end to the bombardment.

    “In the last week, there have been two, maybe three occasions where the community around us erupted in cheers and whistling and applause because of rumours that there has been an agreed ceasefire,” Louise Waterbridge, senior emergency officer at the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), told Al Jazeera.

    The north of Gaza remains under total Israeli siege, with 65,000 to 75,000 Palestinians trapped behind the siege lines, the UN estimates, as the Israeli military has prevented aid from reaching them. Israeli forces have essentially cut off the northern part of Gaza from the south.

    Aid organisations have long warned of famine in Gaza, and many believe that it has already taken hold in north Gaza.

    Gaza Palestinian children queue for food in Deir el-Balah, Gaza Strip, December 13, 2024 [Abdel Kareem Hana/AP] Is Netanyahu bending to international pressure? It’s unlikely.

    Israel increasingly sees itself as “defiant” of the international community as it continues to launch attacks on Syria, effectively annexed areas of southern Lebanon and additional areas of the occupied Golan Heights in Syria.

    Just before the UNGA vote this week, Israel dismissed UN objections to its invasion of Syrian territory, saying its actions are necessary to “secure” its borders from the buffer zone that has been there, policed by the UN, since 1974.

    Israel has also shelled UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, refused UN demands to withdraw from Palestine’s occupied territory and claims that any criticism of its actions is anti-Semitic, including the legal process against it in the ICC and the genocide case brought against it by South Africa in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    So, why would Netanyahu agree to a ceasefire deal now? Because now is a politically opportune time for him, observers say.

    Until now, Netanyahu has refused a ceasefire, instead claiming to be waiting for an ill-defined “absolute victory”, a promise dismissed as “gibberish” in August by Gallant.

    However, with the fall of the Syrian regime, which was backed by Iran, Netanyahu may see an opportunity.

    Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, Netanyahu hailed the collapse of what he described as regional nemesis Iran’s “axis of evil” following the fall of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, saying: “The absolute victory they mocked is at hand.”

    What is Hamas’s position? In the most recent negotiations in Egypt, Hamas has reportedly agreed that Israeli troops can remain within Gaza. It had previously said complete withdrawal is a non-negotiable part of any ceasefire deal.

    According to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Hamas has now accepted that Israeli troops can stay in Gaza “temporarily”.

    They would remain in their existing fortified positions along the Philadelphi Corridor – controlling access between Egypt and Gaza – and the Netzarim Corridor, which splits north Gaza from south, during a 60-day “pause” in the fighting.

    The newspaper also reported that under the prospective deal, Hamas would release 30 vulnerable captives from Israel named on a list it has provided to Egyptian authorities.

    In return, Israel would free Palestinian prisoners and allow for an increased flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly said Israel is blocking aid from entering Gaza, something Israel denies.

    INTERACTIVE-GAZA-NORTH-Aid blocked in north Gaza for 53 days-NOV27-2024 copy 2-1732705825 (Al Jazeera) Has Netanyahu prolonged the war on Gaza for his own ends? Almost everyone thinks so.

    The families of the Israeli captives being held in Gaza, Netanyahu’s domestic and international allies, and many of his political opponents, have all accused Netanyahu of prolonging the war in Gaza to avoid accountability.

    Like the corruption charges that Netanyahu is facing in court in Tel Aviv, as well as any investigation into his alleged failings during the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, during which 1,139 people died and about 250 were taken captive.

    In June, as US ceasefire proposals floundered, even his principal ally, US President Joe Biden, accused Netanyahu of prolonging the war on Gaza for political reasons.

    Both former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and one of Netanyahu’s principal allies, Benny Gantz, accused Netanyahu of the same.