RANT - THE ESTABLISHMENT WINS2020 is going to be a resounding victory for the Democratic establishment.Donald Trump would lose to a rusty trash can, but when Biden wins, Dem leaders will claim that shunning the left and embracing Bush-era war criminals is what did it.— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) October 25, 2020
I just think he's going to get a lot of votes that aren't accounted for in polls, and a lot of the people saying they're going to vote for Biden, are either (a) from the massive voter group that just says stuff and doesn't really decide till 8 seconds before getting in the voting booth, or (b) not going to vote at all because they don't actually have anything motivating them to vote other than "Trump sucks".
I think the electoral map will look a lot like '16: Biden will win all the same states Clinton won by large margins, and Trump will win all the same states he won by large margins last time. And then it will be up to like 10 swing states, and I don't think the polling is reliable to conclude that Biden will cakewalk there. He might win, I'm not saying it's impossible, but I think the triumphalism is a little bit unwarranted at this point in time.
I saw a think about how many new voters each party registered, republicans way up in quite a few swing states so those are people who might not be counted in the polls. But yeah good points there is definitely still a path for him to win legitimately
You are not wrong, but I see a path to victory where he wins in a legit way, too.
I don't see it but that doesn't mean it isn't there. How do you think he can win?
I just think he's going to get a lot of votes that aren't accounted for in polls, and a lot of the people saying they're going to vote for Biden, are either (a) from the massive voter group that just says stuff and doesn't really decide till 8 seconds before getting in the voting booth, or (b) not going to vote at all because they don't actually have anything motivating them to vote other than "Trump sucks".
I think the electoral map will look a lot like '16: Biden will win all the same states Clinton won by large margins, and Trump will win all the same states he won by large margins last time. And then it will be up to like 10 swing states, and I don't think the polling is reliable to conclude that Biden will cakewalk there. He might win, I'm not saying it's impossible, but I think the triumphalism is a little bit unwarranted at this point in time.
I saw a think about how many new voters each party registered, republicans way up in quite a few swing states so those are people who might not be counted in the polls. But yeah good points there is definitely still a path for him to win legitimately