This feels like the mid-to-late game in Plague Inc.

  • KiaKaha [he/him]
    hexagon
    ·
    4 years ago

    Assuming a mortality rate of 0.4%, it’s approximately 352 deaths.

      • hagensfohawk [none/use name]
        ·
        4 years ago

        Case fatality rate is 2.7%. KiaKaha I think is referencing the infection fatality rate, which adjusts for undiagnosed cases.

        But these are known cases so the best estimate for future deaths is the CFR. So we're looking at 2400 deaths

      • KiaKaha [he/him]
        hexagon
        ·
        4 years ago

        Depends. It gets lower if you account for all the asymptomatic cases.

        • DasKarlBarx [he/him,comrade/them]
          ·
          4 years ago

          Sure but this is odd known cases so like the person above said since these are known cases it's not going to be 0.4% of those.

          • KiaKaha [he/him]
            hexagon
            ·
            4 years ago

            Depends how the cases were detected—but yeah the 0.4% was being optimistic.

            • DasKarlBarx [he/him,comrade/them]
              ·
              4 years ago

              I'm confused as to what you mean? Cases are recorded through positive tests sent to the CDC. (maybe after going to the white house first? I can't remember if they stopped doing that or not).

              Testing requirements vary from state to state, but that's how cases are detected and how they derive the numbers.

              • KiaKaha [he/him]
                hexagon
                ·
                4 years ago

                I mean, if tests are done by random sampling, contact tracing, or by mass testing a la Chinese cities, then you get a whole lot of asymptomatics registering as cases. If you only test when people present at hospital, you get only the worst cases.

                • DasKarlBarx [he/him,comrade/them]
                  ·
                  4 years ago

                  Yes, but the west outside of a handful of studies only tests when people show symptoms and don't do mass testing on any scale.

      • Snakechapman [any]
        ·
        4 years ago

        Its 3% for over 65-s. It's never been 3% for all positive cases