I suppose this is a similar question to "What might happen if America actually does balkanize?" but applied to the present (or near-future) instead of some point in the 2060s or whatever.
I suppose this is a similar question to "What might happen if America actually does balkanize?" but applied to the present (or near-future) instead of some point in the 2060s or whatever.
Currently, the most likely scenario is that Texas leaves and brings Florida with it, with the second most plausible being that California, Oregon, and Washington leave as a group. They're both mutually exclusive scenarios, but neither of these are currently particularly likely as both of the groups behind each movement are basically competing to have their side control the federal government and be the voice of the entire nation.
The Deseret Nationalist weirdoes are deeply unpopular and any sincere aspects of the modern Deseret movement want to remain part of the US and mostly just want to change Utah's name and expand its borders into surrounding states to encompass more Mormon communities currently in those states.
Neo-Confederates are a joke, they're perfectly happy just taking over the US government, there are legitimately like under 30 guys in League of the South that actually still want to secede.
Alaska's independence movement is basically just their Libertarian Party and was the first to be fully coopted back into the GOP, like 15 years before the Tea Party movement even started.
The New England independence people are a handful of online goofs who want to unify three different movements that are mostly defunct. Their entire existence is one website, and the goals of each of the movements in NH, VE, and ME are in direct opposition to one another so tying together for viability will be impossible. Each of those movements is basically dead and amount to a website and a slogan, a commune in the woods with no recruiting or goals, and a facebook group, respectively.
The Chicano Movement has largely given up on nationalist aspects like the concept of forming Aztlán as an independent nation. This is due to a bunch of different factors, but COINTELPRO was no small part in disempowering and redirecting that energy during the 70s.
The Republic of New Afrika has effectively ended as a concept thanks to COINTELPRO. Any active org that claims that as a goal is at best populated by Feds for the purposes of monitoring leftists and at worst an Op to make the concept unpopular.
Various Indigenous movements currently exist, but are actively being suppressed by both the government and settlers on the land. Proposals like the Republic of Lakotah don't seem to be likely to gain recognition, unfortunately.