Maine being 50/50 is definitely not happening. It has 4 delegates that go proportionally, and Maine is looking very blue this time. It awards 2 for popular vote, which Biden will get, then the other two for the winner of the two congressional districts, which will be at least 50/50. So Biden will get 3 delegates, or 4, if his win is distributed evenly across the state.
EDIT: I'm not sure if the prediction above is counting on 2/4 or 3/4 delegates though. If its counting on 3, maybe its in line.
Oh, so the only state result thats not the same as what the betting odds are predicting already is Biden losing Pennsylvania? Terrifying. https://www.predictit.org/
Less than 4, so splitting the difference is a margin of less than 3. So a similar polling error to 2016 still has Biden winning PA, while a similar polling error in WI means it goes to Trump again.
What am I missing? Taking 538's margin and adding in the polling error is 4.4% in Trump's favor. Current polling margin in PA is 5.1 so the same error still has Biden winning.
i mean originally i was pointing out that numerous polls had clinton up like 10 points, not the aggregate score, and when i said split the difference i was just saying in general since you were looking at rcp and i was looking at 538, not to actually split the difference and apply the percentage points.
it's cool that you're looking at this mathematically, but as i live here i'm just letting you know there's no way biden takes pa.
because outside of the major cities the entire state is a bunch of racist white people. trump signs litter every street. they still fly confederate flags and shit out here
Was that not the case four years ago? It's not like PA was a blowout, Trump won it by a hair. Do you not think it will be close again? What margin would you predict?
it'll probably still only be a couple percentage points, but there's not like less trump people than there were, and fracking didn't really get mentioned 4 years ago. even though there's 0 chance biden does anything against fracking these people aren't even going to take a chance.
i'd probably say it's going to be like 52-48, with trump taking it for sure.
Idk if anything is too crazy to happen but their are some conflicting picks. Like Biden wins arizona but not florida? If he's ahead enough for arizona he will definitely be getting some of the closer states
what about this map is the least likely?
Maine being 50/50 is definitely not happening. It has 4 delegates that go proportionally, and Maine is looking very blue this time. It awards 2 for popular vote, which Biden will get, then the other two for the winner of the two congressional districts, which will be at least 50/50. So Biden will get 3 delegates, or 4, if his win is distributed evenly across the state.
EDIT: I'm not sure if the prediction above is counting on 2/4 or 3/4 delegates though. If its counting on 3, maybe its in line.
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Oh, so the only state result thats not the same as what the betting odds are predicting already is Biden losing Pennsylvania? Terrifying. https://www.predictit.org/
I would say Biden winning Arizona and Trump winning Pennsylvania probably won’t happen.
trump is pretty likely to win pennsylvania. in 2016 polls had hillary up by like ten points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
Hillary was up 2 points, you're probably thinking of Wisconsin where she was up 6-7.
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538 had her up almost 5. split the diff
Less than 4, so splitting the difference is a margin of less than 3. So a similar polling error to 2016 still has Biden winning PA, while a similar polling error in WI means it goes to Trump again.
nah dude.
What am I missing? Taking 538's margin and adding in the polling error is 4.4% in Trump's favor. Current polling margin in PA is 5.1 so the same error still has Biden winning.
i mean originally i was pointing out that numerous polls had clinton up like 10 points, not the aggregate score, and when i said split the difference i was just saying in general since you were looking at rcp and i was looking at 538, not to actually split the difference and apply the percentage points.
it's cool that you're looking at this mathematically, but as i live here i'm just letting you know there's no way biden takes pa.
Why's that?
because outside of the major cities the entire state is a bunch of racist white people. trump signs litter every street. they still fly confederate flags and shit out here
Was that not the case four years ago? It's not like PA was a blowout, Trump won it by a hair. Do you not think it will be close again? What margin would you predict?
it'll probably still only be a couple percentage points, but there's not like less trump people than there were, and fracking didn't really get mentioned 4 years ago. even though there's 0 chance biden does anything against fracking these people aren't even going to take a chance.
i'd probably say it's going to be like 52-48, with trump taking it for sure.
Idk if anything is too crazy to happen but their are some conflicting picks. Like Biden wins arizona but not florida? If he's ahead enough for arizona he will definitely be getting some of the closer states