That's my gut feeling.
I don't think it's at all impossible for Biden to win, but that's my gut feeling.
To be more specific: I think the "Red Mirage" scenario will happen. Trump will have a lead on election night and he and the Republicans will pull some fuckery to stop mail-ins from being counted in the right places.
If it gets to the Supreme Court, either Biden and the Dems will pull a Gore and surrender the election without a fight, or the Court will rule in his favor and hand him victory.
History will repeat itself.
I'm skeptical that Trump will lead on election night though, so this kind of falls apart with that.
He will still say it was rigged. There are zero scenarios where Trump admits he lost fair and square.
Sure but it only matters if he can make a convincing case based on vote counts
I guess it depends. The military said they wouldn't intervene in the event of a disputed election so maybe he will just refuse to leave and enough cops and DHS feds will go along with it. I honestly have no fucking idea what he will do. I usually feel like I'm pretty good at making predictions but homie is erratic and everything is wild rn.
DHS feds are the biggest threat for sure if he tries to straight up not leave, they will do literally anything he says, but I doubt he has the secret service's loyalty to make that happen.
I've read that he actually did slowly purge leadership in the SS. I don't remember the specifics though.
If he did then that's risky business, though I have no idea if the president even has direct authority over them.
I mean it doesn't really matter what the law says, as long as the people are loyal to him they can always break the law. I'm not saying he will definitely do that but that's how you do a coup.
Oh yeah, definitely. I'm just skeptical that he has any serious loyalty beyond DHS people, and they alone aren't enough to do a coup. He's not exactly a guy who inspires loyalty in government bureaucrats (who mostly pull the strings on armed goons).
It's a weird situation because he commands extreme loyalty from a very large group of armed goons that he doesn't actually directly control, cops. I'm not really sure if he can pull it off but at the same time I'm not sure anyone can stop him.
Trump's predicted, even now, to have more support with in-person election day voters than with mail-ins, that's where that come from.
This logic only applies to mail-in ballots that arrive after election day, though. The vast majority of early voting was in-person or mail-in well before election day, so it will get counted along with day-of in person votes just the same.
It should also be noted however that for the past several months Trump and the Republicans have done their damnedest to fuck with the entire mail-in system and make it as broken and inefficient as possible.
We'll find out soon enough whether or not they did enough damage to make up the difference.
What they fucked with was the USPS, not the way mail-in votes are counted (generally, they did get a few court cases here and there to limit mail-in counting). And I don't have numbers for this, but I'm pretty confident most of those mail-in votes have already arrived, and there are way more in-person early votes than mail-in.
I think you might be right, maybe, for a few reasons. Some states, like florida, have to have all votes counted on election day so theirs won't be late. Arizona is allowed to count theirs early and most their mail ins are already counted.