Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you'd get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!
Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It's a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.
The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.
he was. that's how probabilities work. he could have studied the situation better but there is a ceiling to how well you can predict chaotic things.
yeah the only factor that was noticeably butchered or ignored in predicting the 2016 outcome was level of education, which turned out to be a major indicator
but that 1 thing doesn't make Nate Silver a loser
True, what makes him a loser is being a neoliberal pundit pretending to be unbiased