I fucking hate this. Its all for literally nothing. For fucking money. Money. Imaginary pieces of paper. Even worse, imaginary numbers on a fucking screen. Data. It's all for fucking nothing. We won't avoid the 1.5 C mark, and it might come in 5 years. 2 C would mean basically the end of any semblance of normal, at all, and the collapse of the global south. Forget even 3 degrees, I'd probably already be dead. They won. They fucking won. No revolution in the Imperial Core is possible. Everyone is a chud, or a lib, or a left anticommunist. We can't fucking win. It's over. The world is over.
Society will take a century to do anything we call a "collapse" in hindsight. We'll limp along cannibalizing ourselves for generations, climate refugees flooding north as southern states shrivel up into Petro deserts.
But will the fundamental extractionary police state of the last 250 years change? I'm not holding my breath. We'll still be a plantation society posing as a liberal democracy, with the same idiots and asshats controlling the milling herds of oofs with racist dog whistles and paramilitary crackdowns.
I don't know if I agree with that. If we see mass simultaneous famines (and we're already seeing worrying impacts on crops this year), shit will hit the fan really, really fast, and I don't think there's any guessing what comes out of the other end of that process.
We're a country that throws 40% of its agricultural production in the trash to keep prices up. We dedicate enormous amounts of arable land to ranch feed and grazing. We're running on antiquated and woefully inefficient infrastructure.
Any famine will be entirely engineered.
even if you're right (and I think you being glibly naive) that won't make it any less real
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You're not thinking long term enough. What if, over the course of the year, all the biggest producers of staple foods see a 50% loss of crop yield? That there's just not enough to go around, full stop. Some countries who normally export their yields won't. Countries that depend on imports will not have enough food to go around, amd the richest will do their best to buy up whatever is available because the alternative is becoming a failed state. There will be failed states.
Some countries will have stored grain, corn, etc as a buffer against this. But then what happens when there's a 50% loss in global crop yield two years in a row?
China is already considering this scenario and is trying to make plans to prepare against it, but we're all running out of time and nitrogen fertilizer is both very energy (ie fossil fuels) dependent and necessary for the crop yields the global population needs to survive.
Our food production is very, very vulnerable and is going to be one of the biggest instigators to everything falling apart.
What if they see 100%? That would be real bad.
But is that happening? Not according to the USDA. We're talking about the worst years producing sub-single digit shortfalls. Absolutely nothing like a 50% shortfall is happening.
Nobody is storing grain against a 50% reduction in domestic productivity. That would just mean a famine, full stop. But, again, nothing in the data is suggesting we're anywhere near that level of shortfall.
You're going to have to show me where, in the current or subsequent Five Year Plan, the Chinese government is planning for a 50% shortfall in domestic agricultural production.
I don't know what "very, very" is supposed to mean here. What is the lynchpin of domestic agricultural production in the US or China that would result in a 50% fall in crop yields?
Again, I am not talking about what's going to happen tomorrow or next year. It might not be ten years from now either (at least I hope not). We are already seeing the impacts now, yes, but we're not at 1.5 C yet nor at 2 C yet.
These events do happen already, just not globally. Drought in the US in 2021 destroyed some states' grain harvests, some states saw an almost 50% drop compared to 2020. For now, other states pick up the slack, or other seasons' planting does, but as we get closer to 2 C, the extreme weather events become more frequent and more widespread.
Drought, heat killing plants, floods, soil erosion and disruption in fertilizer production and supply lines.
China is not currently preparing for 50% crop shortfall globally, but food security and independence is a major concern for China and Xi has talked about it repeatedly.
Which state saw a 50% yield drop?
The country with a long and awful history of famine is going to have politicians fixated on preventing it from happening again.
If climate change weren't a thing, Xi would still be talking about it, because food security in a country of 1.4B people is vital.
The collapse is already here, it is just unevenly distributed
This is a good point, kinda hard for for a US collapse to happen all at once, especially with the way the country is spread out
I think the veneer of liberal democracy will absolutely collapse in our lifetime. And I'm not so sure that the would-be plantation societies in the imperial core will be able to successfully re subordinate the global south. The periphery just might pull off something special before the full collapse
One of the perks of living in the US North / Canada is that you've got tons of potable water and some of the last arable land suitable for commercial farming.
But a glut of desperate laborers combined with a rapacious commercial sector leadership means we'll be doing all our old tricks to these new people.
I dunno, the US seems really eager to kill all its arable soil with roundup as quickly as possible.
Fair enough. We're definitely fucked there.
Somewhat. 1/10 Americans depend on the Colorado River for water and that shit is so mismanaged it's likely to go dry.
It'll go dry because we keep draining it. But California has had record rainfall this year thanks to that freak west-coast tropical storm.
Its not like we just don't have any water. Its that we've built a massive irrigation network that sucks it off before it reaches the ocean.