Indian politics are super regional, but the main political faultline was caste, with lower castes voting Congress and upper castes voting BJP. Going full nationalist, Modi has united a critical mass of castes and even cowed Muslim parties into cooperation. Congress leadership is super out of touch, and they and the communist parties (outside of Kerala) are perceived with some truth as hopelessly corrupt.
While the economy was growing, Modi could successfully position himself as the anti-corruption patriot. Now that the economy is reeling, he’s (attempting) to go shock doctrine on the peasants.
I don’t think a viable nationwide electoral opponent is out there, unless the Congress Party cleans house. But rural unrest could split off BJP regional allies. Hard to say what’s next.
Indian politics are super regional, but the main political faultline was caste, with lower castes voting Congress and upper castes voting BJP. Going full nationalist, Modi has united a critical mass of castes and even cowed Muslim parties into cooperation. Congress leadership is super out of touch, and they and the communist parties (outside of Kerala) are perceived with some truth as hopelessly corrupt.
While the economy was growing, Modi could successfully position himself as the anti-corruption patriot. Now that the economy is reeling, he’s (attempting) to go shock doctrine on the peasants.
I don’t think a viable nationwide electoral opponent is out there, unless the Congress Party cleans house. But rural unrest could split off BJP regional allies. Hard to say what’s next.