I'm fairly convinced that the status quo can do nothing to prevent the collapse of complex industrial society. Obviously it's a complicated topic, but if you assume the position that by 2030 there will be dramatic, uncontrollable warming of the planet (and all of the side effects that will bring), what is to be done to prevent that?
As a guy with a decent work-from-home kind of job (for now) and enough resources to be comfortable, it's been incredibly tempting during quarantine to think about building a house off the grid, finding a stable source of drinking water, and building a sustainable farming homestead in rural America. 2020 has demonstrated that things don't always just work out. I'm worried about the precarious material conditions that pervade contemporary urban culture (at least from the perspective of sustainability if food/water/power systems are interrupted). And I know I could develop the skills I need to live like that.
But obviously, something can be done to prevent a collapse. We could work together to ensure the stability of urban environments, and produce all of the energy and matetials we need here, locally. We could put everyone to work with this goal in mind. We could build a better world collectively.
But how? How do I find a group of people to work with? How do I convince the liberals who just shrug and say, man, isn't it just terrible that trump is in charge? How do I find anyone who's thinking about this shit, and realizes that actually yes, this can all fall apart. Things are not as stable as they seem. Climate change is literally the only issue that matters in any time frame beyond 10 years.
What is next? What is there to do?
So, the appropriate response is "global command war economy now, zero carbon in five years"
That's not happening, and even something close to it isn't happening. If you only care about yourself, may I recommend New Zealand or the agricultural zones around Lake Baikal as likely surviving industrial enclaves, in the worst case.
Anprim and Preindustrial Agri wont work, both require a stable climate in the medium term. An industrial society is our only hope.
So what we need to prepare for is this.
-At least 60% of all agricultural zones are now going to be untenable by 2070 or thereabouts, probably more, no new zones will open up because melting permafrost does not a topsoil make. The rest will have vastly smaller and less predictable output, because seasons are not really gonna be a thing in the next few hundred years. Pastoralism is more tenable but there's not enough of it.
-Almost all current Ports will be unusable by then, and sea level and weather unpredictable so you can't build new ones, so no international trade. Air travel will be limited because carbon. Airship gang is feasible, but limited as well.
-the above two mean a)massive migrations (billions of people) b)breakdown of global trade that isn't by train.
-So what we need, technologically, is urban farming that can feed whole cities under arbitrary climate. And an early 21st century zero-carbon industrial base that can establish moderate levels of autarchy with usable urban populations of sub-10 million people. And then work out how to politically establish zones for 8 billion people from the remaining habitable areas.
-Finally, wherever possible excess industrial surplus needs to go into carbon scrubbing.
These look impossible, but there are groups working on each of these. A lot of smart people aren't blind and are putting in the groundwork they can in hopes people will wake up.
This blog, by a eco-leftist author (who is a great read btw) has some convincing arguments and some pointers on what is to be done.
http://dubiousprospects.blogspot.com/2018/08/this-regrettable-map.html
Luckily that's less farmland than we could just let back into the wild today if more-or-less everyone switched to vegetarianism/veganism
Yes, but recall that the ones that are going are mostly our high yield food production ones, and the surviving ones are going to have to learn how to farm without things like seasons, carbon intensive fertiliser production, or reliable pollinators. All remaining meat production is either going to be grass fed or invertebrate, and it's going to be used because they aren't shipping grain there.
Check the optimistic map in the link, and colour everything above/below 60 degrees brown as well.
Ya, I live in a farming region and it's already become a lot harder to farm, because of the weather extremes. Month-long droughts are common, and then you'll get a whole summer's rain in two days. And it's only gonna get harder and harder! Good thing us hoomans are super flexible and resilient ;) :red-fist:
I'm confident we will survive with some kind of civilisation intact, and "everybody lives" is still within reach. But it's going to be a fun 500 years for sure.
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