Potential conflict between US and Africa is kinda weird for me right now. For years I was confident that the next big hot war would be in that continent after the Middle East for the reasons you listed but it ended up being in Ukraine instead. And tracking the American troop deployments atm, they're largely concentrated near China and more recently, Iran
I wonder if the failures in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq has caused the US to switch focus and target the kings directly. Or possibly the presence of French and Wagner soldiers are deterring them away
The most hope I have ever felt was when the US intelligence apparatus tries and failed to create second and third fronts against Russia in the caucauses, followed by the coup in Niger which signalled that not only did the West not have control but that Russia was capable, with a much smaller military, of maintaining three objectives simultaneously (Ukraine, reserved homeland defenses, material support for Niger and others).
My best guess on how it's come to this is that the USSR, despite all it's failures, was perfectly suited to a) defending the homeland militarily and b) outperforming Western intelligence including spy hunting. I think China intelligence likely collaborated with the KGB to develop similar spy hunting capabilities even during the split, and the PLA demonstrated how to safely break Western indoctrination and maintain loyalty. I think these things have created the conditions to outperform the US on intelligence in some dimensions, obviously not all.
My continued hope is that the US does not have the intelligence it needs to outmaneuver the global resistance, though we know full well they are more than equipped to completely outmaneuver domestic threats.
Potential conflict between US and Africa is kinda weird for me right now. For years I was confident that the next big hot war would be in that continent after the Middle East for the reasons you listed but it ended up being in Ukraine instead. And tracking the American troop deployments atm, they're largely concentrated near China and more recently, Iran
I wonder if the failures in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq has caused the US to switch focus and target the kings directly. Or possibly the presence of French and Wagner soldiers are deterring them away
The most hope I have ever felt was when the US intelligence apparatus tries and failed to create second and third fronts against Russia in the caucauses, followed by the coup in Niger which signalled that not only did the West not have control but that Russia was capable, with a much smaller military, of maintaining three objectives simultaneously (Ukraine, reserved homeland defenses, material support for Niger and others).
My best guess on how it's come to this is that the USSR, despite all it's failures, was perfectly suited to a) defending the homeland militarily and b) outperforming Western intelligence including spy hunting. I think China intelligence likely collaborated with the KGB to develop similar spy hunting capabilities even during the split, and the PLA demonstrated how to safely break Western indoctrination and maintain loyalty. I think these things have created the conditions to outperform the US on intelligence in some dimensions, obviously not all.
My continued hope is that the US does not have the intelligence it needs to outmaneuver the global resistance, though we know full well they are more than equipped to completely outmaneuver domestic threats.