I’d guess life will start resembling pre-pandemic around the middle of the year. The vaccine is out and distribution will improve over time. We already have the infrastructure to vaccinate a million people a day. If we approach and hold that pace in the US that’s half the population vaccinated by the summer. Add that to the 20 or so percent of Americans who will be immune due to infection and herd immunity in midsummer is completely realistic.
New cases and Deaths are probably peaking right now and if the vaccine rolls out at that pace should plummet in the spring as the country warms up and there are fewer vulnerable people. Daily cases could be 10% of what they are right now by April and 1% of what they are right now by June.
January and February will be very dark, however, the collapse porn in this thread is not supported by the science. I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of the year is under 600k.
I’d guess life will start resembling pre-pandemic around the middle of the year. The vaccine is out and distribution will improve over time. We already have the infrastructure to vaccinate a million people a day. If we approach and hold that pace in the US that’s half the population vaccinated by the summer. Add that to the 20 or so percent of Americans who will be immune due to infection and herd immunity in midsummer is completely realistic.
New cases and Deaths are probably peaking right now and if the vaccine rolls out at that pace should plummet in the spring as the country warms up and there are fewer vulnerable people. Daily cases could be 10% of what they are right now by April and 1% of what they are right now by June.
January and February will be very dark, however, the collapse porn in this thread is not supported by the science. I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of the year is under 600k.