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The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
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Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
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Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose
These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.
Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?
Entirely correct. Hamas has the superior position going forward: Netanyahu has made a great miscalculation, and many Western governments have walked into a terrible trap. Despite having the best propaganda, and immense power to disseminate (dis)information, the online illusions created by the IDF are just that, and will not hold up: the world does not support Israel.
Did Bibi forget that Gaza was a military quagmire 20 years ago?