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The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
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Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
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Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose
These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.
Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?
The land invasion is irrelevant if international pressure to lift the genocidal blockade does not exceed the pressure of a hostile population who knows their oppression will end in genocide; that first pressure will never become the dominant aspect. Instead, Israel can bomb and starve forever and the Israeli population is radicalized enough to accept the losses from having a semi-porous border.
A direct assault would probably end as you described, both on the ground and in terms of propaganda. Which is why they are hemming and hawing. Instead, the threat is armed as a backstop to prevent further intervention by the anti-Israeli Arab forces.
They are gambling that international-political-death by a thousand papercuts is less likely to result in the expansion of conflict than a direct ground invasion.