Might be worth noting that $15/hr wage is already getting phased in across numerous large-pop states into 2023. The current federal proposal won't have any impact on those areas, as it lags behind the state curve.

Arizona already has a $12/hr minimum right now (with Flagstaff and Phoenix doing $15). Even fucking Arkansas bumped their wage to the Manchin-approved $11/hr this year.

Meanwhile, prevailing cost-of-living in the US averages around $16/hr. Simple supply/demand forces wages up to the $15/hr level in many parts of the country, as you cannot afford to cover the price to live where you work without it. Corners of North Dakota were paying $20-25/hr for service sector work due to the incredibly low supply of human beings to do labor in a corner of the country that was O&G rich and infrastructure poor.

Manchin's plan appears to be to set the wage rate so low that no business actually notices the increase. And Democrats are going to cave to his demand, because they think he'd rather spike the entire stimulus than rubber-stamp what will amount to nominal prevailing wage rates in his own state in the next five years.