I read that these predictions did not take into account rona, gerrymandering, voter supression nor complications with mail in ballots sooooo....
Edit: Thank you everyone for pointing out that gerrymandering does not apply to a presidential race, I am but a humble peasant from Soviet Canuckistan and did not realise this about your fine, world class democracy, sorry
I've built a model to predict the outcome of the presidential election, and the neat bit is, it doesn't take into account any of the major factors that will determine the outcome of the presidential election.
These sort of predictions take into account gerrymandering*. They also normally take into account voter participation rate, which includes voter suppression but politely weasels its way around mentioning it. Adjusting for voter participation rate is where most of the differing models, gut instincts, and spin enter the model - that part's legitimately hard and the people trying to deal with it are inherently biased. Do you use the historic rate even though there's pretty clear evidence for increasing voter suppression? How do you model that increase?
*Also lol @ the idea that the national election isn't gerrymandered. The state borders heavily favor conservative candidates, and neglecting to change that is the same as doing it intentionally in the first place.
It doesn't matter for the office of president, voter suppression is a much larger deal. Cities are generally strongholds for blue candidates so you'll see the local elections board comprised of old white men from the cities' suburbs place only a token amount of polling places in the city. Voting lines stretch for miles every presidential election and it's not uncommon for people to have to wait 8+ hours to vote.
That is so utterly fucked up. I've only ever had to wait longer than 20 min in one election and that was a municipal election that had way more turnout than they expected. JFC
Entire states vote for President. Districts in those states change every 10 years so those can be gerrymandered for positions in Congress. States overall stay the same so there is no gerrymandering for president.
I read that these predictions did not take into account rona, gerrymandering, voter supression nor complications with mail in ballots sooooo....
Edit: Thank you everyone for pointing out that gerrymandering does not apply to a presidential race, I am but a humble peasant from Soviet Canuckistan and did not realise this about your fine, world class democracy, sorry
I've built a model to predict the outcome of the presidential election, and the neat bit is, it doesn't take into account any of the major factors that will determine the outcome of the presidential election.
These sort of predictions take into account gerrymandering*. They also normally take into account voter participation rate, which includes voter suppression but politely weasels its way around mentioning it. Adjusting for voter participation rate is where most of the differing models, gut instincts, and spin enter the model - that part's legitimately hard and the people trying to deal with it are inherently biased. Do you use the historic rate even though there's pretty clear evidence for increasing voter suppression? How do you model that increase?
*Also lol @ the idea that the national election isn't gerrymandered. The state borders heavily favor conservative candidates, and neglecting to change that is the same as doing it intentionally in the first place.
I mean yeah it's a prediction based on polling, it can't possible take those important factors into account
Does gerrymandering matter in a general election?
Hmm good point. Sorry I'm not American so I don't fully comprehend the nuances of your world class democracy lol
It doesn't matter for the office of president, voter suppression is a much larger deal. Cities are generally strongholds for blue candidates so you'll see the local elections board comprised of old white men from the cities' suburbs place only a token amount of polling places in the city. Voting lines stretch for miles every presidential election and it's not uncommon for people to have to wait 8+ hours to vote.
That is so utterly fucked up. I've only ever had to wait longer than 20 min in one election and that was a municipal election that had way more turnout than they expected. JFC
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Entire states vote for President. Districts in those states change every 10 years so those can be gerrymandered for positions in Congress. States overall stay the same so there is no gerrymandering for president.
I don’t think so, since results are per-state you would need to gerrymander the state borders... 👀
Edit: I was talking about the presidential race, it still matters for house races and state legislatures