:france-cool:
"In January the general staff quietly established ten working groups to examine the country’s readiness for high-intensity war. French generals reckon that they have a decade or so to prepare for it. The groups cover everything from munition shortages to the resilience of society, including whether citizens are “ready to accept the level of casualties we have never seen since world war two”, says one participant. The spectre of high-end war is now so widespread in French military thinking that the scenario has its own acronym: HEM, or hypothèse d'engagement majeur (hypothesis of major engagement). The presumed opponents are unnamed, but analysts point not only to Russia, but also Turkey or a North African country."
Obviously, Turkey and France aren't exactly best buds. While the brain trust that uses /r/geopolitics, /r/neoliberal as NATO flairs think that just because these two are in an alliance of convenience they will be forever, it wouldn't surprise me if they actually got into some kind of conflict that would shatter NATO.
Not sure what France is gearing up for, the only actually sensical target is some north African country. Possibly Libya to "re-stabilize" it. I don't know if this type of gearing up is actually typical for France or not, either. It would be normal for the US, I guess.
The article mentioned an increase in troops in the Sahel region (think Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, etc.)
They're planning a high intensity war with casualties unlike anything we've seen since WWII, and their opponents are unarmed? What the fuck?
Unnamed, not unarmed. But it's still a wtf moment 'cause like, what exactly do they think is about to happen that's causing them to look into preparing for WW2 level casualties?
Realistically, the only wars that could produce those kinds of casualties would be wars against countries that have a (roughly) comparable level of military power to France, which would basically rule out any countries that aren't in Europe/NATO except Israel, Iran, DPRK, ROK, Japan, Australia and China. Vietnam, Cuba and Venezuela could probably also be included owing to their massive reservist/irregular forces, though they would be more useful in a guerilla war rather than the high-intesity war France seems to be preparing for.
Edit: Brazil, Mexico, India and Pakistan also have militaries that are at least comparable to France, so they could be added as well.
Turkey is actually a contender. Not because of military power (though they're fairly well equipped) but because terrain favours them in case of invasion. you gotta go through mountains along and invasion route.
Remember they've beat Europe before.
True, but Turkey is part of NATO so I already included them.
Turkey's greatest vulnerability is their Kurdish population. Which is a really fucked up thing to consider given what the Ottoman Empire's 'minorities' went through during WW1 and the years leading up to it.
Given that many of our Kurdish comrades are making use of the mountainous terrain in the southeast, making use of that advantage would require some cleansing.
The whole planet is fucked is my opinion
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