:france-cool:
"In January the general staff quietly established ten working groups to examine the country’s readiness for high-intensity war. French generals reckon that they have a decade or so to prepare for it. The groups cover everything from munition shortages to the resilience of society, including whether citizens are “ready to accept the level of casualties we have never seen since world war two”, says one participant. The spectre of high-end war is now so widespread in French military thinking that the scenario has its own acronym: HEM, or hypothèse d'engagement majeur (hypothesis of major engagement). The presumed opponents are unnamed, but analysts point not only to Russia, but also Turkey or a North African country."
Obviously, Turkey and France aren't exactly best buds. While the brain trust that uses /r/geopolitics, /r/neoliberal as NATO flairs think that just because these two are in an alliance of convenience they will be forever, it wouldn't surprise me if they actually got into some kind of conflict that would shatter NATO.
Not sure what France is gearing up for, the only actually sensical target is some north African country. Possibly Libya to "re-stabilize" it. I don't know if this type of gearing up is actually typical for France or not, either. It would be normal for the US, I guess.
The article mentioned an increase in troops in the Sahel region (think Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, etc.)
I think maybe with US decline being more recognized and cemented we'll see the other western states re-militarize. The UK also had a funding increase recently. But I honestly can't think of what the flashpoints of a real war would be at this point... Turkey and France and UK have some competition in North Africa and Cyprus but I don't think things are degrading fast enough to justify preparation for peer level warfare. Maybe it's just sabre rattling and a withdrawal of funding from Raytheon/US defense contractors to homegrown defense contractors as the bourgeois realize the US isn't going to be able to deliver on world police actions anymore.
The whole world just seems (is) less stable right now, so it's a logical time for people like generals to get worried about things like readiness rates, I think.
To conquer new markets, rate of profit is falling overtime and will lead to hoarding of money as there will be no more profitable investments to be found, this would lead to a crisis and to prevent this imperialist nations have to conquer new markets, but currently world is completely divided among imperialist powers, as it was before WWI, so the only possible option is a redivison of the world through war among the imperialist powers of the world. Examples of it can be seen in growing tensions between EU, US, Russia and China, for example Macron calling for establishment of european army, and also aggressive US diplomacy against China. In short the great powers of the world are preparing for world war 3, because if they dont they will face crisis of overaccumulation.
Good analysis.
The rate of profit's decline can also be reversed temporarily by the destruction of inefficient capital - and WAR is a really good way of destroying old capital stock. I honestly don't know how else they'd do it besides a government bailout of badly performing capital stock and then a subsequent literal destruction of that stock or just warehousing. You can really see this principal in action with US Government Cheese, the bourgeois state buys up tons of dairy because it is massively overproduced and if allowed to enter the market would crash in price (and cause a bunch of dairy farmers in key states like Wisconsin to get pissed off), so the state buys up this milk and will literally just dump it or turn it into the absolute grossest cheese and let it sit in stores for ages before distributing it to the poor. The same principle applies to US war industry production, like the government buys way too many tanks that end up sitting in empty lots, but that ones a little more on the nose - this general principle of bourgeois state destruction of produced goods applies to everything including food.
France is not currently at peace. In order to maintain and expand their colonial empire France has waged bloody wars in South East Asia and Africa for most of the past century.
There are 15 West and Central African nations, with a combined population of over 350 million and combined GDP of over US $250 billion that are still effectively ruled from Paris. Their currency is called the CFA Franc, which used to stand for the Franc of The French Colonies of Africa. In 1958 the acronym (but none of the terms of course) was changed to stand for the Franc of the French Community of Africa and then in 1960 to the Franc of the African Financial Community, but the acronym has always remained the same. France dictates their economic policy, the CFA Franc is backed by France, minted in France in quantities determined by the French, and on threat of France immediately stopping backing their national currency the nations using the Franc required to trade almost solely with France (France controls over 80% of those country's exports), keep over 50% of their foreign assets in French treasuries at all times, and pay an annual tribute justified as "interest" on the debt they owe France for the favour of being colonised that they will never be allowed to fully repay.
France is infamous for not giving up its colonial possessions without a bloody scorched earth fight and that has not changed. Currently, in Mali and the Central African Republic two of those 15 nations in the CFA zone, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad and the Coalition of Patriots for change are actively fighting coalitions led by France in bloody anti-colonial civil wars. The rebel groups are mostly not communists, some are Christian or Islamic extremists, and there are often stark racial motivations and divisions, but France opposes all of them, and since 2020, even the largest Christian and Islamic militia groups have stopped fighting each other and are focused largely on fighting France and the French backed colonial governments.
Even those CFA countries whose people are not at war with France have been trying for years to get their currency rebacked by China and pegged to the Renminbi and have received large loans from China which has reduced their economic dependence on France and in effect reduced the threat of France unilaterally ceasing to back the currency as if China will still take it as payment for those billions of dollars in debt then if not in name it is at least in practice some backing. Incidentally this is also what a lot of the western media concern trolling about "debt trap diplomacy" and "Chinese colonialism" in Western and Central Africa is actually about. Economically and politically, France has been fighting these efforts tooth and nail, in 2019 there was a proposal supported by all CFA zone members to replace the CFA Franc entirely with a Renminbi back ECO which France successfully captured and defeated into a redivision of the CFA Franc into a Central and Western CFA Franc.
If there's a war between France and China or France and Turkey I highly doubt it would be in France, China or Turkey. It would almost certainly be in West or Central Africa, where there are already proxy wars simmering. To my knowledge China isn't currently funding any rebel groups, but there aren't many who'd say no, and there are a lot of "security contractors" guarding Chinese state owned enterprises in CFA nations. Turkey is almost certainly funding all of the Islamic ones. This announcement seems like the French military is trying to signal that they're able and willing to escalate those conflicts just as far as any of their opponents.
They're planning a high intensity war with casualties unlike anything we've seen since WWII, and their opponents are unarmed? What the fuck?
Unnamed, not unarmed. But it's still a wtf moment 'cause like, what exactly do they think is about to happen that's causing them to look into preparing for WW2 level casualties?
Realistically, the only wars that could produce those kinds of casualties would be wars against countries that have a (roughly) comparable level of military power to France, which would basically rule out any countries that aren't in Europe/NATO except Israel, Iran, DPRK, ROK, Japan, Australia and China. Vietnam, Cuba and Venezuela could probably also be included owing to their massive reservist/irregular forces, though they would be more useful in a guerilla war rather than the high-intesity war France seems to be preparing for.
Edit: Brazil, Mexico, India and Pakistan also have militaries that are at least comparable to France, so they could be added as well.
Turkey is actually a contender. Not because of military power (though they're fairly well equipped) but because terrain favours them in case of invasion. you gotta go through mountains along and invasion route.
Remember they've beat Europe before.
Turkey's greatest vulnerability is their Kurdish population. Which is a really fucked up thing to consider given what the Ottoman Empire's 'minorities' went through during WW1 and the years leading up to it.
Given that many of our Kurdish comrades are making use of the mountainous terrain in the southeast, making use of that advantage would require some cleansing.
The whole planet is fucked is my opinion
I hope this is just some bored generals playing wargames and working each other up and not a real plan to attack someone.
Need more bombs to airstrike weddings in Mali I guess.
:france-cool:
A theory i think a lot of people are missing in here in the comments is Climate Change. France is likely preparing itself to defend against the tide of people who will be displaced and threaten them (as climate refugees should).
Yeah, this is my bet too. I have a bad feeling we're going to see a lot of western countries beefing up their arsenals quietly.
Daily reminder that the US once planned to go to war with Great Britain, usually war plans are just an excuse to get more money and maaaaybe militarize the homefront.
Good analysis from August 2020 about some recent tensions.
France has been against Turkey's entrance into the EU since 2008 (here's a recent article where Macron has kept up that same anti-Turkey stance). France has been pretty strong against Armenian genocide denial, which obviously annoys Turkey because they continue to deny what they did to the Armenians 100 years ago wasn't genocide (it was). France doesn't like that Turkey has been getting more proactive in Libya, which France views as its "traditional" sphere. France has also been quite islamophobic of late (here's some article about some recent tensions, but Macron has been cribbing notes from the Front National's playbook wrt islamophobia), which obviously bristles against Turkey. There is also a small (about a couple hundred thousand people), but fairly active, contingent of ethnic Kurds in France who do have some level of contact with the PKK (which Turkey really doesn't like), don't know how much that last one has anything to do with tensions but its something to note.
As comrade Mardoniush noted, France does also maintain a sense of imperial destiny over former colonies in West Africa as well, so when Turkey intervenes it does threaten their interests (read, it interrupts or threatens the flow of capital and wealth from the capitalist hinterlands in west and north Africa to the imperial metropole in France). You can read up on Michael Robert's analysis of modern financialized imperialism if you're curious about how France still maintains a modern debt-based colonial empire.
Immigration policy, Syria policy ("stay on your side of the straight line!"), general Turkish dickishness that happens to step on French Colonial interests.
Remember unlike the rest of Europe France has basically maintained its status as an imperial power using unequal treaties and colonial national debt.
