Geopolitical Economy Hour: Did Israel and the US win in Syria?

An interesting discussion by Mohammad Marandi and Radhika Desai which, via a sober analysis, seeks to dispel a lot of the triumphalism from those on the pro-genocide side, and bitter resignation from those on the left. I shall summarize the video below:

• First, we start from a quote from Responsible Statecraft which more-or-less concludes that Israel is (at least at the current moment) triumphant in the Middle East. A key part of their assessment is that the Shia movement has been crippled, which is the first sign that things are amiss in their conclusion (much of the Resistance is Sunni). What else is wrong?
• Marandi remarks that the events in Syria are a tactical victory for the US, Israel, and Erdogan (not Turkiye as a whole), but this victory is unstable and likely to disintegrate over time, for the following reasons.
• The question for the US is: should they stay or go? If they go, this presents issues for maintaining this instability for Israel's benefit. If they stay, this presents an issue for Jolani, because the US's purpose inside Syria is explicitly to weaken it (they are stealing Syria's oil to ensure that pro-Resistance forces have less resources to work with).
• The question for Erdogan is: can he continue to exert leverage over Jolani now that he has performed a successful uprising and has western diplomats knocking on his door?
• The question for Jolani is: how much humiliation can he - and Syria - take from Israel stealing their territory and bombing their weapons stockpiles? This will naturally cause resistance to once again rise up against HTS and Jolani. Additionally, Syria still has plenty of groups that are internally vying for power and has plenty of economic problems that cannot be fixed quickly. In fact, there could be a new civil war between the different factions inside Syria and even between groups in HTS. This is on top of the returning refugee groups from Turkiye.

• The key mistake for Israel is the delegitimization of their new pet regime in Syria. What Netanyahu should have done instead is not undermine Jolani and held off on the annexations, and instead done all they could to stabilize and strengthen them (like with Jordan and Egypt). This is on top of the obvious problems for the IDF trying to occupy territory with an increasingly dysfunctional and degraded army after their continued defeats against Hezbollah and Hamas.
• Iran and Russia did the right thing in a bad situation by pulling out without further commitment of resources, as Assad or his generals seemed unwilling to fight for themselves to maintain control of their section of the country. It would be too much to say that this was part of Iran's grand plan or anything like that, but by not holding desperately onto Assad and instead deciding to let them go once, say, Aleppo or Homs had fallen, Iran has avoided falling into an unnecessary trap.

• The timing of dangerous gambles/events in Ukraine and the Middle East do appear to be a ploy by the Biden administration to create fait accomplis for Trump's administration; either to ensure they keep the project going, or at least to complicate and delay an eventual resolution on the side of Russia and the Resistance.
• Iran is a stronger country than 8 years ago in terms of foreign relations with non-Western countries, and will be harder to isolate than before. Western sanctions will still present many difficulties, but not as existential as before (so long as China and Russia are in their court).
• Iran is also a stronger country militarily than 8 years ago, and will set the world on fire if Trump (or, indeed, Biden, with a couple weeks to go) tries anything too stupid. It will be too dangerous for the US and especially Israel to start a war against Iran, and Iran's position as the "hub" and suppliers of weapons and expertise means that the Resistance will continue to function relatively well (and has not been "defeated" or anything like that).

absolutely disgusting and perplexing tidings from the local innkeeper, whom hath received word from the yearly merchant caravan that Genghis Khan, that devil of the far east, doth hath in his possession a keffiyeh, a Quran, Mein Kampf, and the instructions (ripped straight from an almanac of latest alchemical discoveries) on bomb construction

China donates 70 tons of equipment to Cuba to restore its electric system

The People’s Republic of China has donated almost 70 tons of power generator parts and accessories to Cuba, aiming to contribute to the recovery of the Caribbean island’s electricity system.

The materials arrived in the country on Sunday (29) and were received by China’s ambassador to Cuba, Hua Xin, and Cuba’s deputy ministers of Foreign Trade and Investment, Déborah Rivas, and Energy and Mining, Tatiana Amarán.

According to Ambassador Xin, the shipment is part of China’s second assistance package in 2024 to help restore Cuba’s electricity generation capacity to around 400 megawatts (MW). As part of an “emergency project list,” the donations were included to provide Cuba with effective and rapid aid according to what the Chinese government calls “convenience for the most urgent.”

...

The donations come as the Caribbean country is facing a serious energy crisis that has worsened in recent months. This year, Cuba has suffered three total blackouts in the national electricity system, leaving the country completely in the dark. Currently, power cuts are becoming more and more constant, affecting over 40% of the population daily. The situation has seriously damaged economic activity and the population’s quality of life.

Even with this and the photovoltaic donations, it feels like China is very squeamish about helping Cuba that much. Quite disappointing. Perhaps as the US keeps driving forward on sanctions on China, they'll increasingly not care about potential consequences, but until then, Cuba suffers.

On top of this:

F-35 maker’s stock downgraded after alleged China’s 6th-gen fighter debut: US media

Stock of US arms firm Lockheed Martin, maker of the fifth-generation fighter jet F-35, was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $523, down from $611. An analyst at the bank named "China's combat aircraft modernization efforts" as a reason behind the decision, after videos emerged online suspected of showing alleged China's six-generation fighter jet.

Deutsche Bank says its lost conviction in its original upgrade thesis from July, and struggles to find new reasons to remain constructive on the shares, US news outlet Business Insider reported on Thursday.

"We're downgrading Lockheed to Hold [from Buy] as we feel our prior thesis struggles to hold water and we have increased concern on the long-term support for F-35 in the face of China's combat aircraft modernization efforts," US news outlet Barron's quoted Deutsch Bank analyst Scott Deuschle as saying.

Deuschle said he sees "the reveal of further advancements in combat aircraft capabilities by China as potentially undermining long-term [Department of Defense] demand for the F-35 aircraft."

Pridnestrovie has been paralyzed by Ukraine.

The cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers.

The mainly Russian-speaking territory of about 450,000 people, which split from Moldova in the 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed, has suffered a painful and immediate hit from Wednesday's cut-off of Russian gas supplies to central and eastern Europe via Ukraine.

Transnistria has for several years paid nothing for supplies from Russian gas giant Gazprom under a tacit understanding with Moscow. Russia however counts the cost of the supplies as foreign debt for Moldova.

"All industrial enterprises are idle, with the exception of those engaged in food production - that is, directly ensuring food security for Transnistria," Sergei Obolonik, first deputy prime minister of the region, told a local news channel.

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Ukraine had allowed Russia to keep pumping gas across its territory despite nearly three years of war, and was earning up to $1 billion a year in transit fees. But Kyiv refused to renew a five-year deal that expired on 1 January.

US LNG exports soar, Europe remaining the main destination

US LNG exports reached near record levels in December, rising to 8.5 million metric tonnes (MT) as two new plants started, and driving up full-year shipments 4.5% over 2023.

In 2024 Europe accounted for 55% of total US LNG exports, 34% of total US exports went to Asia while the next 11% went mainly to Latin America with a few cargoes to the Middle East, mainly to Egypt and Jordan, LSEG data showed.

I still don't really understand why Biden was considered decent on climate change, US hydrocarbon production continues climbing higher regardless of who's president.

China's gonna reach 50,000 kilometers of high speed rail this year.

As of 2024, high-speed lines accounted for 30 per cent of the national railway operating mileage of 162,000km, a significant increase from the 20 per cent proportion reported in 2017.

With the first high-speed passenger line only opening in 2008, achieving the milestone in 2025 would indicate an extraordinary pace of expansion.

US considers rule that could restrict or ban drones with Chinese tech

US President Joe Biden’s administration is considering proposing a rule to cut China out of the drone supply chain, the latest move in the escalating trade and tech decoupling between the world’s two largest economies.

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The move came hours after Beijing announced export bans on 28 American companies, including leading manufacturers of defence systems like Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, to an export control list to “safeguard national security and interests”.

“Acute threats” from China and Russia may “offer our adversaries the ability to remotely access and manipulate these devices, exposing sensitive US data”, the Commerce Department said in a statement.

Hey everyone, was gonna post this like five hours ago but the site was down lol.

To continue on the idea of a reading club: If anybody has any recommendations for broad books on geopolitics then I'd be down to hear them. I've been told that Super Imperialism is a tricky read right off the bat, so we could instead:

a) start with something that starts from a more basic level like Lenin's Imperialism, albeit perhaps less applicable to the specificities of the current moment b) start with a book that's actually more recent than Super Imperialism, like Desai's Geopolitical Economy, which I have read and I can say requires only the prior knowledge that somebody who frequents this site would likely have c) start with something else entirely, if there's any suggestions. d) just stick with Super Imperialism, like @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net is urging us to do all the time.

I recognize that book clubs are one of those things where you have like a hundred people join in and then by the time you're halfway through the book, there's like five people left. I'm the kind of loser who takes summarized notes on the books he reads, so my plan would be to release my chapter summaries as we go so that even if you cannot be assed to actually read a book, you can still benefit from the gist of it. Starting with b) would be advantageous because I'd only have to clean up my current notes.

I will actually start posting again soon lmao, just getting my sources back together again and catching up with what's been going on

Next thread here.

Hey everybody, I'm back from sitting atop a mountain and meditating on the meaning of life, reality, and the goddamn news for a few weeks. I'll be getting back into the swing of posting here over the next few days.

I don't have anything to announce, but I do want to gauge interest on a "bookclub" here in the news megathread, the idea being to go through a book like Super Imperialism and other geopolitically relevant books as a community. It would give us something to do other than doomscroll, and get us all on the same theoretical grounding (from which we can then argue with each other at a more enlightened level).

Next news thread here:

https://hexbear.net/post/4151797

Next thread here.

I think 72 trillion has been purposely avoiding hexbear because one or more admins have gone fucking insane and are banning tons of long time users for made up issues.

To whoever posted this, I haven't been purposefully avoiding Hexbear lately because of the admins, I've been purposefully avoiding Hexbear lately because the comments have generally been unnecessarily pessimistic and unproductive. I'm not gonna spend much times in places where the vibe is merely documenting the thousand myriad ways in which the world is screwed and it's all hopeless; I prefer spending time analyzing those thousand myriad ways and how they could be overcome and what the likely course of action will be based on historical comparisons. Informed despair is still just despair.

With the fall of Syria, Nasrallah's assassination, and the death of Raisi, I've figured out how the Resistance media operates.

1. If imperialist media is reporting something and there is no reporting on it at all by Resistance media, it is probably false.
2. If imperialist media is reporting something and Resistance media is explicitly denying it, it is very possibly true.
3. If imperialist media is reporting something and Resistance media is explicitly denying it and there's rumors from channels in the know that it's true, then it's almost certainly true and they are figuring out the best moment to report it.

To sum it up: If it's all clear, there's nothing to fear; if they deny, get ready to cry.

you can't even have damascus anymore. because of woke

Well, if you can't set up your government-in-exile in Florida then Moscow isn't too bad. Give climate change a couple decades and they might have similar temperatures and climates

Starting up the next news mega early given the bombshell that's happened.

Hezbollah literally just defeated the Israeli army, what on god green's earth are you talking about

if Netanyahu was currently getting a tan in Beirut I could understand this position, but they couldn't even take Khiam. The Resistance is not only not defeated, it's actually still stronger than Israel and has more achievements under its belt. It's taken over a year for Israel to achieve two meaningful goals (collapse of Syria, detach Gaza and Lebanon fronts) while the Resistance has been knocking out Israeli air defense and military sites and tanks and vehicles and causing untold economic and social damage to Israel since October 7th, and now suddenly it all means nothing? All those tanks magically repaired, all that tourism money replenished, all the Zionist soldiers risen from the grave, all those air defense missiles un-fired?

We aren't at the end of the war. We're not even at the beginning of the end. We're at the end of the beginning, and we have years to go yet. Strap in.