Image is of container ships waiting outside the canal. While there is usually some number of ships waiting for passage, the number has increased significantly lately.


In order to move ships through the Panama Canal, water is needed to fill the locks. The water comes from freshwater lakes, which are replenished by rainfall. This rainfall hasn't been coming, and Lake Gatun, the largest one, is at near record low levels.

Hundreds of ships are now in a maritime traffic jam, unable to cross the canal quickly. Panama is attempting to conserve water and have reduced the number of transits by 20% per day, among other measures. The Canal's adminstrators have warned that these drought conditions will remain for at least 10 months.

It is unlikely that global supply chains will be catastrophically affected, at least this year. Costs may increase for consumers in the coming months, especially for Christmas, but by and large goods will continue to flow, around South America if need be. Nonetheless, projecting trends over the coming years and decades, you can imagine how this is yet another nudge by climate change towards dramatic economic, environmental, and political impacts on the world at large. It also might prompt discussions inside various governments about nearshoring, and the general vulnerability of global supply chains - especially as the United States tries, bafflingly, to go to war with China.


After some discussion in the last megathread about building knowledge of geopolitics, some of us thought it might be an interesting idea to have a Country of the Week - essentially, I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. More detail in this comment.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Okay, look, I got a little carried away. Monday's update usually covers the preceding Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but I went ahead and did all of last week. If people like a more weekly structure then I might try that instead, if not, then I'll go back to the Mon-Wed-Fri schedule.

Links and Stuff

The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    ·
    edit-2
    10 months ago

    Inspired by @MultigrainCerealista@hexbear.net's comment here, I am starting two initiatives:

    The first is recommendations for a geographically and geopolitically themed list of literature. Broad pieces on the nature of imperialism, capitalism, communism, etc are great, and recommend any if you have any ideas, but I want to focus in on the more specific works about regions, countries, ethnicities, movements, etc. Not just hand-wavey knowledge about colonialism but how it has actually affected the people of X country.

    The second, to help facilitate the first, is a Country of the Week system where essentially I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with effortposts, books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. You don't have to reply to this comment, though you can if you want, you can post it anywhere in the thread.

    As suggested by @MultigrainCerealista@hexbear.net, factors you might want to pay attention to are:

    • Who are the main political actors? Are they compradors, nationalists, international socialists, something else?

    • What are the most salient domestic political issues; those issues that repeatedly shape elections over the last 10, 20 years. Every country has its quirks that complicate analysis - for example, Brexit in the UK.

    • What is the country's history? You don't have to go back a thousand years if that's not relevant, and I'm counting "history" as basically anything that has happened over a year ago.

    • What factions exist, historically and currently? If there is an electoral system, what are the major parties and their demographic bases? Are there any minor parties with large amounts of influence? Independence movements? Religious groups?

    • How socially progressive or conservative are they? Is there equality for different ethnic groups, or are some persecuted? Do they have LGBTQIA+ rights? Have they improved over time, or gotten worse?

    • What role do foreign powers play in the country’s politics and economy? Is there a particular country nearby or far away that is nearly inseparable from them, for good or bad reasons? Is their trade dominated by exports/imports to one place? Are they exploited, exploiters, or something in between?

    • If applicable, what is the influence of former colonial relationships on the modern economy and politics?

    • Is the country generally stable? Do you think there will be a coup at some point in the future, and if so, what faction might replace them?

    This week's country is Libya! On Sundays from now on, I will put a comment up asking if anybody has any pertinent suggestions for next week's country.

    • Kaputnik [he/him]
      ·
      10 months ago

      I just started reading it, but the book "Drug Cartels Do Not Exist" by Oswaldo Zavala would be pretty good for this. It's about how American news and entertainment media creates the image of coherent and organized drug cartels as a enemy to rally around in order to support capitalist interests in Latin America and Mexico more specifically. People here might have heard of Zavala before because he appeared on an episode of Trueanon. I don't know if it's available for free anywhere but here's a link to the description and the book itself: https://www.vanderbiltuniversitypress.com/9780826504661/drug-cartels-do-not-exist/

      • Parzivus [any]
        ·
        10 months ago

        Reminds me of how American media spun Al Qaeda before the Iraq war

      • CTHlurker [he/him]
        ·
        10 months ago

        So I can't access that book currently, but is the argument that the US invented the concept of the organized drug cartel wholesale, or that the West doesn't understand that any specific cartel is mostly just a loose grouping of self-interested narco-producers and traffickers.

        • Kaputnik [he/him]
          ·
          10 months ago

          More the second one, that the image of a centralised hierarchy led by an individual or small group of individuals is a product of US media. In reality the book argues cartels work more as independent groups in each region that aren't really beholden to a single boss like we'd see in something like Narcos or Sicario

          • CTHlurker [he/him]
            ·
            10 months ago

            Shortly after writing my comment I took the time to listen to the TrueAnon ep with the same author (Ep. 290 - "The Beast" I think it's called). And the author makes some pretty compelling points, in particular about the very term "cartel" being incredibly misleading as a name for it, especially given the propensity towards infighting that regularly happens. Also the quote from El Chapo's son was pretty funny in a dark way.

            Anyway what I'm saying is: Listen to TrueAnon on this, the author really seems to know his shit. Also Brace and Liz are somehow better at interviews than most other podcasts I listen to, which is strange.

            • Kaputnik [he/him]
              ·
              10 months ago

              Yes! That's the one I listened to as well that turned me onto the book. Hearing Zavala speak about the topic really made me realize how much of what I assumed to be truth about the drug trade was coming straight from US media

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
      hexagon
      M
      ·
      edit-2
      10 months ago

      To contribue to the COTW, I have this article by Vijay Prashad in 2020:

      The War in Libya Will Never End

      General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) continue to partly encircle Libya’s capital, Tripoli. Not only does the LNA threaten Tripoli, but it is within striking distance of Libya’s third-largest city, Misrata. Both Tripoli and Misrata are in the hands of the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is backed by the United Nations and—most strongly—by Turkey. The second-largest city—Benghazi—is in the hands of Haftar’s LNA. Haftar’s LNA is backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Russia. There has always been a whiff of suspicion that Haftar himself is an old CIA asset—having lived under the shadow of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, for decades. What the NATO war on Libya did to that country is to turn it into a battlefield of other people’s ambitions, to reduce Libya into a chessboard for a multidimensional game that is hard to explain and even harder to end.

      LNA vs. GNA

      On January 19, the United Nations and the German government held a conference in Berlin on the Libyan question. Curiously, the two belligerent parties from Libya were in Berlin but did not attend the conference. General Haftar of the LNA and Fayez Serraj of the GNA stayed in their hotels to be briefed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the UN representative on Libya Ghassan Salamé. In 2012, the UN had said that no conference should be held that is not “inclusive” and does not have the stakeholders at the table. Nonetheless, the point of this exercise was not so much to create a deal within Libya as to stop the import of arms and logistics into Libya. “We commit to refraining from interference in the armed conflict or in the internal affairs of Libya,” agreed the external parties, “and urge all international actors to do the same.” External backers of each of the sides—Egypt, France, Russia, Turkey, the United States—were all signatories of this agreement. You can imagine that none of them will take it seriously.

      Merkel hastened to Istanbul after the Berlin conference to solidify the pact she has made with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who then flew to Algeria to say that he would not appreciate external intervention into Libya. It is not Erdoğan alone who sounded bewildering—all the other leaders who came to Berlin made similar remarks. You stay out of Libya, they said, but we will have to be involved in any way we think appropriate. Turkey has provided the GNA with arms and logistical assistance, and it has helped bring a few hundred Syrian jihadis to Libya to assist the GNA-backed militias.

      The UN released a statement recently with a clear indication that the deal is not worth its paper. “Over the last ten days,” the UN notes, “numerous cargo and other flights have been observed landing at Libyan airports in the western and eastern parts of the country providing the parties with advanced weapons, armoured vehicles, advisers and fighters.” It does not name the countries that continue to violate the embargo, but everyone knows who they are.

      Emboldened by his backers, Haftar’s forces tested the GNA and its assorted militia groups in the outskirts of Misrata over the past few days. The LNA had taken up positions in al-Wishka, but they made a foray into Abu Grein, which is on the road to Misrata. The ceasefire that was supposed to be honored was violated, as the GNA Army’s spokesperson Mohammed Gununu said on Sunday. Haftar’s spokesperson Ahmed al-Mismari said that there is no political solution for Libya; the only solution is through “rifles and ammunition.” It is a clear statement that this war is not going to be ended at the UN or in Berlin. It will have to end in Misrata and in Tripoli.

      Turkey vs. Saudi Arabia

      Several years ago, when it became clear that Libyans who were close to the Muslim Brotherhood might come to power, Saudi Arabia went to work against them. The Saudis have made it clear that they will not tolerate any more Muslim Brotherhood forces coming to power in North Africa or West Asia. The Saudi embargo on Qatar, the Saudi interference in Tunisia, the Saudi intervention in Egypt to remove the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi, and now the Saudi backing of Haftar provides a clear indication of the Saudi intention to rid the region of the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey and Qatar have been the main sponsors of the Muslim Brotherhood; Saudi Arabia has dented Qatar’s ambition, but it has not been able to tether Turkey. The war in Libya is—apart from the clueless intervention of the Europeans—a war between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, with Russia playing a curious role in between these powers.

      Neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey will relinquish their backing of the LNA and the GNA, respectively. No one makes any public noises about this, although everyone knows that it is these powers that are behind this horrendous new phase of the conflict ever since NATO entered Libya in 2011 and sent the country into a situation of permanent war. The UN has done the calculations. Since April, in Tripoli alone there are 220 schools closed and at least 116,000 children with no education. Schools, universities, hospitals—all working on reduced hours or closed.

      Oil and Refugees

      Haftar made his move on Tripoli in April 2019. He felt that he not only had the backing of the most important powers, but that he had already taken charge of several oil fields and squeezed the Tripoli government. His rush to Tripoli, dramatic in the first few weeks, then stalled in the outskirts of the capital. He is obdurate, unconcerned that his war will simply continue the attrition of social life that had begun in the 1990s and accelerated after the NATO war in 2011.

      On January 19, the LNA and its allies seized the Sharara and El Feel oil fields; both of them produce a third of Libya’s oil, Sharara being the largest single field in this country. Oil production from Libya fell to less than 300,000 barrels per day from over a million barrels per day previous. The Libyan National Oil Company—controlled by the government in Tripoli—has now forced an embargo on oil exports from Libya. This is a blow to Europe, which relies on the sweet Libyan oil as much as it has relied upon Iranian and Russian energy sources—both blocked by U.S.-driven sanctions.

      European Hypocrisy

      Europe wants the oil but does not want the refugees. A UN report was recently released on the LNA’s bombardment of a refugee detention center in Tajoura on July 2, 2019. That attack, by LNA aircraft, killed 53 migrants and refugees who had come from Algeria, Chad, Bangladesh, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia. After the jet dropped its bombs on the Daman complex, there were “bodies everywhere, and body parts sticking out from under the rubble. Blood [was] all around.” The migrants and refugees who survived remained in the complex. Four days later, they went on hunger strike. There have been several murders since July 2019, mainly of refugees shot by guards as they tried to leave the various detention centers that sit along the Libyan coastline and in Tripoli. There is no proper account of the total number of refugees and migrants in detention.

      The European Union (EU) has been paying the Tripoli government and militia groups to hold these refugees and migrants in Libya rather than let them travel across the Mediterranean Sea. Europe has taken no responsibility for its role in the NATO war in 2011, which destabilized Libya; it has, instead, militarized the refugee crisis in Libya by using the militias. Operation Sophia of the EU brought European ships into the Mediterranean Sea to stop oil and refugee smuggling from Libya to Europe; there is now interest in restarting this policy. In Berlin, the EU’s High Representative Josep Borrell told the Süddeutsche Zeitung that “Libya is a cancer whose metastases have spread across the entire region.” This is the attitude of Europe: how to contain the crisis and let it remain within the Libyan borders. It is a shocking statement.

      I Have No Illness

      In the midst of Libya’s war against Italian colonialism a century ago, the poet Rajab Hamad Buhwaish al-Minifi wrote a poem—“Ma Bi Marad” (“No Illness but This Place”)—about the torment of his society. This is a poem that is often recited, never far from the lips of Libyans who know their long and difficult history. The line that repeats often in the poem, “Ma bi marad ghair marad al-Egaila” (“I have no illness but this place of Egaila”), seems apt for Libya today, a people abandoned to this war that will never end, a people buried in oil and fear, a people who are in search of the home that has been taken from them.

      • CarmineCatboy [he/him]
        ·
        10 months ago

        rather surprised this starts mentioning that russia backs haftat, when arguably france has been the biggest backer all along. they even gave the man a medal.

    • Parsani [love/loves, comrade/them]
      ·
      10 months ago

      I have a book to suggest: Imperialism in the 21st Century by Smith, published by Monthly Review. It covers a lot, but the first chapter can be read alone as it details very well the imperialistic relationship between the core and periphery through three comoddities: T-shirts, iPhones, and coffee, the first of which being the most interesting imo. It also covers ways in which trade unions within the core have implicit interests in worsening this exploitative relationship, but that may be in chapter two.

      The whole book is dense and packed with information. For me, it really made concrete what imperialism is today. Available free here: https://resistir.info/livros/imperialism_john_smith.pdf

      • boardbyboard [comrade/them]
        ·
        10 months ago

        The central point norfield is making cannot be emphasized enough, because so many liberals and socialists in imperialist countries try very hard to put it out of their minds. h&M makes handsome profits, to be sure, but these are dwarfed by the state’s take, once taxes on wages and profits of h&M and suppliers of services to it are added to its VaT 14 iMPerialiSM in The T wenT y-FirST CenTury receipts. in 2013, the tariffs charged by the u.S. government on its apparel imports from Bangladesh alone exceeded the total wages received by the workers who made these goods. The state uses this money, as we know, to finance foreign wars, health care, and Social Security, and even returns a few pennies to the poor countries in the form of “foreign aid.” as Tony norfield argues, low wages in Bangladesh help explain “why the richer countries can have lots of shop assistants, delivery drivers, managers and administrators, accountants, advertising executives, a wide range of welfare payments and much else besides.”12 his blunt conclusion: “wage rates in Bangladesh are particularly low, but even the multiples of these seen in other poor countries point to the same conclusion: oppression of workers in the poorer countries is a direct economic benefit for the mass of people in the richer countries.”

        :settlers: moment

        • Parsani [love/loves, comrade/them]
          ·
          10 months ago

          Yeah, I like to recommend this book to people as it hits some points settlers does without the Maoist standard English and more data. But this book also implicates everyone living in the imperial core tbh

          • boardbyboard [comrade/them]
            ·
            10 months ago

            it's one of those things that I think appears accusatory but imo it's a matter-of-fact observation. You aren't born in the core with the opinion: 'I approve of my raised stature thanks to exploitation of the global south'. It's tough to describe, yes all proles in the core are 'implicated' but I give those kinds of statements a charitable reading maybe. In another way, I think it's meant to enlighten rather than guilt

            • Parsani [love/loves, comrade/them]
              ·
              10 months ago

              Yeah that's a good way to put it. It's tough for people, even those with more leftist politics in unions etc, to understand how economies in the core function on imperialist exploitation. It can really open your eyes to a larger frame of analysis then your own specific condition in the workplace, which is important

      • Dull_Juice [he/him]
        ·
        10 months ago

        That is an excellent book. The china chapter drove me nuts but otherwise is excellent

        • Parsani [love/loves, comrade/them]
          ·
          10 months ago

          It's been a while since I read it, so I can't really remember that part, but I may have just rolled my eyes and moved on lol. It was written in 2016, so quite a bit has changed even since then.

          • Dull_Juice [he/him]
            ·
            10 months ago

            Yeah that's pretty much what I did as well. I read it I think 4 years ago now, I just remember reading that section