1. The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders

  2. Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah

  3. Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose

These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.

Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?

  • AssortedBiscuits [they/them]
    ·
    9 months ago

    All true, but I would add one more that's probably the most important factor:

    Israel is deeply divided. The Sword of al-Quds in 2021 exposed massive fault lines that only deepen two years later. Plenty of people who aren't Palestinians loathe Netanyahu for various reasons. This division means the risk of mutinies. Once the body bags start coming, many soldiers will either refuse to go in or straight up mutiny. And once the military mutinies, it's game over. Netanyahu understands this very real possibility, which is why they're just bombing Gaza back to the stone age. But the bombs and missiles will eventually run out and they'll have to enter in Gaza one way or another.

    • usernamesaredifficul [he/him]
      ·
      9 months ago

      mandatory military service also means that the losses won't be confined to volunteers or military families. Support for war drops off pretty quick when it's your sons and daughters being shot at (except in the families which define their lifestyle around military service which in my opinion is a sickening human sacrifice ritual where people effectively sell their own children)