So this post is massively smug about it... but isn't there a bit of accuracy to it, too? Like, what's to stop the US from ratcheting up the tension so that they have something to distract from Israel and the stagnant Ukrainian front?
I’m sure it could fairly easily be stretched to 6 layered proxie wars and by the time you get to number 7 probably at least one of the previous ones would be wrapping up.
You just gotta go in with that old can do Kissinger attitude!
I figure that ratcheting up tension still requires resources that are being steadily depleted by both ukraine and israel. Consider the various stories about the difficulty of supplying aide to both nations at once, and consider how it would be even harder to have a third straw in the milkshake, so to speak.
It's not impossible the US could do something though, I just think they're genuinely stretched a bit thin right now.
Consider the various stories about the difficulty of supplying aide to both nations at once
True, but also do we know how accurate those stories are? I think it could just be the US is tired of Ukraine and all the whining about not having enough bombs left is just an excuse to calm the Libs down about us not wanting to foot the bill anymore.
Others have said munitions shortages, and while that would be a consideration in a long war the US could definitely degrade Venezuela using existing active stocks. The real problem is more serious.
The US has 9 active carrier strike groups, Due to maintenance, logistics and rotation issues (as well as keeping a home fleet for each ocean), this means it can have 3 carrier groups ready for active operations at any time.
1 has to be in the Pacific for obvious Geopolitical reasons. 2 are chilling off Israel/ The Black Sea, They in theory could get one from Japan or San Diego, but the only real one available is CVN71, which is undergoing sea trials for the F35 and isn't staffed or stocked for deployment. They're fucked unless they want to abandon the gulf (and let Yemen hoist the pirate flag on Israeli shipping.) or Abandon the Mediterranean (and let the Russian Pacific or Baltic fleets reinforce the Black Sea as soon as they can pay off Turkey)
They got nothing unless they have international support either for intervention, or for taking over a role supporting Israel, which is politically untenable.
The real question is if the French (who own the slice next door) lack chill. Bet they've been waiting to try out their shiny pocket carrier.
Bet they’ve been waiting to try out their shiny pocket carrier.
I doubt they will do anything, there's not much anything for them in it, they have unrest at home and they partially stripped their regular army weapons to send them to Ukraine. They didn't do anything against Niger which is much more important to them, so it's even less likely they will move even the Navy to the other side of Atlantic.
what's to stop the US from ratcheting up the tension so that they have something to distract from Israel and the stagnant Ukrainian front?
They gave their entire land war stockpile to Ukraine and are in the process of giving their entire air war stockpile to Israel. What's stopping them is a very real limitation on resources.
I'm no military expert but doesn't the US still have the navy and it's tons of planes and missiles? Considering Venezuela isn't too far of a sail away I'd be concerned about that.
The main thing it hasn't used in Ukraine/Israel would be ballistic missiles yes. But I think these are committed resources they won't use for anything because of Taiwan and the South China Sea issues. They can be considered resources that are tied up in "deterrence".
Yeah. Here the thing I think Venezuela wild win I just thing it could cost them more than some people here think. The US could just lob missiles from battleships at them and there isn't much they could do in response.
There is definitely some risk involved with what they're doing. I'm a fence sitter currently. It's either going to be remembered as a ballsy good move or the biggest mistake ever with absolutely no in-between.
Yeah I just need to spend more time reading before I come off the fence really. I didn't really settle into a position on donbas until a few weeks prior to the invasion despite having months and months of troops build up and nothing happening on the border. I don't really like having opinions when I don't feel fully informed. And I feel like I've only done the slightest amount of research on the origins of the dispute so far.
So this post is massively smug about it... but isn't there a bit of accuracy to it, too? Like, what's to stop the US from ratcheting up the tension so that they have something to distract from Israel and the stagnant Ukrainian front?
There is only so many times you can start a new proxy war to distract from the other proxy wars going poorly.
Well, not with that attitude.
I’m sure it could fairly easily be stretched to 6 layered proxie wars and by the time you get to number 7 probably at least one of the previous ones would be wrapping up.
You just gotta go in with that old can do Kissinger attitude!
harry potter and the seven proxy wars
Barack Obama got peace nobel for something like 6 so that's a strong contender.
Good luck, I'm behind seven proxies!
I figure that ratcheting up tension still requires resources that are being steadily depleted by both ukraine and israel. Consider the various stories about the difficulty of supplying aide to both nations at once, and consider how it would be even harder to have a third straw in the milkshake, so to speak.
It's not impossible the US could do something though, I just think they're genuinely stretched a bit thin right now.
Do not underestimate Biden’s desire to start fights with the entire world. The man’s going out with a bang.
True, but also do we know how accurate those stories are? I think it could just be the US is tired of Ukraine and all the whining about not having enough bombs left is just an excuse to calm the Libs down about us not wanting to foot the bill anymore.
Others have said munitions shortages, and while that would be a consideration in a long war the US could definitely degrade Venezuela using existing active stocks. The real problem is more serious.
The US has 9 active carrier strike groups, Due to maintenance, logistics and rotation issues (as well as keeping a home fleet for each ocean), this means it can have 3 carrier groups ready for active operations at any time.
1 has to be in the Pacific for obvious Geopolitical reasons. 2 are chilling off Israel/ The Black Sea, They in theory could get one from Japan or San Diego, but the only real one available is CVN71, which is undergoing sea trials for the F35 and isn't staffed or stocked for deployment. They're fucked unless they want to abandon the gulf (and let Yemen hoist the pirate flag on Israeli shipping.) or Abandon the Mediterranean (and let the Russian Pacific or Baltic fleets reinforce the Black Sea as soon as they can pay off Turkey)
They got nothing unless they have international support either for intervention, or for taking over a role supporting Israel, which is politically untenable.
The real question is if the French (who own the slice next door) lack chill. Bet they've been waiting to try out their shiny pocket carrier.
I doubt they will do anything, there's not much anything for them in it, they have unrest at home and they partially stripped their regular army weapons to send them to Ukraine. They didn't do anything against Niger which is much more important to them, so it's even less likely they will move even the Navy to the other side of Atlantic.
NATO failed to beat Russia. Who knows how weak they really are, now?
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They gave their entire land war stockpile to Ukraine and are in the process of giving their entire air war stockpile to Israel. What's stopping them is a very real limitation on resources.
I'm no military expert but doesn't the US still have the navy and it's tons of planes and missiles? Considering Venezuela isn't too far of a sail away I'd be concerned about that.
The main thing it hasn't used in Ukraine/Israel would be ballistic missiles yes. But I think these are committed resources they won't use for anything because of Taiwan and the South China Sea issues. They can be considered resources that are tied up in "deterrence".
Yeah. Here the thing I think Venezuela wild win I just thing it could cost them more than some people here think. The US could just lob missiles from battleships at them and there isn't much they could do in response.
There is definitely some risk involved with what they're doing. I'm a fence sitter currently. It's either going to be remembered as a ballsy good move or the biggest mistake ever with absolutely no in-between.
At the end of the day we have no power to affect anything so all this is just worried speculation
Yeah I just need to spend more time reading before I come off the fence really. I didn't really settle into a position on donbas until a few weeks prior to the invasion despite having months and months of troops build up and nothing happening on the border. I don't really like having opinions when I don't feel fully informed. And I feel like I've only done the slightest amount of research on the origins of the dispute so far.