Image is of Yemen seizing the first ship in its blockade of Israel (the Galaxy Leader) with a helicopter raid.
Alternate title: What If It Was The Bab El-Womandeb And It Was Just For The Ladies?
Ansarallah is a key component of the broader Resistance movement, backed by Iran, and has been a stalwart member in engineering the ongoing collapse of Zionism. It has steadily escalated both its rhetoric and, rarely nowadays, its actions, proving that the mythical "red line" might actually exist in the world after all, after going MIA in both Russia and China. It has been striking first Israel-owned ships heading through the Bab el-Mandeb - the strait that leads into the Red Sea and then to the Suez Canal - and, recently, has demonstrated its promise that any ships that intend to dock in Israel will be attacked. While this is really only half a blockade, the cost of going around Africa is significant, and Western insurance companies really don't like it when their ships get blasted by missiles and drones. Several shipping companies have already stated their intention to alter/stop shipping routes through the Red Sea, trying to prompt the West to find a "solution".
Despite US naval presence in the area, Yemen possesses the ability to strike the oil refining facilities of the Gulf monarchies, leaving the US in a very difficult position. If they attack Yemen, then not only do Western ships risk being attacked directly, but those oil refineries may go up in smoke depending on if they help the West - and global oil prices will skyrocket, in an already declining world economy - and it might cost several Western leaders their leadership positions, including Biden himself. A regional war could ultimately tumble into worldwide chaos.
Equally, however, the US cannot afford to lose Israel. It is the single most important American imperial outpost, perhaps alongside Taiwan. If Zionism is destroyed as a local destabilizing influence, then the Russia-China-Iran axis will find itself in a leadership position over the region. Israeli military losses in Gaza increase every single day as they advance further into the labyrinth death trap under the obligation to show some kind of military victory, with Hamas' strategy of attrition taking its toll. And Hezbollah sits there, having destroyed most of the border infrastructure, silently threatening the obliteration of Israel's infrastructure under the rain of a hundred thousand missiles.
As world attention gradually shifts away from the Gaza genocide, we continue to approach the brink.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
It feels like we are teetering on the edge and we could drop any moment. All US military assets in the entire Pacific turned off their public radar transponders last night. 3 carrier groups at least congregating in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Reportedly tons of sensitive air assets have been moved into neighboring airbases. Immense pressure on the US military by global capital to restore freedom of movement in the Red Sea that's building more and more by the hour as global traffic gets backed up or re-routed.
The US either has to strike Yemen, or they have to buckle and yank Israel out of Gaza and enforce a ceasefire. One or the other pretty much has to happen in the next week or two. Which way will America choose? Ceasefire and 0 middle eastern hot wars or 2 hot wars at once?
America thinks it can scare ansar allah into submission and going away quietly with a show of force, but I don't see them backing down or stopping their attacks just because there's 3 carriers around them instead of 2.
The US is probably going to do something insanely stupid like strike Yemen on Christmas or New Years with some stealth aircraft. Got to make modern wars like videogames and movies, add in some symbolism.
ANSAR ALLAH TAKE MY ENERGY!! ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
it would be too embarrassing for them to stop the genocide and I'm not sure Israel would listen anyway. imo they're going to try to do what KSA couldn't
I don't disagree with your conclusion, but America could easily stop Israel if it wanted to (it doesn't want to currently). It would take a single phone call. Threaten to completely cut off all funds, all weapon sales, enact harsh targeted sanctions against Likud members and Bibi's administration, threaten to have CIA do regime change. All the pressure the US has no problem applying to say... Venezuela, Nicaragua or Belarus.
No need to threaten. Bibi's already controversial. America has half a dozen way to regime change Israel in two weeks and brush the whole war aside. It even lets Israel save face while backing out of Gaza.
Do you have a link to read about the transponders going dark?
https://t.me/TheMediterraneanMan/4008
From a purely strategic pov is unconditional support for the zionist entity really more important than keeping the suez canal open
No. But it does threaten losing their entire grasp on the middle east. And we've seen how these current neoliberals are utterly uncompromising and refuse to engage with realpolitik, they believe they should win at everything, always, or die trying.
They're going to take the "die trying" option.
Between what you said and one battalion of the Zionists' eliteTM Golani Brigade retreating from Gaza and Christmas approaching, there's so much tension and uncertainty in the air. It feels a lot like Oct 8th where no one knows what's going to happen but know that something is going to happen.
As I see it the yanks will have to choose war if they don't want to loose more credibility than they already have. Stopping the genocide in Palestine would be another defeat for the west and would embolden all sorts of antiimperialist actors by demonstrating how the evil empire can be defeated.
Going to war on the other hand can restore the sense that America is the invisible world police, at least for a while. Being a war president might also give Brandon some desperately needed popularity at home.
Sadly, my money is on more war.
If they go to war they accelerate their decline. They're essentially fucked and have no winning scenario, just desperately trying to maintain power as an empire where the peripheries are increasingly pushing the limits of that power.
These events are all going to suck and there is almost nothing we can do about them but the inevitability of all of this is the empire's contraction, as with every single other empire that has historically gone through the same thing.
But yes I agree more war is coming. I find it oddly preferable that the empire spirals out of control unable to exert its power properly anywhere compared with the controlled and planned confrontation with China like they previously wanted though. Not that it's totally off the table later on, but the longer it waits the less likely it becomes.
I can't imagine going to war with Yemen over Israel would be popular.
I think CNN showing injured Palestinian toddlers crying for their dead father is the canary in the coal mine for Israel. It shows that either a) Some people within the establishment are dissenting from the pro-Israel stance and are not being stopped or b) The establishment overall is preparing to jump ship.
Support for Israel is shrinking while support for Hamas is growing. They let Bernie say "ceasefire", they're losing chuds like Pierce Morgan. Any attempt to control the narrative has failed miserably. Israel just merked 3 of their own fucking hostages and their spokespeople are getting more unhinged by the day.
Nobody believes the "After Hamas genocides Israel, they'll come for the US next!" nonsense they tried to spread. Americans will not want to die for Israel and they probably don't even know what Yemen is. No way it would be popular.